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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Total Seats      24225

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

So an extra 1060~ over the previous number? Considering you're numbers have already surpassed IW's pre-sales this is just getting obscene.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ledmonkey96 said:

So an extra 1060~ over the previous number? Considering you're numbers have already surpassed IW's pre-sales this is just getting obscene.

1041. But close enuf. :)

 

And quite a few theaters have yet to put up an expanded slate.  Think this might be close to Cinema West's final slate, though they might have room to squeeze in some more at a couple of the locations.  Depends on how many holdovers they plan on showing past 6pm.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted
Just now, Porthos said:

1041. But close enuf. :)

 

And quite a few theaters have yet to put up an expanded slate.  Think this might be close to Cinema West's final slate, though they might have room to squeeze in some more at a couple of the locations.  Depends on how many holdovers they plan on showing past 6pm.

Isn't there also a theater that supposed to open next week in your area?

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Total Seats      24225

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Just think, by 5pm on 4/25, your area could be looking at 30k seats....

 

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Isn't there also a theater that supposed to open next week in your area?

Was next week.  Got pushed back to the 22nd.

 

Pray for them if they actually did get Endgame. :sadno:

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Wtf.. Happened to Fandango. Not acceptable :winomg:

Deadline saw how good of a job @Porthos does and decided to pay Fandango to fuck shit up for him. Can’t have someone better predict Thursday previews than them....using data from just one city 

Edited by Nova
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Perfundle Cult Classic

Perfundle

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Porthos said:

So Fandango in its infinite wisdom looks to have stopped showing a difference between a purchased seat and an unavailable seat.  

 

Terrrrrrrific. :kitschjob:

 

(doing a quick seat map of Pika Pika and ran into this.  I hope to hell this isn't gonna happen when I do my Endgame seat check tonight. :kitschjob:)

Yeah, I noticed that at one of my theaters too, when 15 of the same seats were taken in each showing. So what exactly is an unavailable seat?

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted
Just now, Perfundle said:

Yeah, I noticed that at one of my theaters too, when 15 of the same seats were taken in each showing. So what exactly is an unavailable seat?

For my theater it's seats that are broken, reserved in case a seat breaks and we have to move people, or wheelchair only.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Yeah, I noticed that at one of my theaters too, when 15 of the same seats were taken in each showing. So what exactly is an unavailable seat?

 

5 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

For my theater it's seats that are broken, reserved in case a seat breaks and we have to move people, or wheelchair only.

Or if it's a split theater that has things like DBOX seating.  Fandango at least splits off DBOX and normal tickets into separate showings.  It'll list the DBOX seats as unavailable on the seat map of the 'normal' showing, and then list all of the other seats as 'unavailable' on DBOX showings.

 

I solve this by basically totally ignoring all DBOX seats. 👍

 

(that's because my counts grew out of a sellout count and I ignored things DBOX seating, and that carried over to when I slowly shifted to a seat chart model)

Edited by Porthos
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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Posted
1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

305M OW for EG and slightly better than IW weekend holds (-52% and -49% for weekend 2 and 3 respectively)  are enough for 75M so :rock:

 

I can’t see EG with anything under a 55% drop with a $300M OW but stranger things have happened.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)

Using comps of Shazam! (excluding the Fandango fan rush) and Incredibles 2 day 1, Pikachu is at $61M to near $100M OW.

 

 

I don’t think presales will matter to much as if there was a fan rush like MCU/Potter/Star Wars, it’d be apparent, so it may be more likely to perform as a family film or something like JWFK (remember how some said I2 2nd weekend over it). However, I do think we may have overestimated it a bit but breakout possibilities is still there as it is still early. Besides we all know that walkups will be so insane, it’ll break $65M previews/$200M OW with ease*.

 

 

*- means it’s a joke

 

 

Also mini Endgame comp before the entree tomorrow (sorry everyone), one showing of Endgame is more than the total for previews of a certain CBM at a certain time.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)

Updated...

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410        
2018-03-17 40 16,237        
2018-03-18 39 10,631        
2018-03-19 38 14,574        
2018-03-20 37 9,366        
2018-03-21 36 8,281        
2018-03-22 35 6,101        
2018-03-23 34 3,753        
2018-03-24 33 2,426        
2018-03-25 32 3,655        
2018-03-26 31 5,191        
2018-03-27 30 4,647        
2018-03-28 29 4,241        
2018-03-29 28 3,060        
2018-03-30 27 2,134        
2018-03-31 26 2,471        
2018-04-01 25 3,662        
2018-04-02 24 7,257        
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000   Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8  
2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,222 1.8  
2018-04-12 14 13,332        
2018-04-13 13 7,614        
2018-04-14 12 5,602        
2018-04-15 11 9,314        
2018-04-16 10 18,403        
2018-04-17 9 19,431        
2018-04-18 8 23,790        
2018-04-19 7 18,788        
2018-04-20 6 14,281        
2018-04-21 5 12,368        
2018-04-22 4 27,180        
2018-04-23 3 48,861        
2018-04-24 2 55,376        
2018-04-25 1 68,137        
2018-04-26 0 76,734        
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week  
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data
Edited by stfletch
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Did (what should have been) a quick check (if Fandango hadn't decided to personally fuck with me) of Pika Pika right now.  Juuuuuuust high enough that I think I might go ahead and do a daily seat report here after all.

