The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

Avengers: Endgame -- 2nd Friday -- Current Status as of Thursday, May 2 @ 8pm CST

 

Dolby Prime

10:00am -- 33/205

2:00pm -- 34/205
6:00pm -- 145/205
10:15pm -- 107/205

 

 

IMAX 3D

3:30pm -- 38/151

 

 

IMAX 2D

7:30am -- 21/151

11:30am -- 29/151

7:30pm -- 114/151
11:30pm -- 35/151

 

 

Spanish Subtitles
10:30am -- 0/60
2:30pm -- 2/60
6:30pm -- 36/60
10:30pm -- 2/60 

 

 

Real 3D

7:25am -- 0/60

9:15am -- 0/44

9:30am -- 0/76

9:45am -- 0/44

10:45am -- 0/44

11:00am -- 4/125
1:30pm -- 3/76
3:00pm -- 2/125
5:45pm -- 33/76
7:00pm -- 64/125
9:55pm -- 10/76
11:00pm -- 0/125

11:45pm -- 0/76

11:50pm -- 0/44

12:30am -- 0/76
12:55am -- 0/76
1:00am -- 0/44

Digital

8:00am -- 15/147

8:15am -- 2/44

8:30am -- 0/147

8:45am -- 0/44

9:00am -- 10/147

10:15am -- 11/60

12:00pm -- 12/147
12:35pm -- 6/125
1:00pm -- 8/147
4:00pm -- 37/147
4:35pm -- 63/125
5:00pm -- 90/147
8:15pm -- 96/147
8:45pm -- 75/125
9:15pm -- 94/147

11:15pm -- 2/44

12:00am -- 0/44
12:15am -- 0/147

12:45am -- 0/125

12:50am -- 0/44
1:00am -- 0/76

 

 

TOTALS: 51 show times, 1233 tickets sold out of 5453 available (22.61%)

 

 

Captain Marvel -- $20.7m domestic previews total, 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%) -- final tracking on Wednesday, March 6 @ 6:30pm CST
Infinity War -- $39m domestic previews total, 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%) -- final tracking on Wednesday, April 25 @ 8:30pm CST

 

 

[Cap]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

and that Disney might not want it to pass Avatar b/c it would make Avatar less special.

Yeah, so special that Disney wouldn't want an extra 800M up from AIW in the bank.  🙄

[Legion Again]

On 5/1/2019 at 8:50 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 5/1/19 (End of 1st Wednesday)   

1	91.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.4%	The Curse of La Llorona
3	1.3%	Captain Marvel
4	0.7%	Breakthrough
5	0.5%	Shazam!   

Things moving closer back toward Monday as discount vanishes from the hours, but not fully there. Not going to make any concrete predictions here, but would not be surprised with CM back in the top 3. Maybe we get to see a new movie or two show up tomorrow.

 

17:00 Pacific 5/2/19 (End of Thurs)
1	91%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.3%	UglyDolls
3	1.3%	The Intruder
4	1.1%	Long Shot
5	1.1%	Captain Marvel    

A huge shakeup as all 3 new releases enter, pushing CM to 5th. AEG is actually at 94.5% of non-opener tickets, but we don’t know what portion they were taking up yesterday. This seems pretty compatible with the expected 9% drop to me.

[Mulder]

8 hours ago, Mulder said:

Once again woke up late today so just going to do morning and mid-day counts together, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-49, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-113 (+4), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-62 (+8), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Pikachu's proceeding nicely and holy fuck @ John Wick's increase

Final count for today, just Thursdays-

Aladdin-55 (+6), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-113 (+4), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-63 (+9), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

In total today Aladdin sold 6 tickets, PikaPika sold 4, and John Wick sold 9 which is imo insane. 

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	6631	7573	12.44%

 

Total Showings Added Today:               2

Total Seats Added Today:                  221

Total Seats Sold Today:                       75

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.4144x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 7 days before release.           

