The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Boxofficerules]

 

Edited October 19, 2017 by Boxofficerules

[WrathOfHan]

About an hour away from previews at my theater:

 

OTB: 6/78

Different: 2/63

Snowman: 4/69

Madea: 10/78

 

OTB's lack of movement since this morning is concerning. 

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Madea

2. BR

3. Thor

4. HDD

5. SW

 

5 minutes of watching:

 

34 Snowman

27 Geostorm

23 OTB

13 Different

 

I think the PTAs for Snowman, Geostorm, and OTB will be similar with the order of TCs determining the gross and placements on the weekend chart. That's weak for Same Kind of Different and way below Battle of the Sexes, which managed to crack the top five on the night of previews in fewer theaters.

Edited October 19, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[grim22]

Deep Wang update for this week's releases:

- Geostorm and Only the Brave are about as much as The Foreigner from last week

- Madea is the same as Happy Death Day

- Snowman is lower than Professor Marston

[dxmatrixdt]

26 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

 

I cannot believe Jigsaw is finally returning!!!

[dxmatrixdt]

does anyone remember where Boo! A Madea Halloween was ranking last year on MT/Fandango?

[WrathOfHan]

> NEW RELEASES
2	-	Geostorm	Warner Bros.	3,246	-	-	1
5	-	Only The Brave	Sony / Columbia	2,577	-	-	1
9	-	Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween	Lionsgate	2,388	-	-	1
13	-	The Snowman	Universal	1,812	-	-	1
14	-	Same Kind of Different as Me	Pure Flix	1,362	-	-	1
24	-	Golmaal Again	Reliance Films	265	-	-	1
43	-	Let Her Out	TriCoast Worldwide	10	-	-	1
46	-	The Killing of the Sacred Deer	A24	4	-	-	1
48	-	Wonderstruck	Roadside Attractions	4	-	-	1
49	-	Dealt	IFC	1	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
1	4	Happy Death Day	Universal	3,296	+147	+4.7%	2
15	13	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	1,057	+157	+17.4%	5
20	21	Despicable Me 3	Universal	334	+68	+25.6%	17
21	34	Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House	Sony Classics	332	+243	+273.0%	4
22	78	Breathe (2017)	Bleecker Street	315	+311	+7,775.0%	2
26	28	The Hitman's Bodyguard	Lionsgate/Summit	172	+7	+4.2%	10
30	48	The Florida Project	A24	112	+79	+239.4%	3
36	43	Logan Lucky	Bleecker Street	70	+29	+70.7%	10
37	64	Goodbye Christopher Robin	Fox Searchlight	61	+52	+577.8%	2
38	54	Take Every Wave: The Life of Liard Hamilton	IFC	37	+16	+76.2%	4
40	59	Walking Out	IFC	32	+18	+128.6%	3
45	111	78/52: Hitchcock's Shower Scene	IFC	4	+3	+300.0%	2
> NO CHANGE
8	9	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	2,515	-	-	2
17	14	Marshall	Open Road Films	821	-	-	2
> DECLINING
3	1	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	3,203	-855	-21.1%	3
4	2	The Mountain Between Us	Fox	3,151	-108	-3.3%	3
6	3	It	Warner Bros. (New Line)	2,560	-616	-19.4%	7
7	5	American Made	Universal	2,548	-550	-17.8%	4
10	7	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	Fox	2,318	-664	-22.3%	5
11	8	My Little Pony: The Movie	Lionsgate	2,301	-227	-9.0%	3
12	6	The LEGO Ninjago Movie	Warner Bros.	2,102	-951	-31.1%	5
16	12	Professor Marston & the Wonder Women	Annapurna Pictures	959	-270	-22.0%	2
18	11	Battle of the Sexes	Fox Searchlight	545	-849	-60.9%	5
19	10	Flatliners (2017)	Sony / Columbia	535	-1,448	-73.0%	4
23	15	American Assassin	Lionsgate	312	-508	-62.0%	6
25	20	Dunkirk	Warner Bros.	188	-80	-29.9%	14
27	17	Home Again	Open Road Films	158	-203	-56.2%	7
28	16	The Stray	Purdie Distribution	139	-291	-67.7%	3

 

 

loooool Flatliners  ez Casino points incoming for me

Breathe is getting pushed into as many theaters as possible before WOM kicks in.

I'm surprised MLP isn't losing more theaters; every theater in my area that had it is getting rid of it.

[BXT]

Breathe will be lucky to have a $1000 PTA after that opening week. Geostorm has a shot at $15 million with that presale number.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

 

Suburbicon's low theater count is unsurprising considering the reviews. I doubt it even makes as much as Leatherheads did at this point.

