The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

I don't know what that is. Lol. Is it a Username?

Yes, The king of alt accounts. Honestly, everytime I see a user with 1 or 2 posts I automatically think "shivampa". No offense. Carry on.

[McClintonforThree]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its a forum troll who made several alt accounts in the past months.

I see. Well I'm not him. I am McClintonforThree and McClintonforThree means me! 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, McClintonforThree said:

I see. Well I'm not him. I am McClintonforThree and McClintonforThree means me! 

🤔

[McClintonforThree]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

🤔

My twitter handle is @AlexanderLoucks for proof if y'all still doubt my good intentions. lol

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, McClintonforThree said:

My twitter handle is @AlexanderLoucks for proof if y'all still doubt my good intentions. lol

Sorry about that, we've just had a lot of dupes from this person recently. I appreciate you actually going through this, if it were me I'd just leave after being harassed like you were.

[McClintonforThree]

Just now, Mulder said:

Sorry about that, we've just had a lot of dupes from this person recently. I appreciate you actually going through this, if it were me I'd just leave after being harassed like you were.

Nah, I love box office numbers too much. Also, it's the weeks leading up to Godzilla: King of the Monsters which I'm incredibly nervous/excited for. I'd also like for John Wick to overperform and Avengers to get over Avatar but mostly I'm just worried/enthusiastic about KOTM considering the first one got me into box office numbers. I mean the original How to Train Your Dragon got me interested, but Godzilla got me hooked.

[Mulder]

Just now, McClintonforThree said:

Nah, I love box office numbers too much. Also, it's the weeks leading up to Godzilla: King of the Monsters which I'm incredibly nervous/excited for. I'd also like for John Wick to overperform and Avengers to get over Avatar but mostly I'm just worried/enthusiastic about KOTM considering the first one got me into box office numbers. I mean the original How to Train Your Dragon got me interested, but Godzilla got me hooked.

You'd be happy to know rn it's looking good according to our trackers and analysts here then.

[McClintonforThree]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You'd be happy to know rn it's looking good according to our trackers and analysts here then.

I knew 50m was way too low. They lowballed the first one and Kong Skull Island by like 20m each. And I'm liking that the presales have been pretty good because monster movies have always been walkup friendly. Anything below 60m will be a disappointment for me, 60m to 80m I'll be happy about, and anything over 80m will have me dancing around in glee.

[Mulder]

Just now, McClintonforThree said:

I knew 50m was way too low. They lowballed the first one and Kong Skull Island by like 20m each. And I'm liking that the presales have been pretty good because monster movies have always been walkup friendly. Anything below 60m will be a disappointment for me, 60m to 80m I'll be happy about, and anything over 80m will have me dancing around in glee.

Rn it's looking at 60-65 million which is exactly where it needs to be.

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	9695	10718	9.54%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              6

Total Seats Added Today:                 721

Total Seats Sold Today:                      78

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.3918x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 9 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-9:

Pika:    76  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/64 showings   |  6617/7352 seats left   | 10.00% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5296x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 9 days before release.

.4791x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 9 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-9 days:

JW2               109 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9488/11263 seats left | 15.76% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    71 tickets sold [0 sellouts/74 showings   |   8434/9374 seats left   | 10.03% sold]

FB2               112 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings   | 11388/13377 seats left |  14.87% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    71 tickets sold [0 sellouts/74 showings   |   8859/9812 seats left   |   9.71% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	10705	11226	4.64%

 

Total Showings Added Today:             2

Total Seats Added Today:                  69

Total Seats Sold Today:                     51

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I will be adding the other May movies (Detective Pikachu and Aladdin) starting tomorrow as something as a comp for current movies, even though they are VERY different genres.

 

.4720x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after five day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 5 of Pre-sales:

JW2               97 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |  9155/10113 seats left   |   9.47% sold]

KotM (JW)      50 tickets sold [0 sellouts/82 showings   |  9670/10168 seats left   |   4.90% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

 

[Brainbug]

24 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

Nah, I love box office numbers too much. Also, it's the weeks leading up to Godzilla: King of the Monsters which I'm incredibly nervous/excited for. I'd also like for John Wick to overperform and Avengers to get over Avatar but mostly I'm just worried/enthusiastic about KOTM considering the first one got me into box office numbers. I mean the original How to Train Your Dragon got me interested, but Godzilla got me hooked.