.3879x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 7 days before release.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-7 days:

JW2           122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |  9272/11263 seats left  | 17.68% sold]

Pika (JW)      66 tickets sold [0 sellouts/66 showings   | 5701/6526 seats left     | 12.64% sold]

FB2           123 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings   | 11165/13377 seats left | 16.54% sold] 

Pika (FBj)     66 tickets sold [0 sellouts/66 showings   |  6181/7039 seats left    | 12.19% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	8913	9403	5.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      56

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu (which is still in pre-sales).  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.8560x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after four days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

Day 4 of pre-sales:

Pika:    20  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/72 showings   |  7745/8009 seats left   |  3.30% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4937x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after four days of pre-sales.

.4882x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald four three days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 4 of pre-sales:

JW2                 87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   9155/10113 seats left  |  9.47% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    53 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   6956/7429 seats left    |  6.37% sold]

FB2                 88 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12400/13377 seats left  |  7.30% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    53 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   8020/8497 seats left    |  5.61% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

Been keeping an eye on Pika Pika on the hourly Fandango tracker and it is going up a bit post embargo drop:

 

2019-05-03 00:00:00     72    Pokémon Detective Pikachu (combined) (partial)

2019-05-02 23:00:00   108    Pokémon Detective Pikachu (combined) (up from 68 at partial)
2019-05-02 22:00:00     84    Pokémon Detective Pikachu (combined)
2019-05-02 21:00:00     55    Pokémon Detective Pikachu (combined)
2019-05-02 20:00:00     42    Pokémon Detective Pikachu (combined)
 

I'll be interested to see how does tomorrow as word of reviews/people who went to screens filters out.

 

[Perfundle]

Wow, Dolby screens are really popular, aren't they? Right now they make up 49% of Aladdin's tickets, and after less than 2 days of being put up the three Detective Pikachu Dolby screens have already sold 171.

 

Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 7 days to opening night

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats sold	Seats Left	Total Seats	Percent Sold
TOTALS	0	58	2331	7691	10022	23.26%

 

1 showing added

210 seats added

255 seats sold

 

Date				4/10	4/11	4/12	4/13
Tickets Sold				534	198	110	58
Date	4/14	4/15	4/16	4/17	4/18	4/19	4/20
Tickets Sold	28	45	59	63	36	33	28
Date	4/21	4/22	4/23	4/24	4/25	4/26	4/27
Tickets Sold	35	72	57	44	92	64	79
Date	4/28	4/29	4/30	5/1	5/2
Tickets Sold	91	126	85	139	255

 

Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 4th day of presales, 21 days to opening night

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats sold	Seats Left	Total Seats	Percent Sold
TOTALS	0	56	1165	11187	12352	9.43%

 

1 showing added

220 seats added

131 seats sold

 

Date		4/30	4/31	5/1	5/2
Tickets Sold		677	208	149	131

 

1.29x Detective Pikachu's first four days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24]

 

Edited May 5, 2019 by Perfundle

[Porthos]

BTW, in case people do care, FB2 did have some sneaks on it's opening Tue (6 shows locally out of a final total of 135).  But they were officially reported at part of the preview number which in turn was part of the opening day.

 

Also, when it comes to tracking at least, there was a massive storm that hit a good chunk of the East Coast on FB2's opening night.  Bad enough that theaters closed by 7pm local time in at least some places as reported by trackers in this thread.

 

I know that FB2 isn't a good comp.  And I also know that it over-performed in Sacramento.  But when it comes to keeping an eye on it as one of my comps for Pika Pika, just something to keep in mind.  Especially for Mon and Tue next week.

[Minnale101]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

BTW, in case people do care, FB2 did have some sneaks on it's opening Tue (6 shows locally out of a final total of 135).  But they were officially reported at part of the preview number which in turn was part of the opening day.

 

Also, when it comes to tracking at least, there was a massive storm that hit a good chunk of the East Coast on FB2's opening night.  Bad enough that theaters closed by 7pm local time in at least some places as reported by trackers in this thread.

