KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON | 10.20.2023 | Paramount | final gross: $68,026,901

[emoviefan]

9 hours ago, Jsmitty said:

Do we have any idea regarding the theatrical exclusivity window before shifting to Apple TV? 60 days+?

Probably a wait and see thing. Depends on how it does at the box office and how it's legs are.

[tonytr87]

14 hours ago, TheDude391 said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-the-marvels/

 

Estimates rose 11% from last time.

 

OW: $33-42

DOM: $110-156

 

That Leo power. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[titanic2187]

On 10/14/2023 at 5:31 AM, tonytr87 said:

 

That Leo power. 

That projection is a range I dare not to believe. Without any premiere-like events, talk-show interview, review revelation, social media interaction in the last week before release, there certainly nothing much studio can do hype up the movie. The movie is now entirely depend on goodwill from Leo+Marty, as well as great review; Something we have seen this package isn't working for MI7, and that one was with Tom Cruise in the center of promotion. 

 

  

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

That projection is a range I dare not to believe. Without any premiere-like events, talk-show interview, review revelation, social media interaction in the last week before release, there certainly nothing much studio can do hype up the movie. The movie is now entirely depend on goodwill from Leo+Marty, as well as great review; Something we have seen this package isn't working for MI7, and that one was with Tom Cruise in the center of promotion. 

 

  

I am not seeing that high either. Thinking in 25-30m range for now. I agree with the reasons stated. It would have definitely helped had Leo was up and around at this point promoting the movie big time. This is going to impact everything. Next up are Marvels and Hunger Games. Only Freddys is ok I think. 

[Bob Train]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

That projection is a range I dare not to believe. Without any premiere-like events, talk-show interview, review revelation, social media interaction in the last week before release, there certainly nothing much studio can do hype up the movie. The movie is now entirely depend on goodwill from Leo+Marty, as well as great review; Something we have seen this package isn't working for MI7, and that one was with Tom Cruise in the center of promotion. 

 

  

Leo's last movies average $150m DOM. The pinpoint of the BOP range is $133m, which is about 90% of $150m.

 

So they are accounting for the SAG-AFTRA strike. We also saw Equalizer 3 do about 90% of Equalizer 2.

 

That was also a star-dependent flick. So -10% is probably the reduction in place for accounting the SAG-AFTRA strike.

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not seeing that high either. Thinking in 25-30m range for now. I agree with the reasons stated. It would have definitely helped had Leo was up and around at this point promoting the movie big time. This is going to impact everything. Next up are Marvels and Hunger Games. Only Freddys is ok I think. 

 

That's my range, too...even with the TMobile Atom deal.  I don't think this one gets much benefit from that deal...

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not seeing that high either. Thinking in 25-30m range for now. I agree with the reasons stated. It would have definitely helped had Leo was up and around at this point promoting the movie big time. This is going to impact everything. Next up are Marvels and Hunger Games. Only Freddys is ok I think. 

This is what so maddening. The studios/streamers cutting their nose off to spite their face. Go back to the table and make a dam deal. That being said 25-30 million opening for 206 minute long Hard R Rated movie that targets a audience that is not exactly storming the theaters any more is no disaster. The question will  be WOM and legs along with that budget. 

[mikeymichael]

For some reason, I don't see this hitting 100m total domestic. Neither the runtime nor subject matter are very pleasant. Plus the lack of promotion.

 

Can see this finishing somewhere in the 75-90 range. If this opens up in the low 20s, I'll know I was onto something... 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

27 minutes ago, mikeymichael said:

Neither the runtime nor subject matter are very pleasant.

It's not going to be the runtime that hurts this film. It's going to be the subject matter. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Also, I think the, for lack of a better term, current state of the world is going to hurt this film.

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

1 hour ago, mikeymichael said:

For some reason, I don't see this hitting 100m total domestic. Neither the runtime nor subject matter are very pleasant. Plus the lack of promotion.

 

Can see this finishing somewhere in the 75-90 range. If this opens up in the low 20s, I'll know I was onto something... 

you can’t get away from the advertising for this movie. Tons of promotion. It is tough subject matter and that could be an issue. 

[filmlover]

Sales for this are on the soft side outside of PLF showtimes near me. I'm thinking it's more likely to end in the mid-$20M than the $40M+ hopes from earlier, which wouldn't be an awful start all things considered.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

dont underestimate Leo

[WittyUsername]

Oppenheimer’s subject matter wasn’t exactly warm and fuzzy either. 

[Bob Train]

21 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Oppenheimer’s subject matter wasn’t exactly warm and fuzzy either. 

The moment it became clear Oppenheimer would *not* make less than pandemic-released Tenet was the moment it transformed in the eyes of many people from a 3 hour long, R-Rated talky B&W drama to a crowd-pleasing thriller movie. 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Sales for this are on the soft side outside of PLF showtimes near me. I'm thinking it's more likely to end in the mid-$20M than the $40M+ hopes from earlier, which wouldn't be an awful start all things considered.

But isn’t it a good sign people are springing for the better more expensive screens? Not saying 25 isn’t gonna happen (it could and that’s not really bad at all) but I feel like over 30 would be a huge win. Fingers crossed.

 

Wolf of Wall Street was so much fun so it having huge legs isn’t a shock. 

[keysersoze123]

I think Flower Moon is not going to play well every where but its doing well in big markets Imax/PLF and some red belt states as well. @Hilts update for OK was phenomenal. Its going to have a respectable OW and have a great run for sure. I want 150m domestic but its going to do > 100m domestic and do good numbers in OS markets as well(300m+WW). That is great for subject matter. 

[filmlover]

31 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

But isn’t it a good sign people are springing for the better more expensive screens? Not saying 25 isn’t gonna happen (it could and that’s not really bad at all) but I feel like over 30 would be a huge win. Fingers crossed.

 

Wolf of Wall Street was so much fun so it having huge legs isn’t a shock. 

That pretty much applies to every movie in 2023 lol. My concern is that the non-PLF shows aren't doing that great so far (a possible indication that runtime is causing some hesitancy? Maybe, but also could make up for that via staying power).

 

I'd consider this making $100M+ a win given the "Apple giving their streaming service legitimacy" of it all. If you lined up all six of the Leo/Marty collaborations side by side (Gangs of New York adjusts to $100M+ with more than 20 years of inflation) and asked which one had the least commercially appealing concept of them all I would easily point to this one.

[emoviefan]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Flower Moon is not going to play well every where but its doing well in big markets Imax/PLF and some red belt states as well. @Hilts update for OK was phenomenal. Its going to have a respectable OW and have a great run for sure. I want 150m domestic but its going to do > 100m domestic and do good numbers in OS markets as well(300m+WW). That is great for subject matter. 

Would be good all things considered.