 

Your a great addition to the forums already.

[Porthos]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:51 PM, Porthos said:

 

Partial expansion today.  Still pacing very well versus Pika.

 

Wick 3:  1347 tickets sold three days away (+189)

Pika:      1485 tickets sold three days away (+238)

 

Saw good sales all across the area.  PLFs entered the equation late in the day, so not sure how much they're helping.  Just strong sales across the board.

 

Interesting.  Nothing else.  Just... interesting. 

 

 

Expansion continued today.  Wick 3 continues to keep a very good pace with Pika Pika:

 

Wick 3:   1618 tickets sold two days away (+271)

Pika:       1785 tickets sold two days away (+300)

 

==

 

Really starting to think 5m+ in previews is now in play if the local situation is anything close to nationwide.  Especially since Wick 3 will have at least partial PLF dollars and no matinees.

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Expansion continued today.  Wick 3 continues to keep a very good pace with Pika Pika:

 

Wick 3:   1618 tickets sold two days away (+271)

Pika:       1785 tickets sold two days away (+300)

 

==

 

Really starting to think 5m+ in previews is now in play if the local situation is anything close to nationwide.  Especially since Wick 3 will have at least partial PLF dollars and no matinees.

[Nova]

I think if John Wick is going to hit $60M+ that it would need to get $5M+ in previews. John Wick 2 had an IM of 13.8 for the weekend. I'd imagine John Wick 3 would be a bit lower at 10-12x just because of how previews have increased. I could be wrong but that's where I'm thinking its IM will land. 

Edited May 15, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

I mean, am I wrong in thinking this?  It's been running neck and neck with Pikachu, hardly losing much of any pace. It'll have some, but not all, PLFs and it won't be saddled with matinee pricing.

 

Plus it's got a shit ton of buzz.

 

Now maybe we just love assassins locally.  But, even if I ignored all other factors, it's running at 90.64% of Pika Pika right now.  That comes out to 5.17m, without any adjustment.

 

Got to say, I think it's possible, IF the local trends are right.

 

Maybe I'll pull up some other comps and see what I get tomorrow (won't have the time tonight).

[Mulder]

Though honestly anything above 4 million previews wise would be impressive seeing how Wick 2 had 2 million in previews.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I mean, am I wrong in thinking this?  It's been running neck and neck with Pikachu, hardly losing much of any pace. It'll have some, but not all, PLFs and it won't be saddled with matinee pricing.

 

Plus it's got a shit ton of buzz.

 

Now maybe we just love assassins locally.  But, even if I ignored all other factors, it's running at 90.64% of Pika Pika right now.  That comes out to 5.17m, without any adjustment.

 

Got to say, I think it's possible, IF the local trends are right.

 

Maybe I'll pull up some other comps and see what I get tomorrow (won't have the time tonight).

Ah yeah I definitely think it's possible. John Wick's just been seeing some unanimous growth across the board.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I think if John Wick is going to hit $60M+ that it would need to get $5M+ in previews. John Wick 2 had an IM of 13.8 for the weekend. I'd imagine John Wick 3 would be a bit lower at 10-12x just because of how previews have increased. I could be wrong but that's where I'm thinking its IM will land. 

TalismanRing reckoned 9.3x to 11.2x earlier and that seems right to me.  5.36m at 11.2x gets it to 60m, 6.45 for 9.3x.

 

So that's the range we should be looking for if we want Wick 3 to hit 60, IMO.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

TalismanRing reckoned 9.3x to 11.2x earlier and that seems right to me.  5.36m at 11.2x gets it to 60m, 6.45 for 9.3x.

 

So that's the range we should be looking for if we want Wick 3 to hit 60, IMO.

I just need it above 54 million.