 

Will probably recheck seats when I do a seat report tonight, but right now it sits at 148 tickets sold out of 5680 total available seats (some theaters haven't checked in yet).

 

That's low, yes.  But it's about 22% of FB2's first day and about 25% of JW2's first day. And I think it's probably pretty darn good for a family film 30 days out.  But I have zero real comps for this sort of film this far out, so don't read too much into those two numbers.


Still a couple of hours to go before I would finalize it.

 

===

 

Might just compile the daily numbers on my home sheet and report the results biweekly here until it picks up. If I did, it would be something like, say, Thursday and Monday. Shouldn't take to long with only 55 showings to check (47 of them reserved seating).

Edited by Porthos
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Did (what should have been) a quick check (if Fandango hadn't decided to personally fuck with me) of Pika Pika right now.  Juuuuuuust high enough that I think I might go ahead and do a daily seat report here after all.

 

Will probably recheck seats when I do a seat report tonight, but right now it sits at 148 tickets sold out of 5680 total available seats (some theaters haven't checked in yet).

 

That's low, yes.  But it's about 22% of FB2's first day and about 25% of JW2's first day. And I think it's probably pretty darn good for a family film 30 days out.  But I have zero real comps for this sort of film this far out, so don't read too much into those two numbers.


Still a couple of hours to go before I would finalize it.

 

===

 

Might just compile the daily numbers on my home sheet and report the results biweekly here until it picks up. If I did, it would be something like, say, Thursday and Monday. Shouldn't take to long with only 55 showings to check (47 of them reserved seating).

This may sound stupid but did you do anything for I2 or Finding Dory by any chance? I wasn’t sure how their sales were in the beginning. I just remember them being massive as we got closer to release lol I’m legit kicking myself for ignoring those two films now though. 

 

Im prob gonna track Pikachu just so I can have comps for SLOP2, Toy Story 4 and other family films. Of course if it doesn’t end up playing like a family movie I’d just save it for some other movie like it :lol: But with so many family movies having the potential to play event films this summer, I may need to start actually tracking them for future references :ph34r:

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Updated...

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410        
2018-03-17 40 16,237        
2018-03-18 39 10,631        
2018-03-19 38 14,574        
2018-03-20 37 9,366        
2018-03-21 36 8,281        
2018-03-22 35 6,101        
2018-03-23 34 3,753        
2018-03-24 33 2,426        
2018-03-25 32 3,655        
2018-03-26 31 5,191        
2018-03-27 30 4,647        
2018-03-28 29 4,241        
2018-03-29 28 3,060        
2018-03-30 27 2,134        
2018-03-31 26 2,471        
2018-04-01 25 3,662        
2018-04-02 24 7,257        
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000   Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8  
2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8 Based on 24 hour as at 10pm CST
2018-04-12 14 13,332        
2018-04-13 13 7,614        
2018-04-14 12 5,602        
2018-04-15 11 9,314        
2018-04-16 10 18,403        
2018-04-17 9 19,431        
2018-04-18 8 23,790        
2018-04-19 7 18,788        
2018-04-20 6 14,281        
2018-04-21 5 12,368        
2018-04-22 4 27,180        
2018-04-23 3 48,861        
2018-04-24 2 55,376        
2018-04-25 1 68,137        
2018-04-26 0 76,734        
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week  
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

IMO Day 2 shall be higher. Perhaps around 80-100k and Day 1 around 275-300k.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nova said:

This may sound stupid but did you do anything for I2 or Finding Dory by any chance? I wasn’t sure how their sales were in the beginning. I just remember them being massive as we got closer to release lol I’m legit kicking myself for ignoring those two films now though. 

 

Im prob gonna track Pikachu just so I can have comps for SLOP2, Toy Story 4 and other family films. Of course if it doesn’t end up playing like a family movie I’d just save it for some other movie like it :lol: But with so many family movies having the potential to play event films this summer, I may need to start actually tracking them for future references :ph34r:

I didn't track I2.  Wasn't exactly in a good frame of mind post-Solo.  Can't imagine why. ;)

 

Finding Dory was before my time when it came to detailed tracking.  Do recall it selling quite a bit on the overnight weekends a couple of weeks out over on the Pulse stream.  That was my first real sign that it was going to be big.

 

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Cappoedameron Box Office Gold

Cappoedameron

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

305M OW for EG and slightly better than IW weekend holds (-52% and -49% for weekend 2 and 3 respectively)  are enough for 75M so :rock:

 

Pika's opening weekend is gonna be at least 90M. More likely over 100M. So...you're ships gonna sink. ;)

Edited by Cappoedameron
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