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kayumanggi

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My favorite MCU film and one of the best received. I think it should, at least, double what it did in China (600m Yuan/$95m). It should definitely go over $600m. Maybe, as @Claudio says, 650. And of course, great chances of reaching the billion WW.

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21 hours ago, peludo said:

My favorite MCU film and one of the best received. I think it should, at least, double what it did in China (600m Yuan/$95m). It should definitely go over $600m. Maybe, as @Claudio says, 650. And of course, great chances of reaching the billion WW.

 

I agree with $650m OS, that would be a similar increase as another beloved blockbuster (HTTYD 2). But I think you are heavily overpredicting China. I can't understand why despite all the overpredicted movies in China this year alone (TFA, KFP3, BvS & CW) you are still setting up yourself for disappointment. Why would GotG do $190m in China when even CW isn't assured to do that much (or might just do slightly more)? China's BO expansion is hitting a ceiling and I think people are not adapting to that which is why movies will probably be overpredicted there for the years to come I guess.

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1 hour ago, Agafin said:

 

I agree with $650m OS, that would be a similar increase as another beloved blockbuster (HTTYD 2). But I think you are heavily overpredicting China. I can't understand why despite all the overpredicted movies in China this year alone (TFA, KFP3, BvS & CW) you are still setting up yourself for disappointment. Why would GotG do $190m in China when even CW isn't assured to do that much (or might just do slightly more)? China's BO expansion is hitting a ceiling and I think people are not adapting to that which is why movies will probably be overpredicted there for the years to come I guess.

Because GOTG was very well liked there. It had great legs, better than most of MCU films. And among the films you mention, excepting KFP3, what has been obviously a disappointment, I do not think that others have done something different that the common sense would had said. I had TFA making 800s before release and it did 825 (you can find it in the Chinese thread. I said it several times). And people who thought BvS could rivalize with MCU was not objective, considering that the same year MOS did not reach 400m Yuan when IM3 was making over 750. An let's add that the disappointment of BvS has not been in China, but everywhere. It is not just a Chinese slow down factor.

 

I am perfectly conscious that China is not growing as 1 or 2 years ago, but even with that factor and taking the 1.26b Yuan projection for CW made by @No Prisoners, Civil War still will make a 71% more than what Winter Soldier did just 2 years ago (35% more for each year). I do not see any real reason why GotGs can not do the same and add, let's say, a 20% because of one year more inflation/expansion, and make that GotG can reach 1.1b. Let's remember that both Winter Soldier (735m) and GotG (596m) came the same year, so GotG2 will have one year more to grow than CA3 and close the gap between the previous films.

 

Of course, I can be wrong, but I do not think it is a bad prediction. A bad prediction and disappointment was to say that first Hobbit would make around 450 million in US and close to 1 billion OS. That was a huge disappointment for me. But if GotG2 makes 1.1b Yuan and I say 1.2b it will be just a not very accurate prediction but, at least, a decent one.

Edited by peludo
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21 hours ago, peludo said:
Spoiler

Because GOTG was very well liked there. It had great legs, better than most of MCU films. And among the films you mention, excepting KFP3, what has been obviously a disappointment, I do not think that others have done something different that the common sense would had said. I had TFA making 800s before release and it did 825 (you can find it in the Chinese thread. I said it several times). And people who thought BvS could rivalize with MCU was not objective, considering that the same year MOS did not reach 400m Yuan when IM3 was making over 750. An let's add that the disappointment of BvS has not been in China, but everywhere. It is not just a Chinese slow down factor.

 

 

Fair enough. I think you'll be disappointed but your points make sense nonetheless.

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13 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

Fair enough. I think you'll be disappointed but your points make sense nonetheless.

I was disappointed with first Hobbit since Middle Earth is my favorite saga, but no more. Since that moment, I learnt to not be dissapointed with more or less box office for my favorite films. It is absurd. I learnt to separate tastes and I try to be objective with numbers.

 

In this case, it is a mere prediction taking into account several factors like how well liked was GotG and considering that although China is slowing down, it is not stopping from growing. You think it will make less and I think it will make more. That is all.

Edited by peludo
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Couldn't find a thread for this here so I decided to do one myself.

 

Release info from IMDB:

 

Australia - 25 April 2017

Italy - 25 April 2017

Belgium - 26 April 2017

Finland - 26 April 2017

France - 26 April 2017

Indonesia - 26 April 2017

Norway - 26 April 2017

Philippines - 26 April 2017

Sweden - 26 April 2017

Argentina - 27 April 2017

Chile - 27 April 2017

Colombia - 27 April 2017

Germany - 27 April 2017

Denmark - 27 April 2017

Hong Kong - 27 April 2017

Cambodia - 27 April 2017

Netherlands - 27 April 2017

Portugal - 27 April 2017

Singapore - 27 April 2017

Taiwan - 27 April 2017

Estonia - 28 April 2017

Spain - 28 April 2017

UK - 28 April 2017

Lithuania - 28 April 2017

Turkey - 28 April 2017

South Korea - 3 May 2017

United Arab Emirates - 4 May 2017

Brazil - 4 May 2017

Czech Republic - 4 May 2017

Georgia - 4 May 2017

Greece - 4 May 2017

Hungary - 4 May 2017

Israel - 4 May 2017

Kuwait - 4 May 2017

Kazakhstan - 4 May 2017

Russia - 4 May 2017

Ukraine - 4 May 2017

Bangladesh - 5 May 2017

Bulgaria - 5 May 2017

China - 5 May 2017

India - 5 May 2017

Poland - 5 May 2017

Romania - 5 May 2017

Japan - 12 May 2017

 

Any predictions? I see around a 500-550M OS total.

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Sessions start at 6:30pm tonight, April 24, in Australia/New Zealand. In just over 8 hours in New Zealand. 

 

The full opening is tomorrow on the ANZAC Day public holiday in Australia and New Zealand. 

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I am quite sure @kayumanggi would have created a thread for this like eons ago. I remember predicting for this.

 

Based on early presales data, it looks like mid level OS blockbuster rather than uber blockbuster territory. I would say 500-550m OS and 350m domestic for 850-900m WW.

 

there you go from archives.

 

 

@grim22 can you lock/merge threads.

Edited by keysersoze123
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