Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | The 9th most profitable film of 2023

[Sckathian]

2 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

So far in 2023 we’ve had the highest grossing Creed movie, the highest grossing John Wick movie and the highest grossing video game movie by a country mile. 

And if it was true that less films will make +100M in opening weekend then the MCU is still extremely impacted. In fact its a worse situation than this being a short term blip as it suggests its unrecoverable (its not).

[Jeight]

17 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

So far in 2023 we’ve had the highest grossing Creed movie, the highest grossing John Wick movie and the highest grossing video game movie by a country mile. 

And how many of those opened over 100? Also Mario will still gross less than it would have 5 years ago. 

[Sckathian]

28 minutes ago, Jeight said:

And how many of those opened over 100? Also Mario will still gross less than it would have 5 years ago. 

17 of the top 50 grossing films are all 2018 and onwards. Anyway Mario has benefited from Switch success which released in 2017. Its just not true to suggest it would have opened higher 5 years ago. 

[TerwillikerInst]

The only way this movie doesn't signify a total disaster for the MCU if it opens as low as some people are predicting (and bearing in mind, that is still just hypothetical for now) would be dependant the kind of reviews and audience reception it gets. 

 

If fewer people go to see it on opening weekend but it has great word of mouth and or solid legs then it might be worth it taking the hit for those other MCU movies if it manages to get people back on board. 

 

[PenguinHyphy]

On 4/20/2023 at 10:17 AM, vafrow said:

 

In terms of deviation, even if this hits its current moderate scenarios, I don't think the average person is expecting this to collapse. People who follow the film industry, but not box office closely, likely see Antman as an anomaly, and expect Guardians to be a return to form.

 

I was looking at some numbers yesterday, and, during the first three phases of Marvel, there was only two instances of a direct sequel to a film doing worse than its predecessor domestically; Iron Man 2 and Avengers Age of Ultron. 

 

Then, phase 4 continued the trend with No Way Home, Doctor Strange and Thor all continued that pattern. All three saw jumps, even as reviews for some were mixed.

 

Then, Wakanda Forever and Antman are two in a row of not doing so. Guardians will be three unless something changes. Marvels likely is four. If you count Captain America 4 as a sequel to Civil War, then, high risk of five.

 

I know people are sick of the dialogue around whether Marvel is dead, but, it's only going to get louder if things play out as forecasted.

 

I listen to the Filmcast podcast, and this week they did their summer movie wager, where the hosts and guests all predict the top 10 grossing films this summer. Each one predicted Guardians as the top film. They're all aware of Antman, but, all feel confident that something like Guardians is likely safe.

 

I think the performance is going to catch people off guard who are conditioned to think that Marvel films only get bigger with each entry.

 

Or, they are not expecting anything to be a huge +400,000,000 grosser, which seems very possible given that roster 

Edited April 21, 2023 by PenguinHyphy

[vafrow]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

 

Or, they are not expecting anything to be a huge +400,000,000 grosser, which seems very possible given that roster. 

 

They actually discussed that, and said that grabbing the top spot pretty much requires the $400M+ range, which was the rationale for not picking Mission Impossible in the top 3, even though they expect a Top Gun boost. With the franchise only hitting low $200M range, they felt it didn't have enough to catch the top tier hits which they had as GOTG3, Indy and The Little Mermaid.

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, Jeight said:

Lol, the doom and gloom is hilarious. Marvel is t gonba reach phase 3 consistency? How about phase 2 or phase 1. Marvel has been delivering for 15 years and they only have 2-3 movies with bad reviews and box office.

 

Based purely on track record your comment makes no sense. The overall trend of movies is going down and audience preferences have changed. That affects the genre as well but acting like mcu movies are in danger of continuously flopping is ridiculous. Only ant man flopped, be real. Underperforming is the trend.

The move to streming by audiences has had a big impact on the whole industry. Anybody denying that is living in another reality.

It might be the biggest permanent loss to theater revenues since the coming of Televsion in the last 40's.

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by dudalb

[Saul Goodman]

 

[John Marston]

27 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

 

 

going back to Hooked on a Feeling for the previews? Oh man they  see low tracking and they are scared

[thajdikt]

 

 

 

This is probably MCU first F-bomb? Don´t know if it was in this thread but remember someone talked about how the movie had gotten a stronger description of the language use by the rating board for this movie. Surely they are not actual using that bleep sound in the movie?

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

I smell a disaster.

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

 

 

 

This is probably MCU first F-bomb? Don´t know if it was in this thread but remember someone talked about how the movie had gotten a stronger description of the language use by the rating board for this movie. Surely they are not actual using that bleep sound in the movie?

 

I'm not sure if it's for everyone, but I love the visuals of the Guardians in real, suburban type settings.

