The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

How many memorial day weekends have we said a movie will open fine as families have nothing else to watch and the film still underperforms?

 

 

 

It depends on the movie too though. Lets look at all the underperformers in the last few years:

 

2015: Tomorrowland, the definition of a meh movie which also had confusing marketing

 

2016: X-Men Apocalypse and Alice 2. Both looked very much like non-events and the quality wasnt really there as well. They really didnt scream "You have to see this asap"

 

2017: Pirates 5 and fucking Baywatch. Lol.

 

The line-up of movies of Memorial Day weekend was just very lackluster these past years. Solo looks imo solid but it also doesnt feel like something one has to see honestly.

[narniadis]

@Lordmandeep presenting the data doesnt make you an idiot, its the constant bad mouthing and yammering that you do elsewhere about the film that has people thinking that. 

 

Solo will be fortunate to do 100/125 given the lackluster presales. It aint sniffing 300m and will be the lowest SW by far when adjusting for inflation if not in total. The data is there, it just needs to be presented rationally. 

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

@Lordmandeep presenting the data doesnt make you an idiot, its the constant bad mouthing and yammering that you do elsewhere about the film that has people thinking that. 

 

Solo will be fortunate to do 100/125 given the lackluster presales. It aint sniffing 300m and will be the lowest SW by far when adjusting for inflation if not in total. The data is there, it just needs to be presented rationally. 

 

 

The conversation about Solo has gone beyond rational. 

 

Some of the best predictors on this site are more wishcasting then predicting. 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[narniadis]

9 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

The conversation about Solo has gone beyond rational. 

 

Some of the best predictors on this site are more wishcasting then predicting. 

I agree, but you playing the far side of Devils advocate hasnt done you any favors

[WrathOfHan]

On 5/14/2018 at 7:26 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Chappaquiddick, I Feel Pretty, Lean on Pete, Rampage, and A Quiet Place are gone.

 

Deadpool 2: 24 (XL x2, Biggest x2, and Average)

Show Dogs: 6 (Biggest and Average)

Book Club: 5 (Average)

 

Avengers: Infinity War: 8 (Down 10 and lost 3D; Average and Smallest)

Breaking In: 6 (Flat; Smallest)

Life of the Party: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Overboard: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

Breaking In and Overboard are gone.

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 25 (19 2D/5 3D; XL x2, Biggest, Average, and Smallest)

 

Deadpool 2: 14 (Down 10; Biggest and Average x2)

Book Club: 5 (Flat; Average)

Life of the Party: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Show Dogs: 5 (Down 1; Smallest)

Avengers: Infinity War: 4 (Down 4; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Full showtimes for Thursday are up at my AMC, and Solo only got an extra show at 9:45. That's 7 total for the night, and that extra show is just taking over one of Deadpool's screens that's already playing in the evening  Considering the other SW movies and the recent CBM openers (IW and Deadpool) took over almost all of the theater, this is a sign of things to come.

Edited May 22, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Full showtimes for Thursday are up at my AMC, and Solo only got an extra show at 9:45. That's 7 total for the night, and that extra show is just taking over one of Deadpool's screens that's already playing in the evening  Considering the other SW movies and the recent CBM openers (IW and Deadpool) took over almost all of the theater, this is a sign of things to come.

I was checking for LA sellouts yesterday and noticed that Solo had already been given a lot of showtimes. They gave it normal Star Wars level showtimes but the sellouts were not there, even the Fullerton and Montebello theaters which sell out for everything still had good seats left. That's why I'm not expecting a big increase in showings today, they have already given it a lot of capacity.

[Nova]

On 5/20/2018 at 3:12 AM, Nova said:

Just did a check for Solo for Thursday night at my theater. It has 3 2D showtimes and 2 3D showtimes 

 

2D 
7:00 PM 85/116 
9:15 PM 88/142 
10:45 PM 36/142 

 

3D 
7:00 PM 84/142 
10:15 PM 30/116 

 

Two things I noticed. My theater is not being bullish on this at all especially compared to other Star Wars films. Secondly it also has one less showtime than DP2 at this point in time which I'm actually surprised about but DP2 did get an additional three on Wednesday so I will check to see if my theater does the same for Solo. 
*Also to note the Regal and United Artists that I did last minute tracking for DP2 isn't being bullish on this either with showtimes compared to other Star Wars films. I haven't done a seat count for it but I think I will as the date gets closer. 

 

I think before I had it at $140M for the 3-day and like $170M for the 4-day but I think I'm going to lower those. I ignored the warning signs with DP2 leading up to release so I don't know if I want to make that same mistake again. I'm gonna go with $120M for the 3-day and $140M for the 4-day. If I see an uptick in sales I'll obviously change it. 

Doing this update today because I have a final exam that I'm not prepared for at all Thursday morning so I'm gonna try my best to stay off this site tomorrow evening (I'll fail at that). I may update again tomorrow night to give the updated showtimes (and to have better data for future films) because like i said BOT is like some cocaine addiction that I have. 

 

*No updates in showtimes as of yet 

 

2D 

7PM 89/116 

9:15 PM 96/142 

10:45 PM 56/142 

 

3D 

7PM 90/142

10:15 PM 33/116 

 

[XO21]

Per Deadline

 

Domestic 4-day: $135M-$170M

Overseas: $150M-$170M.

