YM! Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Recently I was looking at all the films out this January to March and from the looks of it, 8 will do over $100M domestic, if we include a breakout (like Boss Baby or GITS). We'd be at 9 films over $100M, with 2-3 films over $200M+, and 5-6 over $150M+. should we expect underperformance this summer, for amount of big hits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMan7 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I've got a better question, Is this another one of your clubs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, DMan7 said: I've got a better question, Is this another one of your clubs? Not making another club until after Easter at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMan7 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) OH good just wanted to make sure. Edited March 9, 2017 by DMan7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, DMan7 said: OH good just wanted to make sure. Even then, it will a club or two every two to three months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Bigger hits actually tend help films down the line because it exposes them to wider audiences with the trailers before the movies. People aren't going to skip out on a movie in May because they saw one in March. Competition effects more recent movies, as that's when the consumer is faced with a direct choice between movie A or B. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 There are still a few summer movies that will certainly be hits. Spider-Man will be a hit, Despicable Me 3 will be a hit, Pirates of the Caribbean will be a hit, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets will be a hit (hopefully), and the list goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Well the average moviegoer sees some 5-6 movies a year, right? Depends on whether you believe that demographic has seen more than their usual average by now and would suddenly stop once they've hit their usual limit. Or, if the films are appealing enough, they'll go anyway 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commonsense88 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I think May,June, and July will do just fine, August is going be awful compared to recent years unless something moves there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlborn Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, commonsense88 said: I think May,June, and July will do just fine, August is going be awful compared to recent years unless something moves there. Yep, I don't see any big hits for August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainJackSparrow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Guardians, Pirates, Transformers, and Despicable Me 3 all should do great business. Hopefully Alien, Wonder Woman, Cars 3, Spider Man, Apes, and Dunkirk can as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eevin Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's possible that this summer might be closer to 2014 than 2015/2016, but if it is it's definitely not because of the strong pre-summer season. We may have a lot of mid-range hits this year, but lest we forget last year we had 4 $300m+ films before May. We still had a record summer, though. People will go to see a movie based on if they want to. They're not going to stay away from Guardians of the Galaxy 2 because they went to see Beauty and the Beast a month before that. That being said, August will be pretty terrible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I still don't know why Fox doesn't move Kingsman 2 up to August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Beezy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Arlborn said: Yep, I don't see any big hits for August. It's weird. Last August saw a big hit with Suicide Squad opening the first weekend yet no one wants a notable movie there this August. Edited March 9, 2017 by Jay Beezy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caladbolg Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, YourMother said: Recently I was looking at all the films out this January to March and from the looks of it, 8 will do over $100M domestic, if we include a breakout (like Boss Baby or GITS). We'd be at 9 films over $100M, with 2-3 films over $200M+, and 5-6 over $150M+. should we expect underperformance this summer, for amount of big hits? That won't affect Summer movies though. Last year by the time May arrived (which is considered the start of the Summer movie season) there were already four $300m+ grossing movies, none which affected expected hits like Civil War and Finding Dory or surprise hits like Secret Life of Pets. If there is an under performance this Summer it will be due to the quality of releases and the WoM they get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I was expecting a soft summer 6 months ago, regardless of how the March movies perform Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What would be a softer Summer? Anyways, last year we had 4 300M+ movies from Jan-Apr, but still the Summer delivered some really good numbers. I am sure SM, GotG2 and DM3 will comfortably cross 300M+. Difference with last year is that we will see a lot of 200M+ potential grossers (PotC, Cars3, Wonder Woman, Mummy, Transformers, Apes, Dunkirk...). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 In fact, this Summer can also benefit from the great quality of the movies that have already opened. Quality succesful films help GA to see more movies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It'll end up a softer summer just because August is such a disaster, but yea, otherwise hit or miss. I think GOTG2 can maybe be as big as Civil War but I don't see any Dory level hits, nor do I see any Secret Life of Pets size hits in the mid tier. But I think Wonder Woman and Spider Man will break out, and DM3 and Apes will hold relatively steady. Pirates, Transformers, and Cars all feel like big drops waiting to happen, but I also think the Mummy, Baywatch, and Dunkirk can make up for it. Man, outside of July, which has alot of potential, this summer is weak in terms of quality if not box office. Yeesh June and May look bad outside GOTG and maybe The Mummy and All Eyez on Me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: It'll end up a softer summer just because August is such a disaster, but yea, otherwise hit or miss. I think GOTG2 can maybe be as big as Civil War but I don't see any Dory level hits, nor do I see any Secret Life of Pets size hits in the mid tier. But I think Wonder Woman and Spider Man will break out, and DM3 and Apes will hold relatively steady. Pirates, Transformers, and Cars all feel like big drops waiting to happen, but I also think the Mummy, Baywatch, and Dunkirk can make up for it. Man, outside of July, which has alot of potential, this summer is weak in terms of quality if not box office. Yeesh June and May look bad outside GOTG and maybe The Mummy and All Eyez on Me. I'm loving this Mummy confidence in you, Clay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