[WrathOfHan]

Final sales for previews here tonight:

 

OTB: 13/78

Different: 6/63

Snowman: 15/69

Madea: 22/78

 

OTB sold 3 less than The Foreigner (16/78), Snowman sold at least 7 less than mother! (my showing had at least 22 people in it plus the second showing of the night), Different is about a third of Home Again (21 tickets total for the night), and Madea sold about half of THB (39 total)

[WrathOfHan]

Reminder: Jigsaw and Suburbicon's original TCs were 3,000 and 2,900 respectively  Now the question is if Thank You can stay over 2k!

[Boxofficerules]

Are we going to have a weakend?

[DAJK]

Theatres on the east coast (Toronto/Ottawa) I see Snowman selling 2x tonight than Only the Brave.

[dxmatrixdt]

39 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Are we going to have a weakend?

weekend looking to improve from last weekend

[Hiccup23]

Shit weekend. 

 

 

Tyler Perry Halloween 2	32	1,138	2.8%
Snowman	40	212	18.9%
Only the Brave	29	156	18.6%

[WrathOfHan]

Tomorrow at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Madea:

 

10:00: 8/113

11:15: 5/78

12:30: 7/113

1:45: 0/78

3:00: 3/113

4:15: 0/78

5:30: 0/113

6:45: 7/78

8:00: 33/113

9:15: 2/78

10:30: 1/113 

 

Ninjago:

 

11:30: 0/63

2:00: 0/63

4:30: 15/63

 

Different:

 

10:40: 2/78

1:30: 4/78

4:20: 4/78

7:10: 4/78

10:30: 0/69

 

Geostorm:

 

10:30: 7/78

1:15 3D: 2/78

4:05: 0/78

6:50 3D: 3/78

9:30 3D: 0/78

 

OTB: 

 

10:05: 2/78

1:10: 2/78

4:20: 0/78

7:20: 0/78

10:25: 0/78

 

Foreigner:

 

10:55: 4/124

1:40: 0/124

4:30: 0/124

6:30: 0/78

9:15: 0/78

 

Snowman:

 

10:25: 2/78

1:20: 0/78

4:20: 0/78

7:00: 0/78

9:50: 0/78

 

HDD:

 

11:00: 0/78

1:35: 0/78

4:00: 1/78

7:15: 0/124

9:45: 0/124

 

BR:

 

10:15: 0/67

12:40: 1/69

4:30: 0/67

6:55: 0/69

10:00: 0/78

 

 

Madea: 65/1,068

Ninjago: 15/189 (likely a group because only one showing has sold anything)

Different: 14/381

Geostorm: 12/390

OTB: 4/390

Foreigner: 4/528

Snowman: 2/390

HDD: 1/482

BR: 1/350

MBU, AM, and It have sold nothing.

 

Comps:

 

Madea:

 

60% of Kingsman

135% of AM

175% of BR (obviously not a comparison; this is just to show how well Madea is selling)

190% of HDD

200% of THB

 

Geostorm: 

 

8% of It (lol)

20% of Kingsman

30% of BR

55% of Foreigner

 

OTB:

 

6% of AA

8% of AM

20% of Foreigner

 

Snowman: 

 

15% of Flatliners

20% of mother! (note: mother!'s count was taken Friday morning; half of the 11 tickets would be about 30%)

 

Same Kind of Different is more than triple Home Again and BOTS.

[DAJK]

Fucking awful for Only The Brave EVERYWHERE I look

[WrathOfHan]

I'm getting some Detroit vibes from OTB. Reviews are great, but who's in the mood for this movie? The timing of this release isn't strong given all the wildfires recently, and the audience for this is really narrow; there is basically zero chance that over 10% of the audience is under 25, and it very well could be 95% over 25. Hell, even the runtime isn't far off from Detroit: the movie is 6 minutes shorter than Detroit without credits. As I've mentioned before, Sony movies without TCs in the high-2000s+ tend to bomb or underperform too. I'm not feeling this one at all.

[filmlover]

I don't think Sony has much stake in Only the Brave. It and the Sicario sequel were originally gonna be released by Lionsgate until the production studio split with them and those two went to Sony. 

[DAJK]

I don't understand why the wildfires would hurt Only the Brave to be honest. Maybe it's just a cultural difference between Canada and the States but I would normally assume people would flock to see something that honours those who put their lives on the line to protect us from things like wildfires which are in the news right now. 

 

Anyone able to add a different take on this?