Weekend Estimates: Kong 61M, Logan 37.8M, Get Out 21M, Shack 10M, Lego Batman 7.8M

[DMan7]

14 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Everything? 

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Not really.  1B is the floor.

 

The first one made 2.7 billion.

 

That a pretty big range for a sequel.

[MrPink]

15 minutes ago, Wrath said:

So, if we're not talking about Avatar anymore, I'll mention that I just drove an hour to see Great Wall, of all movies, as a favor to my daughter. For no apparent reason, my wife and younger daughter wanted to come too, so it became a family trip.

 

I wouldn't say it was a good movie, and the English dialogue very much had a "this line was translated into English from Chinese" feel. But it was fun, was visually wonderful, and the kids were bummed out because they had a bunch of questions (what exactly is going on in that mountain to the north?) which will never be answered. If the movie's budget had been $50M, there probably would have been a sequel addressing these points, but it was a lot higher than that so there won't.

 

I wouldn't exactly recommend it, but whenever it shows up on Netflix its enough fun to build a good drinking game around watching it.

 

You didn't even realize this but this was a favor to me too

[Eevin]

To give a scope of how massive Avatar was, if the sequel "only" did $1.5b worldwide, that $1.29b gap between the two would be the ninth highest-grossing film of all time. Only two films have ever come anywhere close to its numbers. 

[PDC1987]

Just realized the budget/box office similarity between Kong and Star Trek Beyond, but with Kong having more overseas potential. Both had $185 million budgets, both opened close to $60 million domestically and Kong will likely end around STB domestically.

[Ethan Hunt]

Wrong thread

Edited March 12, 2017 by Ethan Hunt

[robertman2]

Another Star Power debate? Nice

[FantasticBeasts]

Avatar 2 OVER the biggest SW film (with the upcomings in mind) unadjusted.

[Celedhring]

11 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Avatar 2 OVER the biggest SW film (with the upcomings in mind) unadjusted.

 

DOM or WW? DOM I will go and say it won't happen. WW? A whole another story, and it would say a near certainty if the exchange rates weren't so likely to worsen in the next few years.

 

Anyhow, go and make that club.

Edited March 12, 2017 by Celedhring

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, Celedhring said:

 

DOM or WW? DOM I will go and say it won't happen. WW? A whole another story, and it would say a near certainty if the exchange rates weren't set to likely worsen in the next few years.

 

Anyhow, go and make that club.

WW of course.

Americans are mad about Star Wars.

P.S. My comment wasn't that serious although I could see it happening.

[The Futurist]

My nephew is a box office draw.

 

 

[Celedhring]

13 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

WW of course.

Americans are mad about Star Wars.

P.S. My comment wasn't that serious although I could see it happening.

 

I think Avatar 2 will make crazy amounts of money OS. People on here go on about lack of cultural impact - and I'm sure that might be the case in the US -, but I still saw people in blue Na'vi bodypaint during the carnivals a few weeks ago.

 

But the exchange rate scenario will probably be worse than when TFA came out (and certainly much worse than when Avatar was released), and that could be a strong handicap. The Fed is going to be raising rates rather consistently from here on out, and the GOP/Trump seem to be hinting at some hard money policies (like the border adjustment tax).

Edited March 12, 2017 by Celedhring

[somebody85]

Great for Kong if estimates hold! A lot higher then many predicted. Hopefully decent WOM helps it going forward against Beauty & The Remake next weekend.

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

 

I think Avatar 2 will make crazy amounts of money OS. People on here go on about lack of cultural impact - and I'm sure that might be the case in the US -, but I still saw people in blue Na'vi bodypaint during the carnivals a few weeks ago.

 

But the exchange rate scenario will probably be worse than when TFA came out (and certainly much worse than when Avatar was released), and that could be a strong handicap. The Fed is going to be raising rates rather consistently from here on out.

