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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, TLK said:

Fandango Presales Volume.

 

Date           Name                      Monday      Tuesday       Wednesday
04/06/18    A Quiet Place           2177          4003            10665
04/06/18    Blockers                  504            1106             2931
04/13/18    Rampage                705            1508             4109
04/13/18    Truth Or Dare         385            760               2133
04/20/18    Super Troopers 2    2825          3447             6811
04/20/18    I Feel Pretty             871            1610            4423
04/27/18    Avengers 3              49836        54892          68826   
05/04/18    Overboard               84              409             1044

05/11/18    Breaking In              727            1204            2899
05/11/18    Life Of The Party      587            1310           3010

05/18/18    Deadpool 2              23134        28896         41212
05/18/18    Show Dogs              6               128               369
05/18/18    Book Club                836            1599           3283

05/25/18    Solo : Star Wars       13688       15855           28533

06/01/18    Action Point             17              48               197

06/01/18    Adrift                       63              308             1268

06/01/18    Upgrade                  9                119              522

06/08/18    Hotel Artemis          28              177              507

06/08/18    Hereditary               669            1201            3108

06/08/18    Oceans 8                 3048          4429            11225

06/15/18    Incredibles 2           20872         23430         39337

06/15/18    Tag                         314             660             1448

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

Thanks for these.

Using these to predict Incredibles 2 Opening, well some of these (I rounded to full millions)

Name of film: Using Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, M+T, T+W, M+T+W:

 

A Quiet Place: 481M, 294M, 185M, 360M, 215M, 249M

Super Troopers 2: 112M, 103M, 88M, 107M, 92M, 97M

I Feel Pretty:384M, 233M, 143M, 286M,167M, 194M

Avengers: 108M, 110M, 147M, 109M, 131M, 124M

Deadpool 2: 113M, 102M, 120M, 107M, 112M, 113M

Book Club: 339M,199M, 163M, 247M,175M, 199M

Solo: 129M, 125M, 116M, 127M, 119M, 122M

Hereditary: 424M, 265M, 172M, 322M, 198M, 228M

Ocean's 8: 284M, 220M,146M, 247M,167M, 186M

 

Those are movies with normal to high presales compared to the OW (3-Day).

 

It's an animated movie, that should lower the presales, so I guess it won't be as front loaded.

 

In other words, we lack other movies to compare it too.

 

Edited by Taruseth
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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Someone has actually gone through and done this. Not my info to give though. Let’s just say I’d be surprised at anything more than a tiny bump in boost since it’s very spread out over several titles

1,000 people for the weekend, $10 each = $10,000.  10 of those is 100k.  Maybe the top movie makes that much when evenly distributed.  It seems difficult to make an actual count of all the drive ins across the area

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

9:10 AM ET - MT Update....Not quite as high as Dory if I recall someone mentioned it was a 70%? Good sign for JW as well. 

 

59.9% The Incredibles 2

9.4% Ocean's 8

3.8% Solo: A Star Wars Story

3.5% Hereditary

3.2% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Someone posted a few pages back that it was at 63% in the morning.

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted (edited)

Using the Wayback Machine, on the Thursday before its release, Finding Dory was at 63% at 15:30 (PDT? EDT?).

 

Right now it is 10:15 EDT (7:15 PDT) and Incredibles 2 is at 60.6%.

 

Not that comparisons are all that relevant, however, since MT only tells us the percentage of tickets sold (a relative measure) rather than number of tickets sold.

 

MT:

Incredibles 2: 60.6%

Ocean’s 8: 9.8%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 3.7%

Hereditary: 3.5%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 3.3%

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

Edited by MikeQ
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Tower Box Office Gold

Tower

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

So you're saying you don't want to see a sequel in its second weekend beat a sequel in its first weekend because it's a sequel? :kitschjob:

My main issue is that I don't think the Incredibles was very good and I hope to see Pixar make something that I'm interested in.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)

These 4 consequtive years were the golden period for CG animation imo. Launched a humongous franchise in Ice Age (especially OS), 1st 2 Shreks and probably the 2 best Pixar movies. TS2 had release a couple of years before Shrek in 1999 and Cars released a couple of years after Incredibles in 2006.

 

2001 Shrek

2002 Ice Age (Lilo and Stitch one of the last few successful '2d' animations also released. Treasure Planet bombed this same year).

2003 Nemo

2004 Incredibles, Shrek 2 (I am not a fan of Shrek 2 but it was a rare event at the bo).

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MikeQ said:

Using the Wayback Machine, on the Thursday before its release, Finding Dory was at 63% at 15:30 (PDT? EDT?).

 

Right now it is 10:15 EDT (7:15 PDT) and Incredibles 2 is at 60.6%.

 

Not that comparisons are all that relevant, however, since MT only tells us the percentage of tickets sold (a relative measure) rather than number of tickets sold.

 

MT:

Incredibles 2: 60.6%

Ocean’s 8: 9.8%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 3.7%

Hereditary: 3.5%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 3.3%

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

this is not looking good for those 150m OW predictions 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Tonight at my theater:

 

Incredibles 2:

 

6:00: 104/113

7:00 3D: 23/78

8:00 3D: 16/69

9:00: 54/113

Total: 197/373

 

Tag: 

 

7:00: 12/78

9:30: 0/78

Total: 12/156

 

Incredibles is definitely getting more shows added.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
Just now, Barnack said:

I imagine Dr Strange could have been a logical top potential for this ?

 

Already 75m so much in advance, could even beat it I guess.

 

Going from a $57M to $75M+ is still a pretty huge jump between movies.

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Wow... that's lower than expected. 

There are no pre sales yet.  And they’ve been burned by over predicting very recently. I think it is an excellent start. 

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