AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[ZeeSoh]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Already at 713M oversea.

 

162.6 intl weekend after a very similar -56/57% drop.

It need to do 1.45 time it's weekend to reach that with no more market to opening to help. Should be doable right ?

 

Even with consecutive 50% drops it will do 160 over the weekends. 

 

Last week (weekdays) it did about 180m. Removing about 40m from Mon-Tue due to holiday we get 140. 50% consecutive drops for weekdays gives us 140. 

 

So thats 160+140=300. Adding that to 713 gives us 1.013b OS. 

 

And my 50% is not optimistic either seeing that it fell about that much in its 2nd weekend itself and movies generally tend to stabilize. Even 55% drops I think gets it to 950. 

 

7 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Not convinced about this doing 950 million os without China .

 

Can you tell me why or show me the math? What kinda drops are you expecting? 

 

It would need to drop 60% every week to miss 650 and those kinda drops are just way too pessimistic. 

[Fake]

Projecting OS-China (very conservative)

 

Weekdays: 51-52M

Weekend: 75M (840M total)

 

Weekdays: 25M

Weekend: 30M (895M)

 

Weekdays: 10M

Weekend: 15M (920M)

 

And another 20-25M after that. Hard to see how it misses 940M at this point.

 

 

[Fake]

24 minutes ago, peludo said:

@POTUS is projecting 240 OW / 460 total in China...

Hmm... but that is based on presales, that too 4 days out.... It may go substantially higher/lower than that.

 

I am just hoping for 425M+. That will guarantee $2B WW.

 

 

[Thrylos 7]

11 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Even with consecutive 50% drops it will do 160 over the weekends. 

 

Last week (weekdays) it did about 180m. Removing about 40m from Mon-Tue due to holiday we get 140. 50% consecutive drops for weekdays gives us 140. 

 

So thats 160+140=300. Adding that to 713 gives us 1.013b OS. 

 

And my 50% is not optimistic either seeing that it fell about that much in its 2nd weekend itself and movies generally tend to stabilize. Even 55% drops I think gets it to 950. 

 

 

Can you tell me why or show me the math? What kinda drops are you expecting? 

 

It would need to drop 60% every week to miss 650 and those kinda drops are just way too pessimistic. 

I can’t show you the math, I am clueless when it comes to projecting box office scientifically. All I know is that fan driven movies drop fast overseas, even if they open big. Overseas works differently compared to the u.s , unless we are talking about something like titanic. People are talking about burnt demand in the u.s, how about overseas with the may 1st holiday ? Anyway the weekend number is good but still 950 million seems too much. We will know for sure after next weekend which, in general, will be super extra crucial about this film’s worldwide box office, with China opening and the third weekend everywhere else.

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Fake said:

Hmm... but that is based on presales, that too 4 days out.... It may go substantially higher/lower than that.

 

I am just hoping for 425M+. That will guarantee $2B WW.

 

 

He has been pessimistic on his projections of the presales, but the patterns to them are quite reliable in China. We can expect 15-20% increases daily until 30% penultimate day and 50% last day. These are minimums that the China market just seems to always follow. Even FF8 which was just as hyped and presale-heavy did better than those increases.

 

I know you don't want to be too hopeful, because you won't want disappointment, but at this point $180m OW and $300m is like 99% certain, unless a major change happens in the market which is unlikely. 

 

The only plausibility is that it goes substantially higher, which is if it becomes breakout worthy in China.

 

95% confidence range is likely $220-250m OW and $330-400m total

[fabiopazzo2]

More details:

 

The Top 5 markets are: Korea($69.1M), the UK ($67.2M), Mexico($48.7M), Brazil ($44.3M) and India ($35.7M). In the UK, Monday is a holiday while France has two holidays this week and Korea is also off on Monday.

Russia was the new play this weekend with a record opening weekend of $17.6M. That tops the lifetime of Cap 3.

In Asia-Pacific, the regional drop was 55% with especially strong holds in Japan (-31%), Korea (-43%), Hong Kong (-45%), Singapore (-49%), Taiwan (-49%) and Australia (-53%). The estimated regional box office is over $300M to make Infinity War the fastest Disney title to the threshold.

In Latin America, there was a 50% drop with great staying power in Brazil (-34%), Chile (-37%), Uruguay (-39%), Argentina (-42%), Venezuela (-43%) and Colombia (-45%). Regionally, this group of heroes are now the No. 6 movie of all time.

And in Europe, the drop was 57%. The best holds were in Austria (-34%), Israel (-38%), Netherlands (-43%), Switzerland (-48%), Finland (-49%), Poland (-52%), South Africa (-54%) and Italy (-56%). The 19th entry in the MCU is now the 2nd highest-grossing title of the bunch in the region, behind only The Avengers.

IMAX numbers continue to stagger as well with a global tally of $80.2M to date. The film was shot entirely on IMAX cameras and added $10.6M internationally to bring the total to $40M this session. In Russia, the opening weekend was a record $2.2M, besting Thor: Ragnarok.

In 4DX, AIW is on track to pass $13.5M worldwide today. It was released in 4DX across 324 screens in 58 countries, and will continue to break records and when it opens May 11 on an additional 191 4DX screens in China.

[Stewart]

14 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

And in Europe, the drop was 57%. The best holds were in Austria (-34%), Israel (-38%), Netherlands (-43%), Switzerland (-48%), Finland (-49%), Poland (-52%), South Africa (-54%) and Italy (-56%).

Hmmmmmmm......

 

Since when was South Africa in... Europe? 

