The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the Minion]

21 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Wrinkle in Time	606	1582	38.31%
Strangers	41	1672	2.45%
Tomb Raider	11	1560	0.71%

 

I might be able to do another update tomorrow, but in case I don't....

 

Comps for Wrinkle:

107% of Wonder ($29.4M)

473% of Showman's 3-Day ($41.7M)

396% of Paddington 2's 3-Day ($43.6M)

179% of Peter Rabbit ($44.7M)

 

Comps for Strangers:

69% of Happy Death Day ($18.1M)

53% of Insidious 4 ($15.5M)

124% of Winchester ($11.6M)

137% of Annihilation ($15.1M)

 

The stuff for Wrinkle sounds amazing, but the one thing I will always emphasize is that my theater is heavily skewed towards black-led movies and a good chunk of its customers are African-American, so those high presales can and should be taken with some grains of salt.

Wrinkle in Time	739	1582	46.71%
Strangers	65	1672	3.89%

 

Wrinkle Comps:

130% of Wonder ($35.9M)

577% of Showman's 3-Day ($50.8M)

483% of Paddington 2's 3-Day ($53.1M)

218% of Peter Rabbit ($54.5M)

 

Strangers Comps:

110% of Happy Death Day ($28.7M)

83% of Insidious 4 ($24.6M)

197% of Winchester ($18.3M)

217% of Annihilation ($24M)

 

Yeah, Strangers is definitely overperforming at my theater.

[Curtis1986]

 I think we should also keep in mind that films that cater towards the African-American Community are always under track and tracking. Case and point Black Panther. So if a wrinkle of time is doing great in pre-sales especially with African American community that is a great sign for the weekend.

Edited March 8, 2018 by Curtis1986

[Valonqar]

So if WIT is #1, what headlines are going to say? They love to do a word play on movie titles but this is a tough one. What do you do with words Wrinkle and Time ?  

Edited March 8, 2018 by Valonqar

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So if WIT is #1, what headlines are going to say? They love to do a word play on movie titles but this is a tough one. What do you do with words Wrinkle and Time ?  

"Even Black Panther can't stop the Wrinkles"

Edited March 8, 2018 by feasby007

[DAJK]

I could see Wrinkle at 41-43M this weekend but I still think 50 is too high

 

10M doesn't seem out of the question for Strangers 

[Porthos]

Rank	LW	Title	Distributor	Theater Count	Change	% Change	Est. Screens	Change	Est. Shows	Change	Week #
> NEW RELEASES
1	-	A Wrinkle in Time	Buena Vista	3,980	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
6	-	Strangers: Prey at Night	Aviron	2,464	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
7	-	Gringo	STX Entertainment	2,404	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
8	-	The Hurricane Heist	Entertainment Studios	2,402	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
16	-	Thoroughbreds	Focus Features	549	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
35	-	The Leisure Seeker	Sony Classics	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
38	-	The Death of Stalin	IFC	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
4	4	Red Sparrow	Fox	3,064	+8	+0.3%	-	-	-	-	2
5	5	Death Wish (2018)	MGM	2,882	+35	+1.2%	-	-	-	-	2
11	15	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	1,552	+720	+86.5%	-	-	-	-	15
19	30	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Buena Vista	246	+25	+11.3%	-	-	-	-	13
24	42	A Fantastic Woman	Sony Classics	166	+77	+86.5%	-	-	-	-	6
33	49	Loveless (2018)	Sony Classics	37	+12	+48.0%	-	-	-	-	4
34	73	The Cured	IFC	29	+24	+480.0%	-	-	-	-	3
36	59	The Florida Project	A24	12	+2	+20.0%	-	-	-	-	23
37	75	Foxtrot	Sony Classics	6	+2	+50.0%	-	-	-	-	2
> DECLINING
2	1	Black Panther	Buena Vista	3,942	-142	-3.5%	-	-	-	-	4
3	2	Peter Rabbit	Sony / Columbia	3,112	-495	-13.7%	-	-	-	-	5
9	7	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony / Columbia	2,157	-156	-6.7%	-	-	-	-	12
10	8	Annihilation	Paramount	1,709	-403	-19.1%	-	-	-	-	3
12	6	Fifty Shades Freed	Universal	1,357	-1,257	-48.1%	-	-	-	-	5
13	11	The Greatest Showman	Fox	952	-455	-32.3%	-	-	-	-	12
14	10	Every Day (2018)	Orion Pictures	615	-1,054	-63.2%	-	-	-	-	3
15	16	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Fox Searchlight	552	-218	-28.3%	-	-	-	-	18
17	12	Call Me by Your Name	Sony Classics	309	-605	-66.2%	-	-	-	-	16
18	19	The Post	Fox	278	-393	-58.6%	-	-	-	-	12
20	13	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	243	-670	-73.4%	-	-	-	-	16
21	21	Maze Runner: The Death Cure	Fox	214	-329	-60.6%	-	-	-	-	7
22	29	Coco	Buena Vista	194	-41	-17.4%	-	-	-	-	16
23	17	Phantom Thread	Focus Features	183	-532	-74.4%	-	-	-	-	11
25	18	Lady Bird	A24	156	-554	-78.0%	-	-	-	-	19
26	26	Den of Thieves	STX Entertainment	104	-165	-61.3%	-	-	-	-	8
27	23	Samson	Pure Flix	93	-341	-78.6%	-	-	-	-	4
28	40	The Party (2017)	Roadside Attractions	91	-1	-1.1%	-	-	-	-	4
29	28	Hostiles	Entertainment Studios	90	-161	-64.1%	-	-	-	-	12
30	37	Thor: Ragnarok	Buena Vista	70	-40	-36.4%	-	-	-	-	19
31	33	Forever My Girl	Roadside Attractions	64	-81	-55.9%	-	-	-	-	8
32	45	Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool	Sony Classics	41	-12	-22.6%	-	-	-	-	11

