Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[YM!]

GV2 on its fifth weekend deals with both Wonder Woman and Captain Underpants, both could do over $50M OW (WW > $100M OW). 

TWS on its fifth weekend dealt with Amazing Spider-Man 2 which did $90M OW.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

Ragnarok looks like a mini re-boot to be honest.

 

It does, by being on a different world and not showing many characters from the previous 2, it does make it look like you can watch it without having seen thor 1-2/avengers/ultron, I never seen Thor 1 and it does feel like I don't need to see it before. It does feel a bit like Gunn with Guardians, it could be a Taika giant budget comedy.

 

If it is excellent it has break out potential a la Guardian 1, 750-800m WW imo.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Barnack

[BoilingHotCoffee]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Thor is Thor.

 

How dare you question the Box Office potential of rth's biopic? 

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

If we look at worse case scenarios for both:

($225M for TR, $325M for JL), JL is still over Rangarok by $100M.

 

Those are some optimistic worst case scenarios.

 

TR could easily go under 200m if hype dies down and the movie turns out to be another Dark World (worst case).

 

JL could go as low as the mid 200m if it's BvS or SS quality and WW ends up being poorly received.

 

Best case for Thor is maybe 300m, and that's if JL underperforms and Ragnorak is really received well (and even then it's a big if).  

 

Best case for JL is maybe mid-300m range.  Even if WW does really well and is well received, there's lots of competition to dampen its hype and it's still coming off of a not liked BvS.  400m+ predicts for JL are loony, id only give it a 50% shot to hit 300m as of now.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It does, by being on a different world and not showing many characters from the previous 2, it does make it look like you can watch it without having seen thor 1-2/avengers/ultron, I never seen Thor 1 and it does feel like I don't need to see it before. It does feel a bit like Gunn with Guardians, it could be a Taika giant budget comedy.

 

Taika is what's making me optimistic about Thor, quality wise at least.  We still aren't sure how GA will react to his brand of comedy, and we don't know how much creative control he really had on Ragnarok (though the trailer does show the life that his past films had).

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Those are some optimistic worst case scenarios.

 

TR could easily go under 200m if hype dies down and the movie turns out to be another Dark World (worst case).

 

JL could go as low as the mid 200m if it's BvS or SS quality and WW ends up being poorly received.

 

Best case for Thor is maybe 300m, and that's if JL underperforms and Ragnorak is really received well (and even then it's a big if).  

 

Best case for JL is maybe mid-300m range.  Even if WW does really well and is well received, there's lots of competition to dampen its hype and it's still coming off of a not liked BvS.  400m+ predicts for JL are loony, id only give it a 50% shot to hit 300m as of now.

With the hype Thor has so far plus the addition of Hulk and Doctor Strange in the mix, Thor can't miss $200M but it could have a slightly higher OW ($95M) but with legs around 2.36x finishing at $225M (or possibly legs around 2.2x and do $210M. JL won't miss $300M either even with an overperformance for Rangarok and The Star, given the DCEU's film average of $135M/$300M domestic, even if it's BVS bad. Best case for Thor is about $350M, if YT views/social media = big OW , JL could do $400M but it needs an OW over $165M which again is possible but it'll barely reach it. The only way I could see a sub $150M OW is if it's BVS bad and both Thor and The Star breakout.

Edited May 16, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

I know I been called crazy with my predictions for The Star but if it looks good and is good to the GA, I can see it over Coco.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

With the hype Thor has so far plus the addition of Hulk and Doctor Strange in the mix, Thor can't miss $200M but it could have a slightly higher OW ($95M) but with legs around 2.36x finishing at $225M (or possibly legs around 2.2x and do $210M. JL won't miss $300M either even with an overperformance for Rangarok and The Star, given the DCEU's film average of $135M/$300M domestic, even if it's BVS bad. Best case for Thor is about $350M, if YT views/social media = big OW , JL could do $400M but it needs an OW over $165M which again is possible but it'll barely reach it. 

 

I still think you're overestimating both of these movies.  JL isn't in a spot that necessarily is prone for good legs.  Look at Breaking Dawn, Im expecting JL to perform like those movies.  

 

300m could easily happen, but again it's definitely not a guarantee.  There are plenty of things that could kill it.  Also, if it goes the plotline route that I think it's going, audiences really won't be happy with it.  Especially family audiences.

