The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, YLF said:

Most of the other ones aren't mainstream movies. This one is supposed to be mainstream and appeal to everyone to show whether or not gay films can be viable in the box office.

I do not think the mainstream ones really have had a big audience though.....  I dont even understand Fault in Our Stars, that opens big, the next 3 tearjerkers maybe make 3-10M OW?

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Wrinkle in Time

3. I Can Only Imagine

4. Strangers

5. Game Night

 

5 minutes of watching: 

 

27 Love, Simon

22 Tomb Raider

18 Ready Player One

4 Pacific Rim

2 7 Days in Entebbe

1 Isle of Dogs

 

Love, Simon is about to blow tracking out of the water  

[Hiccup23]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Wrinkle in Time

3. I Can Only Imagine

4. Strangers

5. Game Night

 

5 minutes of watching: 

 

27 Love, Simon

22 Tomb Raider

18 Ready Player One

4 Pacific Rim

2 7 Days in Entebbe

1 Isle of Dogs

 

Love, Simon is about to blow tracking out of the water  

 

Comparisons?

[Hiccup23]

Just did 1 minute watching on Pulse

 

Love, Simon- 15 tickets old 

I Can Only Imagine- 10 tickets sold

Tomb Raider- 4 tickets sold 

[TalismanRing]

From @WrathOfHan's  data-

 

Love Simon: 5.4 avg (Tues/Wed midnight)

 

Hard to find truly comparable comps but:

 

Teen Romance comps:

Everything Everything -   WED:  6 avg (8:30pm)  THUR: 8 avg (8:30pm) / $11.7m ow

Forever My Girl:  THUR: 1.2 (3:45pm), 2.33 (7pm) /  4.34m ow

 

Comedy comps:

Home Again:  THUR:  4 (9am), 5 (12pm), 5-6 (4:45pm) 8 (8:45pm)/ $8.56m ow  

Logan Lucky:  WED:   1.15 (3:20pm)   THUR:  2.7 (10.20) 3 (2pm) 4.4 (4pm) 11.6 (6:30)  11 (7:30)

Hitman's Bodyguard: WED    3.8 (3:20pm)  THUR:  5 (10:20am) 7.1 (2pm) 11 (4pm) 19 (6:30) 25 (7:30)

Pitch Perfect : MON 7.2 (8:15pm)  THUR: 38 (7:03pm)

Game Night:   THUR:  8.6 (4pm), 12.4 (4:30pm), 14 (5:45pm) 16 (7pm)

 

Looking pretty strong

Edited March 14, 2018 by TalismanRing

[ZeeSoh]

TR has to pick up presales in these last 2 days or hope that it has tons of walk ups because based on presales so far its looking more likely to go under 20 million than over. 

[YLF]

how does one help with this tracking stuff? Im new to the forum

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I do not think the mainstream ones really have had a big audience though.....  I dont even understand Fault in Our Stars, that opens big, the next 3 tearjerkers maybe make 3-10M OW?

THat was a giant bestsellers and pop culture phenomenom:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books

 

Sale around the same as the first Hunger Games/Gone Girl/Girl on a train book apparently, that OW was really not surprising same for the heavy frontloadeness, really a giant fanbase and one that goes to the movie theater.

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Wrinkle in Time

3. I Can Only Imagine

4. Strangers

5. Game Night

 

5 minutes of watching: 

 

27 Love, Simon

22 Tomb Raider

18 Ready Player One

4 Pacific Rim

2 7 Days in Entebbe

1 Isle of Dogs

 

Love, Simon is about to blow tracking out of the water  

I really hope so! I’d be happy with even $15m. 

[marveldcfox]

I think in the Simon thread I once said it will beat TR on opening weekend.  Looks like that will happen. Funny thing is that I actually liked TR a lot so it would be kind of a bummer if it completely flops.

 

 

[RRA]

22 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

I think in the Simon thread I once said it will beat TR on opening weekend.  Looks like that will happen. Funny thing is that I actually liked TR a lot so it would be kind of a bummer if it completely flops.

 

 

Blame WB for being poor at marketing TR and basically have abandoned it at this point to promote RPO

[marveldcfox]

38 minutes ago, RRA said:

Blame WB for being poor at marketing TR and basically have abandoned it at this point to promote RPO

RPO will do as well as BFG.

[KeepItU25071906]

3 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

RPO will do as well as BFG.

good joke

[lab276]

You know it's so odd, all this time I thought TR was from Paramount because of the non-existent marketing. The best stuff I've seen are all jokes on twitter. 