Worldwide:  low-end $285M, high end $340M

 

Bonus :

 

...exhibitors love the movie. “I haven’t heard one bad word about Solo,” says one major studio distribution boss" .

Edited May 22, 2018 by XO21

[Lordmandeep]

Looks like the industry really trying to sell this movie hard. 

[Cheebs86]

Deadline says  Disney's internal conservative estimate is 130-150.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Cheebs86

[LonePirate]

One thing to keep in mind for Solo is that Star Wars films are practically family films nowadays (Rogue One being a possible exception). Solo definitely feels like and is marketed like a family film. The marketplace is hungering for a family film and now we have one with a holiday weekend to boot.

 

Could Solo underperform? Sure. Could it easily exceed the lowered expectations people now have for the film? Absolutely!

[filmlover]

I'm surprised Disney still goes after Memorial Day weekend when it's produced nothing but flops or disappointments for them. Prince of Persia, Tomorrowland, Alice 2, Pirates 5, and now potentially Solo. We'll see if Aladdin breaks the curse next year, I guess.

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm surprised Disney still goes after Memorial Day weekend when it's produced nothing but flops or disappointments for them. Prince of Persia, Tomorrowland, Alice 2, Pirates 5, and now potentially Solo. We'll see if Aladdin breaks the curse next year, I guess.

I don't think the release date was the issue...

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

I don't think the release date was the issue...

That is true. All of these movies had at least something working against them regardless of release date. Which will make it all the more interesting to see where Aladdin (which most likely isn't quite gonna make Beauty and the Beast '17 or, inevitably, The Lion King '19 money but will be huge regardless) lands.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That is true. All of these movies had at least something working against them regardless of release date. Which will make it all the more interesting to see where Aladdin (which most likely isn't quite gonna make Beauty and the Beast '17 or, inevitably, The Lion King '19 money but will be huge regardless) lands.

Yep I agree. Although I like Tomorrowland, I am aware that it won't please everybody. And I absolutely love Pirates, but then I loved all the pirates films (yes, even #4).

 

I see Aladdin at somewhere between Maleficent ($750m) and Beauty ($1250m) with the most likely landing point around Jungle Book ($950m). I say quality determines where in that 750-1250 it lands imo

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

One thing to keep in mind for Solo is that Star Wars films are practically family films nowadays (Rogue One being a possible exception). Solo definitely feels like and is marketed like a family film. The marketplace is hungering for a family film and now we have one with a holiday weekend to boot.

 

Could Solo underperform? Sure. Could it easily exceed the lowered expectations people now have for the film? Absolutely!

They may be family films but they have a huge hard core fandom that has made all previous new SW movies have disproportionately large pre-sales.  4.35, 4.88, and 5.34 are their preview to internal multipliers.  As it stands, this movie is going to have to be exceedingly more walk up driven to hit those $140-170m 4 day projections,.

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That is true. All of these movies had at least something working against them regardless of release date. Which will make it all the more interesting to see where Aladdin (which most likely isn't quite gonna make Beauty and the Beast '17 or, inevitably, The Lion King '19 money but will be huge regardless) lands.

If Solo doesn't break it, I feel like Aladdin can probably break Pirates 3's record. Losing ~$50M from BatB's opening gets it to around $125M, which seems like a very feasible 3-Day amount for that movie.

[WrathOfHan]

On 5/15/2018 at 5:02 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Bad Samaritan, Blumhouse's Truth or Dare, I Feel Pretty, and A Wrinkle in Time are gone.

 

WEEKDAY:

 

Deadpool 2: 12 (Biggest and Average x2)

Book Club: 4 (2nd Biggest)

Show Dogs: 4 (3rd Smallest)

 

Avengers: Infinity War: 6 (Down 6; 3 2D/3 3D; Average x2)

Breaking In: 4 (Flat; Average)

A Quiet Place: 5 (Up 1; 4th Smallest)

Life of the Party: 4 (Flat; Average)

Overboard: 4 (Flat; 2nd Smallest)

Rampage: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Overboard, A Quiet Place, and Rampage are gone.

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 15 (7 2D/6 3D; Biggest and Average x3)

 

Deadpool 2: 12 (Flat; Average x2 and 4th Smallest)

Breaking In: 6 (Up 1; 3rd Smallest)

Book Club: 5 (Up 1; 2nd Biggest)

Life of the Party: 5 (Up 1; Average)

Show Dogs: 5 (Up 1; 2nd Smallest)

Avengers: Infinity War: 4 (Down 2; 2 2D/2 3D; Smallest)

 

During the weekend, Solo and Book Club steal a few shows from Life of the Party and Breaking In, and Deadpool has the 2nd biggest auditorium instead of Book Club.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

They may be family films but they have a huge hard core fandom that has made all previous new SW movies have disproportionately large pre-sales.  4.35, 4.88, and 5.34 are their preview to internal multipliers.  As it stands, this movie is going to have to be exceedingly more walk up driven to hit those $140-170m 4 day projections,.

The thing is, are the folks who normally buy tickets early holding off until WOM starts tricking out, which can happen even during the OW.  Or are they just not going to show up at all?  Or if they do, much later in the run.

 

Basically, are those hard core fans staying away for good.   I don't have an answer to that question.  I suspect the folks making industry projections don't either.