 

I'm guessing it's not a huge chunk of the movie, but it seems fun. I also like that Groot seems like he's a guy in a suit. Apparently, for the Christmas episode, Gunn clarified it's still CGI, but it looks like it, and it never fails to make me laugh for some reason.

 

I've been very pessimistic on the potential for success of this film at the box office, but I do think it's going to be a lot of fun.

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Jeight said:

And how many of those opened over 100? Also Mario will still gross less than it would have 5 years ago. 

Not really Mario wise. It’s doing far better than I would’ve predicted pre-pandemic. And unlike Quantumania, all three of them will be profitable and are liked by audiences.

 

Also though admission is a problem, partially due to inflation 2022 has had more 100m+ openers than 2018/2019 despite having no 200m+ openers. Things are getting back to normal, and while there’s a chunk lost, 100m+ OW are still very common.

Edited April 21, 2023 by YM!

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

 

 

 

This is probably MCU first F-bomb? Don´t know if it was in this thread but remember someone talked about how the movie had gotten a stronger description of the language use by the rating board for this movie. Surely they are not actual using that bleep sound in the movie?

Mantis is good. This was a good one for sure. I am sure this wont disappoint with reviews. 

[YM!]

Even if Guardians underperforms, I don’t think it’s a doom-all for the MCU. By no means is it a good thing but if quality is constant this year like Guardians, Secret Invasion, Loki and The Marvels are all hits with the GA, I think they’ll be able to rebound come New World Order/Thunderbolts. It seems likely Marvel is probably course correcting as they’re working on decreasing output yearly or at least putting the actions in place for a while. That said, Phase 1-2 numbers are likely going to be the norm for most MCU films going forward with the exception of Deadpool, Spider-Man and the Avengers, which shouldn’t be a problem so long as budgets are more in 150m range than the 200m+ the majority have been but that can be somewhat due to Covid. That said, if these next slew of projects have Phase 4/Quantumania reception, then I would panic as the GA are very fickle even if a franchise is consistent with a huge library, it doesn’t take much to ruin brand image.

 

Guardians: 125/315/700

The Marvels: 105/260/625

New World Order: 90/235/600

Thunderbolts: 65/190/450

Blade: 80/210/440

Deadpool: 145/370/800

F4: 100/275/650

Avengers: Kang Dynasty: 185/420/1b

 

 

 

[TheDude391]

36 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

 

 

 

This is probably MCU first F-bomb? Don´t know if it was in this thread but remember someone talked about how the movie had gotten a stronger description of the language use by the rating board for this movie. Surely they are not actual using that bleep sound in the movie?

Yeah, I'd be shocked if it's bleeped in theatres. It is strange how long it's taken them. The well timed F bomb is one of the fun parts of a PG13 blockbuster, X-Men First Class being the best for that.

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, TheDude391 said:

Yeah, I'd be shocked if it's bleeped in theatres. It is strange how long it's taken them. The well timed F bomb is one of the fun parts of a PG13 blockbuster, X-Men First Class being the best for that.

they had a real layup in guardians 2 with this moment

 

always kinda bothered me, doesn't really make sense for rocket to censor himself in the moment. i always guessed it was a disney thing, why they never used their one fuck, i dunno. maybe they're softening on it because they're going to make a deadpool movie anyway.

[Sckathian]

I bet its freakin in the cinema.

[ChipDerby]

16 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

they had a real layup in guardians 2 with this moment

 

always kinda bothered me, doesn't really make sense for rocket to censor himself in the moment. i always guessed it was a disney thing, why they never used their one fuck, i dunno. maybe they're softening on it because they're going to make a deadpool movie anyway.

 

It does make sense, because that's a baby on his shoulder

[John Marston]

30 minutes ago, YM! said:

Even if Guardians underperforms, I don’t think it’s a doom-all for the MCU. By no means is it a good thing but if quality is constant this year like Guardians, Secret Invasion, Loki and The Marvels are all hits with the GA, I think they’ll be able to rebound come New World Order/Thunderbolts. It seems likely Marvel is probably course correcting as they’re working on decreasing output yearly or at least putting the actions in place for a while. That said, Phase 1-2 numbers are likely going to be the norm for most MCU films going forward with the exception of Deadpool, Spider-Man and the Avengers, which shouldn’t be a problem so long as budgets are more in 150m range than the 200m+ the majority have been but that can be somewhat due to Covid. That said, if these next slew of projects have Phase 4/Quantumania reception, then I would panic as the GA are very fickle even if a franchise is consistent with a huge library, it doesn’t take much to ruin brand image.

 

Guardians: 125/315/700

The Marvels: 105/260/625

New World Order: 90/235/600

Thunderbolts: 65/190/450

Blade: 80/210/440

Deadpool: 145/370/800

F4: 100/275/650

Avengers: Kang Dynasty: 185/420/1b

 

 

 

 

Nothing will probably change unless they change up their writing team.