I think Avatar 2 will be huge due to the fact that it will be seen as a comeback to one of the biggest movies of all time. It will be a must see movie.

If the second one isn't perfect though, the next movies will struggle due to the lack of strong fan base.

I also find it really irritating when Americans are so ignorant for the rest of the world. You could just add the "in my country" as everyone else does. I agree that Avatar is still  relevant culturally. Maybe not in the line of SW, LOTR, Harry Potter but certainly not forgotten.

[PenguinHyphy]

3 hours ago, franfar said:

Probably bc they're not in the most appealing/mainstream movies.

 

Assassin's Creed, Black Hat, Huntsman: Winter's War, In The Heart of the Ocean, Haywire and The Counselor are supposed to appeal to who then exactly? 

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

Assassin's Creed, Black Hat, Huntsman: Winter's War, In The Heart of the Ocean, Haywire and The Counselor are supposed to appeal to who then exactly? 

 

@Telemachos

[somebody85]

8 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

Personally I think Kong is going to have much better legs and end up being a much bigger hit than most people here are predicting. I took my mom to go see it Friday and we both loved it, meanwhile my sister and my teenage niece and nephew went to see it yesterday and all loved it. That Saturday increase is a good sign.

That would be really cool. I could only imagine being a kid seeing that helicopter scene in IMAX. They don't care about the characters or dialogue. I always wanted kids of this generation to have a Jurassic Park like experience and that scene is one of the most creative set pieces I've seen in a blockbuster in some time. It replicated areas of the old ride from Universal in it's own way.

[DAJK]

Skull Island pretty much died for the matinee today, I'm at work and it's so slow. RIP my 60M projection after last night, 50-52 is the ceiling after that shit show of a matinee.

[somebody85]

7 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Think about this for a second:

 

1. If Get Out got 21M on its first weekend, it'd be a great success.  It's reaching that on its 3rd weekend.

2. Lights Out opened to 21M in the summer.  Other titles that opened to 21M: Texas Chainsaw 3D, Resident Evil: Retribution, My Bloody Valentine, and underworld '01.

3. Its opening weekend was more than half of Kong's OW.

4. It's the second highest grossing Blumhouse movie, behind only Split.

 

Let all of that shit sink in.

And some people think RT/critics have no power to influence the Box Office.....

[MCKillswitch123]

Jesus Christ, why can I not run away from Avatar 2 around here? 

 

Anyway, Kong opened to around 8M above my expectations (expected a 53M OW), and far above most people's expectations. And its OS numbers will guarantee that it sees profit. WB has nothing to worry about regarding the Kongzilla verse. Clearly, people are still interested in these characters. All these movies need is a strong marketing push, and solid wom, and they'll be good. Godzilla had one of the best marketing campaigns I've ever seen, and it paid off big w/a 90M+ OW. If GVK has a similarly good campaign, it will reach 100M+ OW easily. Too bad that BATB will probably cripple its legs (enormous opening + IMAX), but at least nobody can take this moment in the sun away from the king of apes.

 

Logan, sadly, not reaching the 55% drop I wanted, and for the ones who interpreted it as the best X-Men hold ever, it's actually the best Wolverine hold ever, not X-Men (X2 dropped 53%; it's on par w/Deadpool's 57% hold and I mentioned earlier Deadpool had dropped 55%, was wrong, apolosorry bout that). Still, it's tied at 2nd w/the other R-rated X-Men hit, though, and silver ain't shabby. 57%, given Kong's opening, the typical frontloadedness of the franchise, and the R-rating, is far from poor. Not great, but solid enough.

 

Get Out, once again, the winner of the weekend for me. Fucking Lights Out OPENED to 21M in Summer season, and that was considered a hype worthy success at the time (LO was actually the highlight of poor Star Trek Beyond's OW). And Lights Out was a PG-13 movie, backed by James Wan, and based off of a very popular YouTube short. GO is nothing short of a freak of nature.

Edited March 12, 2017 by MCKillswitch123