The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Shazam is fine. Even if it crash and burn and only make $300M WW it'll still be profitable due to its budget. I guess the overperformance of recent Superhero movies like IW , AQM and CM skew the expectation a little bit. I have a feeling  Shazam will be a second victim because of that after AMATW where a movie makes good amount of money but labeled as a disappointment thanks to those expectations.

 

I think people will have more Venom/First Deadpool comparable in mind (lower budget/scale affair), that those giants spectacle, that said those are arguably skewed expectation even more by how ridiculous they went.

[Poseidon]

On 3/28/2019 at 4:27 AM, Barnack said:

I think a lot of it is kept there:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NBK-Sj8qK3GXl-iOdHYeD94YRNxWJ9HqZ9OKdGoSx2o/edit#gid=1246392742

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zNm6jmYaVu4doQWQR6psnxz6f2AMSuKVlfEe6TOnZ5k/edit#gid=1758182291

Could somebody please explain, how i get from these docs to TalismanRings daily presales?

 

Do I need to calculate it all by myself, taking data from the "Purchase History" Doc?

So if I want to know, what "Us" sold on Monday, do I need to take all they single day sales Thursday-Wednesday that were purchased on Monday or is there an easier way? 

Thaks in advance for any help with this issue. 
 

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Poseidon

[RealLyre]

so Shazam which got universal acclaim from critics is going to open to less than half (according to the data here even 70M might be too high for shazam) of Captain Marvel which received the weakest reception from critics for an MCU movie since AoU.

 

ofc this won't stop people from keep claiming that reviews affect the box office performance of movies significantly  

Edited April 1, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so Shazam which got universal acclaim from critics is going to open to less than half (according to the data here even 70M might be too high for shazam) of Captain Marvel which received the weakest reception from critics for an MCU movie since AoU.

 

ofc this won't stop people from keep claiming that reviews affect the box office performance of movies significantly  

or maybe the important thing is that both movies are good ? just saying dont start a fnaboy war again find another thread for that

[Djsoke]

2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

so Shazam which got universal acclaim from critics is going to open to less than half (according to the data here even 70M might be too high for shazam) of Captain Marvel which received the weakest reception from critics for an MCU movie since AoU.

 

ofc this won't stop people from keep claiming that reviews affect the box office performance of movies significantly  

I'm someone who believes critic influence is fading and fading quickly, but at the same time you make it sound like CM was reviewed poorly, which it wasn't. You also completely ignore relative expectations. CM has 78% RT with avg rating 6.8. Shazam has 93% with avg rating 7.6. That's a notable difference, but not a crazy difference. [For comparison, Dark Knight had 94% but avg rating of 8.6] The MCU is a machine for a reason, and CBM are a different beast in general. I agree with the sentiment but think the comparison is not apt

Edited April 1, 2019 by Djsoke

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so Shazam which got universal acclaim from critics is going to open to less than half (according to the data here even 70M might be too high for shazam) of Captain Marvel which received the weakest reception from critics for an MCU movie since AoU.

 

ofc this won't stop people from keep claiming that reviews affect the box office performance of movies significantly  

 

Or maybe because one movie has the name of its gigantic franchise literally in its title and the other has a title that makes most people go "Huh? What the hell is a Shazam? Can i eat it?"

 

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

ofc this won't stop people from keep claiming that reviews affect the box office performance of movies significantly 

 

How many people left in that team about Superheroes movies OW numbers ? (After Suicide Squad, Venom, Batman V Superman, etc...)

[Matthew]

So, today Shazam will make around 4000 in Fandango presales. 

 

Quite good I would say. 47% of Aquaman. Ane considering that was during holidays. 

 

45M+ weekend is still on card boys. 🎉🎉🎉

[PenguinHyphy]

5 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Welp, might as well post Shazam's results before its final release week.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Shazam!	859	848	1,031	1,124	841	817	1,798
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days

 

Past 7 Days:

11% of Captain Marvel (17.1M)

152% of Dumbo (68.4M)

115% of Dragon 3 (63.4M)

165% of Lego 2 (56.2M)

 

Day 18-5

119% of Dumbo (53.5M)

 

Day 23-5

12% of Captain Marvel (18.7M)

108% of Dragon 3 (59.6M)

181% of Lego 2 (61.8M)

 

 

So this is an interesting conundrum we have here. Out of all the 2019 comps I have available (I go up to Glass), should we use Captain Marvel, a superhero movie based on an established property, or use PG movies like Dumbo/Dragon/Lego, since Shazam is marketing itself as being more kid-friendly? In both cases, very different stories are being told. As always, it's best to wait until we get the results for pre-release Monday, so that we have more comps to base itself off of.