[aabattery]

10 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Taika is what's making me optimistic about Thor, quality wise at least.  We still aren't sure how GA will react to his brand of comedy, and we don't know how much creative control he really had on Ragnarok (though the trailer does show the life that his past films had).

 

I don't think his humor is that foreign to the GA. New Zealanders and Americans generally seem to like the same kind of stuff, so I think it should travel fairly well. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

I still think you're overestimating both of these movies.  JL isn't in a spot that necessarily is prone for good legs.  Look at Breaking Dawn, Im expecting JL to perform like those movies.  

 

300m could easily happen, but again it's definitely not a guarantee.  There are plenty of things that could kill it.  Also, if it goes the plotline route that I think it's going, audiences really won't be happy with it.  Especially family audiences.

I'm not expecting good legs for JL, if it does $400M domestic, it'd be like $165M-$170M OW with a finish about at $400M. Coco it can survive with second weekend but SW8, Jumanji, and Ferdinand will destroy its late legs.

[HenryjRhetorics]

I will say Thor will get close to 300 with an OW around 125 and a 2.45x. Predicting DCEU films however is still tricky. Maybe an OW of 140 perhaps? And legs will greatly depend on WOM. 400, tops domestically.

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

I know I been called crazy with my predictions for The Star but if it looks good and is good to the GA, I can see it over Coco.

 

Lol.  No.  

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol.  No.  

 

Average gross of a Pixar movie: 264M

 

Average gross of a Sony Pictures Animation movie: 93M

 

I wouldn't bet on The Star winning this match-up. Also that average is pretty remarkable. 264M over 17 movies. Goddamn.

Edited May 16, 2017 by aabattery

[robertman2]

9 hours ago, YourMother said:

I know I been called crazy with my predictions for The Star but if it looks good and is good to the GA, I can see it over Coco.

hahahahahahahaha

 

No.

[Planodisney]

Nobody loves a great Pixar movie more than me, but boy the hype really seams to be gone right now.  I don't sense that the "hey, let's all go see the next Pixar movie" attitude still exists.  Having a year off from any release has hurt.  

[TwoMisfits]

I said Sing DOM over Moana DOM last year on another board and people thought I was nuts...

 

Once I see 1st previews for The Star, I may make the same call with it over Coco.  It wouldn't be nuts.  The Star is way better timed (coming out before its holiday while strangely Coco is coming out weeks after its holiday), bigger voiced, and fresher (we just had Kubo and Rock Dog, so "the main teenish male character saves the day with their instrument" has been done very recently, but we haven't had a fresh new animated Christmas movie for families in awhile).  

 

EDIT: I did make this call in my "bold" predictions for the year, but those were "bold", not always fully 100% reasoned or reasonable:)...

Edited May 16, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[mahnamahna]

12 hours ago, YourMother said:

How?

$38-41 million this next weekend would put it on pace for $395-410 million DOM.

 

Given the jump in actuals these past two weekends, I could potentially see a 35-40% drop next weekend since Alien is R-rated, EE is a teen romance and Wimpy 4 will possibly only open to $6 million.

 

POTC5 will be paired with it in double-features, so that should help it gain another strong hold over Memorial Day (likely still in the top 3, possibly top 2 if Baywatch underperforms).

 

It'll likely drop 54-57% its fifth weekend, but if it gets a sub-50% drop the following weekend and has a tiny drop alongside Cars 3/Father's Day (Disney holdovers tend to get a boost if another Disney film opens Father's Day weekend), $400-405 million DOM could happen if Disney pushes it.

 

 

[KJsooner]

400 million for a superhero movie not having Batman, Spidey, Supes, or even Iron Man. That's an amazing feat. How come Gotg became bigger than like Hulk, Thor, Doctor Strange, and possibly Captain America?

[thelich343]

1 minute ago, KJsooner said:

400 million for a superhero movie not having Batman, Spidey, Supes, or even Iron Man. That's an amazing feat. How come Gotg became bigger than like Hulk, Thor, Doctor Strange, and possibly Captain America?

 

That's potentially an amazing feat.

 

It hasn't happened yet.

[YM!]

24 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I said Sing DOM over Moana DOM last year on another board and people thought I was nuts...

 

Actually I made a club for that and won on here.