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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/237300830-2019-Preview-March

 

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

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Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
         
Captain Marvel 6,647 8,737 10,157 10,232
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days
         
Us 148 181 188 215
  25 days 24 days 23 days 22 days

 

Read up on the archives here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=2060184613

 

Captain Marvel from Day 17-Day 8

.452x of Black Panther (109.4M)

 

As I said before, throughout the week, it's gone rom 83M to 92.1M to 100.8M to now 109.4M. Even more impressive is that CM saw a slight increase from Wednesday to Thursday, which Black Panther didn't have. I'll probably look into this later if demand is there, but while its ticket sales are lower than Black Panther, it seems to be having stronger holds and increases from day to day, which helps close the gap and shows there's strong interest here.

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

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4 hours ago, terrestrial said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/237300830-2019-Preview-March

 

Yearly comparison 2018 vs 2019 in $ M; just the numbers, (gross is mostly gross!):

Jan: 961.5 vs 812.4 (-149.1M) Last year had Jumanji, TLJ and Greatest Showman

Feb: 1004.1 vs 621 (-383.1) Last year had BP (428.8M in Feb and even Fifty Shades 3 grossed 91.7 more than #1 of this year))

Mar: 895.6 vs 1000 (#1 was BP with 219M, CM should handily gross more in March than BP and WiT (82M) and maybe even I can only Imagine (52M) (=> 350M) and Us should also be pretty big too (at least bigger than 70M) and Dumbo just has the first weekend (and that should be nice too)

Apr: 1026.8 vs 1050 (2018 was IW (282M) and A Quiet Place (150m) and that was about it, this year should have Dumbo holdover, Shazam and a day more of Endgame)

May: 1040.1 vs 1150 (2018 was IW (350M) DP2 (231M) Solo (119.6M), this year should have Endgame (300m), Pika (250M) Aladdin (125M) and John Wick and opening day of Godzilla (#4 and 5 last year had 43.5 and 42m)

Jun: 1276.3 vs 1250 (2018 was I2 (425M) JW2 (246M) O8 (112M), this year won't be that strong at the top, but should have godzilla 150M, SLOP2 300M, TS4 200M)

Jul: 1204.8 vs 1300 (AM (186M), JW2 (154M), I2 (150M) and Ht3 (123M), this year should be so much stronger at the top, TLK (if many on here are right; 450M), SM3 (275M)

Aug: 859 vs 950 (MI6 (121m) and Meg (112M) Should have TLK and Hollywood as holdover that should both to more than MI6. And then it has Hobbs & Shaw, New Mutants, Artemis Fowl, Angry Birds and some other films, so it should do more

Sep: 671.5 vs 750(The Nun (109m), CRA (71M),and this year It 2 (200m), no idea about the rest, but should be good for an increase)

Oct: 833.4 vs 700 (Venom (190M), ASIB (153M), Hallowen (138M), I think Joker and the Blumhouse horror won't be enough to be above 2018)

Nov: 1049.5 vs 1050 (Grins (189.7M), BR (158.6M), FB2 (126M), Ralph II (99M), this year should be Frozen 2 (300, I guess the rest will be weaker, but should be enough to be even)

Dec: 1068.6 vs 1300 (AQM (199M), ITSV (108M) MPR (106M), this year should have Jumanji (275M) and IX (400M) (basically similar to 2017 but Jumanji Stronger and IX weaker) and Cats (100M) and Frozen 2 (125M) and the rest should be strong too)

 

So in total 11891.3 vs 11933, so maybe the first year above 12B.

This is honestly so hard.

So I'd say 2019 will win March, Apr, May, July, August, September, November and December.

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kitik Global Phenomenon

kitik

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3 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Nov: 1049.5 vs 1050 (Grins (189.7M), BR (158.6M), FB2 (126M), Ralph II (99M), this year should be Frozen 2 (300, I guess the rest will be weaker, but should be enough to be even)

Dec: 1068.6 vs 1300 (AQM (199M), ITSV (108M) MPR (106M), this year should have Jumanji (275M) and IX (400M) (basically similar to 2017 but Jumanji Stronger and IX weaker) and Cats (100M) and Frozen 2 (125M) and the rest should be strong too)

 

 

2019 might be trailing for the entire year, and then pull ahead in the final week, thanks to Star Wars and Jumanji. (And thanks to how crappy December 2018 was obviously.)

 

November is funny, because I was thinking "Frozen is going to be far bigger than anything from last November", but then I realized that Frozen is pretty much it, all the other big movies got pulled from November. The lack of heavy comp means one of them could break out though, right? Like Terminator or Sonic or Doctor Sleep?

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

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4 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

2019 might be trailing for the entire year, and then pull ahead in the final week, thanks to Star Wars and Jumanji. (And thanks to how crappy December 2018 was obviously.)

 

November is funny, because I was thinking "Frozen is going to be far bigger than anything from last November", but then I realized that Frozen is pretty much it, all the other big movies got pulled from November. The lack of heavy comp means one of them could break out though, right? Like Terminator or Sonic or Doctor Sleep?

Yeah, November could have been gigantic. I think at least one of them should break out, because there isn't much apart from Frozen.

If it roughly follows what I posted it would probably pull ahead around Christmas🤣

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

November is funny, because I was thinking "Frozen is going to be far bigger than anything from last November", but then I realized that Frozen is pretty much it, all the other big movies got pulled from November. The lack of heavy comp means one of them could break out though, right? Like Terminator or Sonic or Doctor Sleep?

Don't underestimate Sonic, a video-game movie in the post-Detective Pikachu era.

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

Don't underestimate Sonic, a video-game movie in the post-Detective Pikachu era.

I won't, but as of right now I'd say that November is mainly Frozen 2, that movie had an absolutely brilliant Teaser Trailer and Sonic is pretty much a blank page (the movie).

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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18 minutes ago, LeoC said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-avengers-endgame-tracking-for-titanic-265m-record-opening/

 

Long Range: Avengers: Endgame Tracking for Titanic $265M Record Opening

 

 

4/26/2019 Avengers: Endgame $265,000,000 NEW $695,000,000 NEW

That sounds about right. I've thought for awhile now that if Avengers: Endgame takes the opening weekend record from Avengers: Infinity War, it wouldn't be by much, given IW's record is enormous as it is. 

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