The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TimmyRiggins]

Shazam ! is going to be so profitable. A 60 M+ opening should be the minimum, then WOM will take care of the rest. 

[Litio]

Shazam is at least $70m cheaper than Dumbo. You should be worried about the performance of $170m movie. Dumbo under or over Divergent (OW, DOM, OS and WW)?

Edited March 29, 2019 by Litio

[lorddemaxus]

22 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Are you fucking kidding me man? You haven't even seen the film? And why are you even ASSUMING I didn't see it? I saw the film yesterday, god. You've been acting like a clown on other threads for a while, and now you bring this here? Go away, ugh

It seems like I have angered someone. No, I haven't seen the film. I am not going to pay for and watch a film just so to validate what I think of one scene (based on descriptions I have read, I know I won't like it regardless of how it is executed). I have no clue what the film is like or if I will like it or not. All I did say was that film wasn't original. You are the one who threw a tantrum.

 

And nah, I'll stay here. Maybe you need calm down a bit. Your private message to me seemed a bit too aggressive also. I'm usually close to the mark with my box office predictions and that's all that matters.

Edited March 29, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[MaxAggressor]

Edit: Wrong thread

Edited March 29, 2019 by MaxAggressor

[TalismanRing]

Just now, MaxAggressor said:

28/03/2019               Dumbo                     2.6                         ??                    ??               ??                ??

 

Looking at this list provided by @TalismanRing, the second worst comp gets Dumbo to a 66.3m OW.

 

If Dumbo follows CR which is the worst among the comp, it ends up with an opening weekend of 42.6m which should be the floor.  In any case, 60m for the OW doesn't look too far off based on previews.

A chief difference though may be the start times. I don't know which of these started at 5, 6 or 7pm.  Cinderella I know started at 7pm

 

Even so $50m is looking quite probable and $60m possible.  CR as the only summer release so even though it may be closest in tone and the age of material it's probably the poorest comp.

[TimmyRiggins]

2 hours ago, Litio said:

Shazam is at least $70m cheaper than Dumbo. You should be worried about the performance of $170m movie. Dumbo under or over Divergent (OW, DOM, OS and WW)?

I honestly assumed Dumbo was like 100 M before I saw it was 170 M today, I'm surprised. Not that the film looks cheap in any way, but I guess the extensive sets and obviously, Dumbo being full CG added up. I'm not sure if it'll profit from theatrical alone then, 400-500 M is the target I guess, then you got home video and merchandising for the rest.

Edited March 29, 2019 by TimmyRiggins

[dxmatrixdt]

 

Spoiler

I thought I ran that dilophosaurus over on my way out back in 09

 

650 - Lion King
350 - Spider-Man
240 - Hobbes & Shaw
280 - Toy Story 4
265 - Secret Pets 2
150 - Artemis Fowl
140 - Men in Black
120 - ...Hollywood
100 - New Mutants
 90 - Dora
 85 - Annabelle
 85 - Shaft
220 - Godzilla
200 - Aladdin
100 - Rocketman
 85 - Hellboy
 75 - La Llorona
 60 - Ma
680 - Avengers
450 - Pokemon
405 - Captain Marvel
205 - Shazam
190 - Us
150 - Dumbo
100 - Pet Semetary
 86 - Alita: Battle Angel
  6 - Captive State

[XXR vs XXR]

In preparation for Endgame, I was looking back at the numbers at my theater for Captain Marvel and Infinity War on previews Thursday. My last updates were at 6:30pm CST on Wednesday for Captain Marvel, and 8:30pm CST on Wednesday for Infinity War. I'll update at around the same time as I did for IW on the same day, as it's the closer comp. 

 

24 Screen Theater

 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%)
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%)  

 

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

In preparation for Endgame, I was looking back at the numbers at my theater for Captain Marvel and Infinity War on previews Thursday. My last updates were at 6:30pm CST on Wednesday for Captain Marvel, and 8:30pm CST on Wednesday for Infinity War. I'll update at around the same time as I did for IW on the same day, as it's the closer comp. 

 

24 Screen Theater

 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%)
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%)  

 

So my theater doesn't currently have any showtimes available, but the largest theater in my city (30 screens) has posted their initial slate of time frames, and it's staggering. Pre-sales will OPEN with 38(!!) showtimes. By my math, they're dedicating 23 of the 30 screens to it starting at 6pm! 

[Sheikh]

Aladdin
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 95 million (3-day) / $85 – $115 million (4-day)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-aladdin/

 

[Cappoedameron]

7 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

Aladdin
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 95 million (3-day) / $85 – $115 million (4-day)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-aladdin/

 

Geez that's kind of low for a Disney remake.

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Geez that's kind of low for a Disney remake.

its just a guess though  at this point

[Cappoedameron]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

its just a guess though  at this point

Like with DP this is a bottom of the barrel prediction, it can always go up. However Aladdin has gotten a lot of bad buzz.

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Geez that's kind of low for a Disney remake.

Not really... they’re predicting $ 230M DOM which is basically what almost everyone here is expecting and is good enough for $ 700 - 800M WW.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

Like with DP this is a bottom of the barrel prediction, it can always go up. However Aladdin has gotten a lot of bad buzz.

Bad buzz is gone, online the second trailer almost eradicate the complains about the movie, Disney made a really good job on saving this movie marketing after the disastrous spot (that one really have atrocious buzz).

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

By my math, they're dedicating 23 of the 30 screens to it starting at 6pm! 

Regular showings at 6pm or the Fan Event showings?

 

EDIT:::

 

Never mind, got the answer myself when I checked locally. 

 

 REGULAR SHOWINGS START AT 6PM | OPENING NIGHT FAN EVENT IS AT 5PM 

Edited March 30, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Regular showings at 6pm or the Fan Event showings?

 

EDIT:::

 

Never mind, got the answer myself when I checked locally.   REGULAR SHOWINGS START AT 6PM 

I guess that's one way to help with the 3 hour runtime  

 

[Porthos]

*checks Sacramento theaters*

 

WHELP!  Guess it's time to prep the spreadsheet!

 

(a few places don't have listings up yet, including the new theater in town that opens up the week prior to Endgame's release)

[Porthos]

Century Arden ain't fucking around.  Already have four showings 2am and later locally (2am 3D | 2am PLF 2D .| 2:05am, 2:20am 2D)

 

They only do that for the biggest of the biggest blockbusters.

 

EDiT:::  Interestingly enough, they're allowing four hours between screenings on their PLF screen (6pm, 10pm, 2am). Looking like 3:55 and 3:50 on their screen devoted to 3D (if it is the same auditorium).  So, let's say between 3 hours, 50 and 4 hours between screenings?

 

Checking other theaters, four hours between screenings seems to be more or less the median time.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Century Arden ain't fucking around.  Already have four showings 2am and later locally (2am 3D | 2am PLF 2D .| 2:05am, 2:20am 2D)

 

They only do that for the biggest of the biggest blockbusters.

Yep, the 30 screener has a 2am IMAX and 230am Dolby Prime showing already on the dock (all of the others are currently between 6pm and 11pm, so plenty of room to grow if needed)

I'm very curious if my theater can hit the 40 screening  (37 for IW).