Weekend Estimates: Kong 61M, Logan 37.8M, Get Out 21M, Shack 10M, Lego Batman 7.8M

[Valonqar]

Kong is overperforming. It's only people who expected Godzilla opening numbers that think this is weak (Deadline). The movie's tracking and actual interest literally soared at the last moment with the last trailer. Before that, we had Kong Under GO club which I fully supported. 

 

Logan's legs are on par with other X Men movies that ended on the better side of the spectrum (50+% drop vs 60+% one). Hopefully it rises today and gets closer to 40M. 

 

GO continues to be a beast, no surprise given great weekday holds.

 

 

[miketheavenger]

Way too early to estimate, but I'm gonna guess Kong is probably heading for $450-500m WW. Even with a $185m Budget, that's pretty good for a King Kong movie in 2017.

Edited March 11, 2017 by miketheavenger

[Boxofficerules]

It's easy to tell if someone is an IMDB troll they'll either tell you to suck a dick, call you a fag or just accuse you of being racist / misogynist for no reason.

[PPZVGOS]

Lots of debate on here over what constitutes a successful/disappointing BO performance. 

 

The way I see the releases so far this year:

 

Split: It's now the year's 2nd sleeper hit domestically, but it has managed to do also perform WW and bring Shyamalan back to the fray. Another pleasant surprise. 

 

Lego Batman: Relative disappointment but minor hit for Warner. It will fall far short than the original Lego Movie, despite the Batman IP. On top of everything, it's not doing well overseas. Still, it will collect a respectable sum. Good, but not impressive. 

 

Get Out: The sleeper hit of the year so far. With a tiny budget it will manage to make over $150M domestic, maybe even reach $200M. That's awesome for a movie with a tiny budget, no real stars and no big marketing push. Remains to be seen if it can gain any traction with international audiences. 

 

John Wick 2: A successful run both domestically and internationally. No break-out, but a solid minor hit. Will allow for a part III. 

 

Fifty Shades 2: I guess it's OK. In fact more than OK if the very good international numbers are factored in. Will also allow for part III.

 

Logan: Solid SH blockbuster, but no Deadpool breakout, despite the great lengths it went to be something different (successfully in my opinion and most critics) and very good RT score. Very solid international numbers as well. It can keep the alternative/R-rated SH sub-genre going, which is a good thing. 

 

Kong: Seems to be significantly weaker than the Peter Jackson's version & Edward's Godzilla. Could be salvaged overseas and maybe even come up with surprisingly good legs a la Tarzan. It will probably be borderline between failure/success. I'm hoping for the latter because I want to see more giant monsters crushing into metropolises and of course a Godzilla/Kong face-off. 

 

BATB: Hope this microwave meal from Disney fails. But it won't, it will succeed, but will not reach Jungle Book heights. 

Edited March 11, 2017 by PPZVGOS

[baumer]

3 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

Lots of debate on here over what constitutes a successful/disappointing BO performance. 

 

The way I see the releases so far this year:

 

Lego Batman: Relative disappointment but minor hit for Warner. It will fall far short than the original Lego Movie, despite the Batman IP. On top of everything, it's not doing well overseas. Still, it will collect a respectable sum. Good, but not impressive. 

 

Get Out: The sleeper hit of the year so far. With a tiny budget it will manage to make over $150M domestic, maybe even reach $200M. That's awesome for a movie with a tiny budget, no real stars and no big marketing push. Remains to be seen if it can gain any traction with international audiences. 

 

John Wick 2: A successful run both domestically and internationally. No break-out, but a solid minor hit. Will allow for a part III. 

 

Fifty Shades 2: I guess it's OK. In fact more than OK if the very good international numbers are factored in. Will also allow for part III.

 

Logan: Solid SH blockbuster, but no Deadpool breakout, despite the great lengths it went to be something different (successfully in my opinion and most critics) and very good RT score. Very solid international numbers as well. It can keep the alternative/R-rated SH sub-genre going, which is a good thing. 

 

Kong: Seems to be significantly weaker than the Peter Jackson's version & Edward's Godzilla. Could be salvaged overseas and maybe even come up with surprisingly good legs a la Tarzan. It will probably be borderline between failure/success. I'm hoping for the latter because I want to see more giant monsters crushing into metropolises and of course a Godzilla/Kong face-off. 

 

BATB: Hope this microwave meal from Disney fails. But it won't, it will succeed, but will not reach Jungle Book heights. 

 

International numbers are always factored in.

[baumer]

Guys....let's try to be nice to each other.  Let's not label someone a troll just because of where they came from.  Let's be hospitable.