How is it comparing to Aquaman in pre sales? 

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

How is it comparing to Aquaman in pre sales? 

It will be possible to compare in a few hours:

10 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456

 

 

[PenguinHyphy]

3 hours ago, Matthew said:

I hope Shazam turns out to be walk up friendly like A quiet place ☺️☺️☺️

That appears to be unlikely since it is based upon a really well established property and has $3,300,000 dollars from Amazon screenings already. 

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, Matthew said:

45M+ weekend is still on card boys. 🎉🎉🎉

That's still not great.

WB marketing fucked up bad.

[nevermore]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

That's still not great.

WB marketing fucked up bad.

The marketing was fine. No different than Wonder Woman or Aquaman. 

Shazam is just largely unknown character that is releasing the same month as the biggest superhero movie ever. It was never going to make loads of money. The potential is in the sequel, not here. 

[john2000]

Just now, nevermore said:

The marketing was fine. No different than Wonder Woman or Aquaman. 

Shazam is just largely unknown character that is releasing the same month as the biggest superhero movie ever. It was never going to make loads of money. The potential is in the sequel, not here. 

are you talking about new mutants by biggest superhero movie ?

[cax16]

7 minutes ago, nevermore said:

The marketing was fine. No different than Wonder Woman or Aquaman. 

Shazam is just largely unknown character that is releasing the same month as the biggest superhero movie ever. It was never going to make loads of money. The potential is in the sequel, not here. 

Not not only was the marketing fine but they also did tons of preview screenings to build wom and released the embargo 2 weeks before the movie was coming out. This is just a matter of unfortunate timing with EG and CM being so hyped up. I’ve said many times now I’m just hoping it’s successful enough to get a sequel.  

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by cax16

[john2000]

1 minute ago, cax16 said:

Not not only was the marketing fine but they also did tons of preview screenings to build wom and released the embargo 2 weeks before the movie was coming out. This is just a matter of unfortunate timing with EG and CM being so hyped up. I’ve said many tines now I’m just hoping it’s successful enough to get a sequel.  

[nevermore]

4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Not not only was the marketing fine but they also did tons of preview screenings to build wom and released the embargo 2 weeks before the movie was coming out. This is just a matter of unfortunate timing with EG and CM being so hyped up. I’ve said many times now I’m just hoping it’s successful enough to get a sequel.  

 

The budget is small enough so that shouldn't be a problem. Plus I suspect it will do pretty good on home video.

[LordNox]

WB probably never saw great box office potential for Shazam. Which is why they gave Shazam a small enough budget so that they would profit even from a 400M box office run. Hopefully Shazam can also earn more than usual from a small superhero film in home video sells after its run as well. 

 

Probably smart in hindsight. Had they given Shazam the same budget as Captain Marvel it would probably have bombed for them at the box office. 

[Sheikh]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Could somebody please explain, how i get from these docs to TalismanRings daily presales?

 

Do I need to calculate it all by myself, taking data from the "Purchase History" Doc?

So if I want to know, what "Us" sold on Monday, do I need to take all they single day sales Thursday-Wednesday that were purchased on Monday or is there an easier way? 

Thaks in advance for any help with this issue. 
 

 

This is how I do it. You want Us, go to the week of release on the Fandango Purchase History document, go to sheet 20190318. Now scroll down to Us, and then add up all the sales made on the Monday, 2019-03-18, and don't forget to add all formats, 3D, IMAX, etc.

You can do this for Tues, Wed, Thurs, and then use them as comparisons to other movies.

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

or maybe the important thing is that both movies are good ? just saying dont start a fnaboy war again find another thread for that

not trying to start a fanboy war (and not sure how you got to that conclusion from my post) I was just pointing out how reviews and critical reception to superhero movies is becoming more and more irrelevant to the box office.