 

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

AND that's a somewhat pessimistic scenario 

realistically conservative

[HouseOfTheSun]

Even projecting conservatively everywhere, this is passing TFA, so I’m very happy. 

[fabiopazzo2]

.

Edited May 6, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Juby]

1 hour ago, Fake said:

Giving it a decent 2.5x multiplier from this weekend, it should finish 950-960M OS-China. DOM is looking at 650M. So China needs to do 400M for IW to hit $2B WW.

DOM is looking at $675-725 mln after this weekend. $650 mln is a pretty pessimistic scenario.

 

I hope IW will beat TFA WW numbers.

[FlashMaster659]

So what's the overall OS total range looking like?

[fmpro]

19 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

So what's the overall OS total range looking like?

1,325-1,350 incl China IMO

[The Mad Titan]

25 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

So what's the overall OS total range looking like?

Minus China, $900m - $1b

With China, $1.25b - $1.6b
 

[Rthmessiah]

4 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Hmmmmmmm......

 

Since when was South Africa in... Europe? 

 

there are 4 mega groupings

1-Domestic- US & US territories/ Canada

2-Asia Pacific

3-Europe, Middle East, Africa

4-Latin Am

Edited May 7, 2018 by Rthanos

[Rthmessiah]

8 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I was really confused about they calculate the weekend gross.

Captain America opened to 200m OS ,including wednesday +thursday, and made $95m 3 days OS weekend in its 2nd outing(I removed the new opening from its 2nd weekend gross, i.e 217m-china, italy, russia and etc and get 95m)

 

From that figure....Cap america 3 dropped 53% from 2nd weekend(fri-sun) from 5 days opening(Wed-Sun). 

 

On the other hand, IW had 383m 5 days opening vs 2nd weekend(3 days)- 145m(-Russia).Apply the CW's calculation, the drop is 62%

 

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, bladels said:

Read it wrong the first time.

Which countries count Thursday in to wk?

Roughly Territory standard opening day for films  51 open Thursday, 35 open Fridays

 

 

Below was on page 49, however better explanation is one under this from Justice League intl thread

On 5/4/2018 at 2:29 PM, Rthanos said:

FYI

 

that 2nd WE total isn't just Fri-Sun its Wed, Thu of the countries that normally open films on a Wed-Thu (majority normal opening is Thu), So for example because Japan normal opening day is Sat only Sat-Sun are in that figure WE figure Friday isn't included.

 

International works on the 1st weekend is everything from previews+films opening date in a country(regardless of normal opening day or not) through Sunday. Now even though the OWe includes previews and non-standard opening day a lot of countries doesn't include those figures as part of their local Owe (for example UK does, Australia doesn't) and records are set based on how each country does it .

From 2nd week onwards the weekend total is the total of all days by country from what is their standard opening day through Sunday (so a mix of 5,4,3,2 day figures). In International there is no concept of a week figure (except of cause at the individual country/market level).China is an exception to the rule.

 

 

 

----From Justice League  Intl Post

International BO is not Fri-Sun weekend and there's no week figure, it works like this

 

-The weekend is the total of all the normal weekend totals of all the individual territories/markets , how they officially report numbers. A weekend figure is classed as the standard day a film would normally open through to  Sunday (China is an exception), so it can be a 5 days  (ie France) ,4 days (ie Australia) ,3days  (ie UK),2 days  (ie Japan).

For example in France they have no proper daily totals because a lot of theatres only report a total weekend/week figure, so the daily figures reported never add up to the weekend/week total.

 

-the 1st weekend of any territory/market also includes any previews (regardless of if the individual market reports preview figures separately and not part of their actual opening weekend figure)

 

-Exchange rates $lc to $us are based on studios/producers inter-company rates. The individual markets don't give a rats what the amount is in $us only when it comes for them to transfer any collected rental income to overseas (and a lot of the time its not going direct to US often tax haven countries)

-any records set  day,weekend etc come from the territories/markets in  $lc and based on their official Opening day, weekend, week, lifetime data.

 

Thursday is the most common opening day for example JL 6 markets start a week on Wed, 24  start Friday, at least 36 Thursday starts, 1 saturday (Japan which also had previews)

 

so when you see a figure for  say Wed or Thu part of those figures form the weekend total (the total of the markets that normally start on Wed, Thu). That's often why people will say but hang on Thursday figure was X how can the weekend and/or cume be Y

[NCsoft]

5 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Even projecting conservatively everywhere, this is passing TFA, so I’m very happy. 

I don't think that's entirely true

Projecting conservatively for every market might bring this to 1.95B to 2B, its chances of passing 2B is more likely  than not (for instance, 650 Dom, 400 China and 950 OS-China gives this 2B)

TFA I'd put it at 50/50 right now.

Edited May 7, 2018 by NCsoft

[cookieleeann]

These numbers OS

[aabattery]

 

51% drop in Aus, 45.57M total.

 

 

-57.9% drop in NZ, 7.62M total. Already passed T:R and BP to become the second highest grossing MCU movie here. Should be able to get over 10.5m when all is said and done to become the ninth highest grossing film of all-time here. I don't think it has enough juice to get past the first Hobbit for eighth.

 

Won't beat Wilderpeople either

[Joyous Legion]

13 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

51% drop in Aus, 45.57M total.

 

 

-57.9% drop in NZ, 7.62M total. Already passed T:R and BP to become the second highest grossing MCU movie here. Should be able to get over 10.5m when all is said and done to become the ninth highest grossing film of all-time here. I don't think it has enough juice to get past the first Hobbit for eighth.

 

Won't beat Wilderpeople either

Don’t you need 10.86 to beat Shrek2 for 9th? 10th does look locked.