 

 

 

 

[Hiccup23]

Just did a Pulse 15 minute watch

 

Love, Simon: 66 tickets

Tomb Raider: 88 tickets

I Can Only Imagine: 262 tickets 

[filmlover]

I have to imagine Love, Simon hasn't been an easy film to track just because of how "new" it is. It's the first major Hollywood movie to have an openly gay teen protagonist (and not as a sassy best friend), and the marketing has been selling it like it were any other movie (even if publications like Entertainment Weekly were running articles last week about the coming out stories of some celebrities to coincide with the film's release). That kind of groundbreaking stuff should give it wider appeal than the teen set (especially with reviews looking to be as strong as they're looking to be), but I don't know.

[Hiccup23]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I have to imagine Love, Simon hasn't been an easy film to track just because of how "new" it is. It's the first major Hollywood movie to have an openly gay teen protagonist (and not as a sassy best friend), and the marketing has been selling it like it were any other movie (even if publications like Entertainment Weekly were running articles last week about the coming out stories of some celebrities to coincide with the film's release). That kind of groundbreaking stuff should give it wider appeal than the teen set (especially with reviews looking to be as strong as they're looking to be), but I don't know.

 

Having seen the film, I am less worried about its opening because I am 99% positive it will have strong legs. Why?

 

1. I live in Madison...very liberal college town and all the showings were sold out so I was forced to see it in my hometown of Oconomowoc. My hometown is located not in a college town but rather in a 99% Republican, large elderly population/suburban white family town (the high school in my town just limited teachers on talking about white privilege because parents got upset). 

 

2. The showing at the theater was sold out.

 

3. The audience in my showing was diverse mix between high schoolers, spring breakers, adults, and families.

 

4. Audience reaction was very positive and the audience clapped during the reveals and at the end of the film.

 

5. I heard several people saying things like, "Oh we need to take (insert name) to see this when it comes out." or "That was better than I thought. We see see it again when it comes out."

 

So yeah, maybe I am riding my buzz from the advanced screening but I think if this film could get such positive reactions from  the stereotypical middle America demographic my hometown is made up of, I think it will get extremely positive reactions elsewhere.....maybe not the Deep South though haha  

[filmlover]

Just now, Hiccup23 said:

 

Having seen the film, I am less worried about its opening because I am 99% positive it will have strong legs. Why?

 

1. I live in Madison...very liberal college town and all the showings were sold out so I was forced to see it in my hometown of Oconomowoc. My hometown is located not in a college town but rather in a 99% Republican, large elderly population/suburban white family town (the high school in my town just limited teachers on talking about white privilege because parents got upset). 

 

2. The showing at the theater was sold out.

 

3. The audience in my showing was diverse mix between high schoolers, spring breakers, adults, and families.

 

4. Audience reaction was very positive and the audience clapped during the reveals and at the end of the film.

 

5. I heard several people saying things like, "Oh we need to take (insert name) to see this when it comes out." or "That was better than I thought. We see see it again when it comes out."

 

So yeah, maybe I am riding my buzz from the advanced screening but I think if this film could get such positive reactions from  the stereotypical middle America demographic my hometown is made up of, I think it will get extremely positive reactions elsewhere.....maybe not the Deep South though haha  

Oh I've had no doubt this would connect with audiences, if not in a big opening then in legs/WOM. The trailer (especially the ending with all the straight kids "coming out" to their parents) slayed every time I saw it at the movies.

[TalismanRing]

8 hours ago, YLF said:

how does one help with this tracking stuff? Im new to the forum

Welcome

 

There are two sites that show tickets sold.

 

Movietickets.com gives a rolling 24 hour % of tickets sold for the top 5 films

 

Fandango ranks the top 5 but not by %.  But it does show a 15-20 minute delay of tickets sales  (including the theater they're being sold)

https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html#

 

One can also check seating charts at MT.com and Fandango to see sellouts or how many or what % of seats have been sold.

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/  gives tracking and projection updates as well as predictions for the upcoming w/e.  They also give Twitter and Facebook numbers.

 

https://boxofficemjo.com also gives weekly predictions

 

HSX and their forum are another resource for projections

https://www.hsx.com/

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3

 

IMDB.com also shows the rank of films in terms of page hits

 

Variety semi regularly has Comscore data on social media from twitter to Youtube. 

 

Youtube trailers with views, likes & comments are another piece of info - though most useful when comparing films in similar genres and audience base

 

Edited March 14, 2018 by TalismanRing

[ZeeSoh]

9 hours ago, YLF said:

how does one help with this tracking stuff? Im new to the forum

Also to add to what TalismanRing mentioned above. Many users report screen counts updates for their local cinema. Other users tally and report seats available and seats sold for their local cinema or all cinemas in their town or city (kudos to them for their hard work).