 

I know that FB2 isn't a good comp.  And I also know that it over-performed in Sacramento.  But when it comes to keeping an eye on it as one of my comps for Pika Pika, just something to keep in mind.  Especially for Mon and Tue next week.

Thanks will look at closely.

 

sunday - Tuesday will decide where opening lands imo.

 

thursday will have normal walk ups for pre release 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Any sign of social media embargo boost for John Wick?

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Any sign of social media embargo boost for John Wick?

Yes. 

[Krissykins]

I could’ve sworn with the insane amount of constant marketing (online and offline) for Detective Pikachu, that it was opening today. 

 

WB must have a gigantic marketing spend on this one 

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I could’ve sworn with the insane amount of constant marketing (online and offline) for Detective Pikachu, that it was opening today. 

 

WB must have a gigantic marketing spend on this one 

Can confirm, have seen so much advertising for this.

 

It's literally on every bus here, all over facebook and twitter too. Glad to see they're actually trying hard to make it big

[Minnale101]

Tbh I don’t think the budget of movie is as big as people think it is. It’s just the cgi of Pokémon and movie shot on film. There’s only fight in movie 

 

warner Bros we’re probably so shocked that the first trailer blew as it did and expectations just grew and marketing budget was higher than most 

[Poseidon]

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/avengers-endgame-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203201333/

Tv Spendings seem totally in line with what you's expect for a May Tentpole. 

[Krissykins]

43 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/avengers-endgame-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203201333/

Tv Spendings seem totally in line with what you's expect for a May Tentpole. 

I think that article is US only. I’m in the UK. 

 

Its certainly got a blockbuster level worldwide P&A spend, thats for sure. 

[Cappoedameron]

When should we have updates on tracking?

Edited May 3, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[YM!]

North Shore is pissing me off. Pikachu has 11 on 4 pm Thursday and 16 or so 6:45 pm Thursday. Now it has 2 sold for the Thursday at 4, and 23 for the Thursday at 6:45 pm. Can anyone who tracked movies at the theater explain to me what’s happening?

[el sid]

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

When should we have updates on tracking?

I think in ca. one hour proboxoffice.com will update their Long Range Tracking.

Pulse 8:35-8:49 EST:

The Intruder: 111/15 – yesterday at that time it were 35/15; Escape Room had 54/15, Cold Pursuit 103/15, Greta 28/15, Serenity 43/15, all same day and time of the day. Quite good.
Long Shot: 88/15 – yesterday 26/15; Isn't It Romantic had 84/15 on Wednesday (its release day) at that time. Also ok.
Ugly Dolls: 69/15 – yesterday 20/15; The Lego Movie 2 had 300/15, Missing Link 36/15, Wonder Park 124/15, The Kid Who Would be King 66/15, all same day and time of the day.
El Chicano: 4/15 – yesterday 1/15

Also interesting today, which impact did the first reviews for Pokémon and reactions for John Wick 3 have?
Pika: 28/15 – yesterday 16/15
John Wick 3: 9/15 – yesterday 5/15
Aladdin: 13/15 – yesterday 10/15

And Pulse 11:05-11:19 EST (15 minutes too late but should not make a big difference):
 

Long Shot: 191/15 – yesterday at that time 42/15, look there, it overtook The Intruder; Isn't It Romantic had 167/15 on Wednesday at that time
The Intruder: 139/15 – yesterday 60/15; Escape Room had 103/15 but two hours earlier. Could have had a bigger increase from the first counting.
Ugly Dolls: 101/15 – yesterday 30/15; I have no comps here but that looks at least a bit better.
El Chicano: 8/15 – yesterday 2/15

Pika: 45/15 – yesterday 25/15
John Wick 3: 19/15 – yesterday 5/15
Aladdin: 15/15 – yesterday 5/15

Hard to say for me if the relatively good reviews (respectively reactions for John Wick 3) did have an impact but as long as both increase on a Friday... .

Edited May 3, 2019 by el sid