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

Guys....let's try to be nice to each other.  Let's not label someone a troll just because of where they came from.  Let's be hospitable.

 

So I can't label @Telemachos as a troll just because he was born under a bridge a thousand years ago?

[ACSlater]

Got a set of new headphones...as much as I make fun of people with Beats headphones, Dr Dre makes good ones...

[Bishop54]

47 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

It isn't.

 

It beat industry tracking by 30-35%.

Tracking is always off. The budget is $190M, it's weak.

[ACSlater]

Just now, ACSlater said:

Got a set of new headphones...as much as I make fun of people with Beats headphones, Dr Dre makes good ones...

 

Hearing upcoming movies trailer's and gahh I am hearing stuff I have never heard before...

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

 

So I can't label @Telemachos as a troll just because he was born under a bridge a thousand years ago?

Or his fascination of little children.

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Lots of debate on here over what constitutes a successful/disappointing BO performance. 

 

The way I see the releases so far this year:

 

Lego Batman: Relative disappointment but minor hit for Warner. It will fall far short than the original Lego Movie, despite the Batman IP. On top of everything, it's not doing well overseas. Still, it will collect a respectable sum. Good, but not impressive. 

 

Get Out: The sleeper hit of the year so far. With a tiny budget it will manage to make over $150M domestic, maybe even reach $200M. That's awesome for a movie with a tiny budget, no real stars and no big marketing push. Remains to be seen if it can gain any traction with international audiences. 

 

John Wick 2: A successful run both domestically and internationally. No break-out, but a solid minor hit. Will allow for a part III. 

 

Fifty Shades 2: I guess it's OK. In fact more than OK if the very good international numbers are factored in. Will also allow for part III.

 

Logan: Solid SH blockbuster, but no Deadpool breakout, despite the great lengths it went to be something different (successfully in my opinion and most critics) and very good RT score. Very solid international numbers as well. It can keep the alternative/R-rated SH sub-genre going, which is a good thing. 

 

Kong: Seems to be significantly weaker than the Peter Jackson's version & Edward's Godzilla. Could be salvaged overseas and maybe even come up with surprisingly good legs a la Tarzan. It will probably be borderline between failure/success. I'm hoping for the latter because I want to see more giant monsters crushing into metropolises and of course a Godzilla/Kong face-off. 

 

BATB: Hope this microwave meal from Disney fails. But it won't, it will succeed, but will not reach Jungle Book heights. 

Split?

[WrathOfHan]

Anyone who still thinks BATB is doing less than TJB is in denial at this point. There is no way it opens under 140M with the way presales are trending, and it's very likey to do 160M+. 

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Split?

 

flop

[Cookson]

4 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

Tracking is always off. The budget is $190M, it's weak.

Let's use the correct budget if we're going to get all serious.

 

Yes, it's going to need every penny domestically. Overall I think it'll be a global success.

[Bishop54]

2 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Let's use the correct budget if we're going to get all serious.

 

Yes, it's going to need every penny domestically. Overall I think it'll be a global success.

$185M...big difference lol. This is a underwhelming opening considering the budget. It's going to die once BatB comes calling too. Tell your peeps at TK to start worrying about Kong vs Godzilla.

[the128boy]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Anyone who still thinks BATB is doing less than TJB is in denial at this point. There is no way it opens under 140M with the way presales are trending, and it's very likey to do 160M+. 

I actually feel like 125 isn't an unreasonable expectation, even with the massive interest. Where do you check presale info? I just check movietickets trending, but its way hard to translate those numbers into anything solid imo.

[PPZVGOS]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Split?

 

I knew I forgot something. 

 

Split: It's now the year's 2nd sleeper hit domestically, but it has managed to do also perform WW and bring Shyamalan back to the fray. Another pleasant surprise. 

[TimmyRiggins]

You can argue that it's "underwhelming", I myself expected it to do 70 M OW, but the truth is, I underestimated the impact of Logan & BATB, simple as that.

 

It's going to do very well OS, hit 500 M WW + and all will be well, Godzilla vs Kong is happening. That it can open that well between two juggernauts is imo pretty telling of its quality. 

 

I mean, there's only so much you can do with Logan pulling high 80's,  and BATB probably hitting 150's with crazy presales, WB should have opened it at another time. 

[PPZVGOS]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Anyone who still thinks BATB is doing less than TJB is in denial at this point. There is no way it opens under 140M with the way presales are trending, and it's very likey to do 160M+. 

 

Really? Nothing personal, but I am just not too eager to see this lame remake make $400M in NA and over a Billion worldwide. Even though I like to see movies doing well, I'm a bit tired of Disney's gimmickry.