Edited March 8, 2018 by Porthos

[MovieMan89]

Pretty fantastic expansion for SoW given all the new releases this weekend. Hope it hits 70m. 

[Barnack]

53 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Pretty fantastic expansion for SoW given all the new releases this weekend. Hope it hits 70m. 

Moonlight had a bit more theater (1,564) against Logan opening and Get out second weekend, so I am not sure how good this year for the Oscar movie expansion.

 

4 new wide release vs last year 3, Panther still playing bigger than almost any new movies will do, I guess ok for the BP winner but not sure if it is out of the ordinary fantastic.

 

Shape of water: 1,552 from 832 +86%

Moonlight: 1,564 from 585 +167%

Birdman: 1,213 theater from 407 +198% 

Spotlight: 1,227 from 675 +82%

12 year's: 1,065 from 411 +159%

 

[Morieris]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

So if WIT is #1, what headlines are going to say? They love to do a word play on movie titles but this is a tough one. What do you do with words Wrinkle and Time ?  

 

"Seems like 'Time' is always on Disney's side - The Disney Reign Continues." 

[WrathOfHan]

*Checks A Wrinkle in Time presales 10 minutes out*

 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

*Checks A Wrinkle in Time presales 10 minutes out*

 

I... I don't know whether that GIF is a good or bad thing 

[Curtis1986]

Any updates on MT

[WrathOfHan]

*Checks A Wrinkle in Time sales around Orlando*

 

 

Everywhere I'm looking around Orlando is weak af for WIT. Even Disney Springs is looking light too. Sub-30M is gonna happen

Strangers is doing OK in general, while Gringo and Hurricane Heist are ranging anywhere from 1 ticket to low teens  I'll have my theater's sales up in a few minutes

 

[Hiccup23]

A Wrinkle In Time is bombing at my theater 

 

84/814

 

 

[Boxofficerules]

WIT looks more like a family movie that probably wouldn’t do so well in evening showings.

[Curtis1986]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

WIT looks more like a family movie that probably wouldn’t do so well in evening showings.

Agree  Why would anybody think families will take the kids to a 7 or 8 p.m. showing on a school night. 

[TwoMisfits]

Agree on WiT selling as a mainly family movie...

 

Folks should check current Saturday sales at their theater before declaring "sub-$30M is a likely number"...if those look bad, then this movie might have a problem...

Edited March 9, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Curtis1986]

24.7 on MovieTickets for AWIT. Only 5% away in from BP. Feeling confident for. 40+ weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

Final sales tonight at my theater:

 

A Wrinkle in Time: 41/113

Gringo: 15/78

Strangers: 14/63

Hurricane Heist: 8/67

 

WIT comps:

 

8% of Black Panther (16.2M)

80% of Coco (40.4M)

103% of Wonder (28.3M)

370% of Paddington (40.7M)

 

There aren't a whole lot of good comps, but Wonder seems like the best to me. Based on everything I've seen around Orlando, I'd be more inclined to use the Wonder comp than Coco or Paddington. Friday numbers may tell a different story.

 

Strangers:

 

35% of Jigsaw (5.7M)

40% of Insidious (11.8M)

45% of Happy Death Day (11.7M)

50% of Annihilation (5.6M)

170% of Winchester (15.8M)

 

Something I'd like to note: this had 9 tickets sold last night, so it only gained five since then. That isn't particularly encouraging.

 

Gringo has the same amount of tickets sold as Downsizing (5M), but I really don't have good comps for that and Hurricane Heist because of how damn low they're tracking. Again, Friday should be a different case.

 

 

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Moonlight had a bit more theater (1,564) against Logan opening and Get out second weekend, so I am not sure how good this year for the Oscar movie expansion.

 

4 new wide release vs last year 3, Panther still playing bigger than almost any new movies will do, I guess ok for the BP winner but not sure if it is out of the ordinary fantastic.

 

Shape of water: 1,552 from 832 +86%

Moonlight: 1,564 from 585 +167%

Birdman: 1,213 theater from 407 +198% 

Spotlight: 1,227 from 675 +82%

12 year's: 1,065 from 411 +159%

 

While each of them had lower weekend gross on oscar weekend than SoW

SOW: 1.48m

Moonlight: 703k

Spotlight: 736k

Birdman: 877k

12 years: 975k

Suggest that space to grow in term of % might be lower due to the higher base raw number.....