The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Biggestgeekever]

$5M-$6M does seem like a plausible outcome unless this is insanely presales heavy. And at least locally, theaters are giving Wick 3 more showtimes than Detective Pikachu even when that started 3 hour early, so with the PLF factor maybe this could go even higher?

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Love, Simon

863

1,256

2,907

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

The Darkest Minds

130

244

579

1,777

House With Clocks

897

1,469

3,607

8,074

Smallfoot

734

1,261

2,448

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

Goosebumps 2

300

631

1,733

3,615

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Dogs Way Home

259

623

1,516

3,257

Glass

3,106

3,978

6,478

17,810

Kid Who Would Be King

107

318

980

1,892

Five Feet Apart	613	1,053	2,225	4,118
Wonder Park	607	988	1,749	3,640

Us

10,742

13,597

27,634

39,514

After

681

1,098

1,904

3,436

Missing Link

167

299

634

1,483

John Wick 3	7,867	10,932
A Dog's Journey	340	565
The Sun is Also a Star	124	221

Somebody mentioned the MCU movies weren't the best comps for John Wick, and...yeah, I do kind of agree with that (also I'm lazy and want to do less comps), so I'm getting rid of those for now. With that said...

 

John Wick

Tuesday before release

38% of Deadpool 2 (47.5M)

78% of Us (55.7M)

69% of Solo (58.2M)

79% of Venom (63.5M)

113% of Aquaman (76.7M)

86% of Jurassic World 2 (126.8M)

 

Last 7 Days (9-3)

78% of Us (55.5M)

268% of Alita (76.5M using 3-Day, 99.8M using first 4 days)

234% of Glass (94.4M)

 

Days 18-3 (minus 14-12)

82% of Us (58.4M)

 

Days 39-3

90% of Us (64.4M)

 

Us seems like the best comp here, being R-rated thrillers with pre-established fanbases (Peele drove presales hard, and y'all know it). Using that, it's about 55M-65M. It would be legit cool to see each Wick double from its prior movies' opening, but I don't want to get my hopes up that high. However, I am hoping for 50M+.

 

Doggo

57% of Wonder Park (9.1M)

38% of House w/ Clock (10.2M)

91% of A Dog's Way Home (10.2M)

45% of Smallfoot (10.3M)

189% of Missing Link (11.2M)

180% of Kid Who Would Be King (12.9M)

89% of Goosebumps 2 (14.1M)

 

I was impressed with this movie's results yesterday, but this had a really soft jump from yesterday. Still above double digits, but it's just barely scraping by it now.

 

Sun is Star

20% of After (1.2M)

17% of Love, Simon (2.1M)

21% of Five Feet Apart (2.8M)

91% of Darkest Minds (5.3M)

 

LOL

[McClintonforThree]

If John Wick 3 gets more 54 million I'll faint.

[DAJK]

I legit try and wait for Eric’s comps before I go to bed each night. And if I miss them it’s the first thing I check each morning. Really appreciate the work you constantly put into this!!!

[That One Girl]

John Wick over 70M let's goooo

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I legit try and wait for Eric’s comps before I go to bed each night. And if I miss them it’s the first thing I check each morning. Really appreciate the work you constantly put into this!!!

 

oh yeah and I'll look at the other movies sometime in the morning/afternoon.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I legit try and wait for Eric’s comps before I go to bed each night. And if I miss them it’s the first thing I check each morning. Really appreciate the work you constantly put into this!!!

 

Its funny with time zones since i wake up and normally 1 hour later or so he posts them

[dakus]

Holy cow I haven't really glanced at Fandango in a few days, but man those Sun is also a Star numbers looks horrible. I guess there's been too many shitty teen romance movies the last few months or something that the audience is burned out.

Edited May 15, 2019 by dakus

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/7/2019 at 11:41 PM, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local - Regal - is set, and Pika does a little better here...so maybe there's some light to the upside...and Ugly Dolls could not protect its full screen here, either...coming for an "abnormal for a kid movie" 2nd weekend drop, methinks...

 

NEW

Det Pikachu (2.2 - 13 showings - 1 biggest screen, 1 average) - better than my Cinemark local - could move the weekend cap for my benchmark to $87.5M...but usually, those get 2 biggest screens

Poms (1 - 5 showings - below average screen)

The Hustle (1 - 5 showings - average screen)

 

RETURNING

Long Shot (1 - 5 showings)

The Intruder (1 - 5 showings)

Endgame (3.4 - 14 showings) - lost 1.6 screens

Ugly Dolls (.4 - TWO showings) - so it gets the 10am and 12 pm showings...then Det Pika gets the following one...and Endgame takes late night

Capt Marvel (1 - 5 showings) - keeps on ticking here

The Curse of LL/Breakthrough (.5 each - Breakthrough gets 2 early shows / LL gets 2 late ones)

 

GONE

Shazam, Little

 

 

2nd local - Regal - is up, and they took a long time to set:).  JW3 is looking like it can go big, b/c this theater also allocated 2 screens for this movie, and looking around my metro, pretty much all small and midsize theaters did - so capacity should not hold down this weekend's number (unless any of you were crazy enough to think it was going 3 digits...and then yes, it can't go THAT high:)...anyway, here's the set...

 

NEW

JW3 (2 - 11 showings - biggest and average screen)

A Dog's Journey (1 - 5 showings - average screen)

The Sun Is Also a Star (1 - 5 showings - average screen)

 

RETURNING

Pika (2 - 11 showings - 1 3d, 10 2d) - lost 2 showings

The Hustle (1 - 5 showings)

Long Shot (.8 - 4 showings) - lost 1 showing

Poms (.2 - 1 showing) - lost 4 showings...and this is gone next week:)

The Intruder (1 - 5 showings) - surprising to me, but it must be doing well, here

Endgame (1.75 - 7 showings) - big slash, it lost 1/2 its showings from last week

Capt Marvel (.75 - 3 showings) - surprised it held here, but it was cut pretty much everywhere else - I'd have thought they'd have given these 3 showings to Endgame, but this is gone next week, I think...

 

1/2 screen left to give the solid performers for the weekend...

 

GONE

The Curse of LL, Breakthrough, UglyDolls

Edited May 15, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

John Wick is taking over both Dolby and IMAX at my theater. Would’ve expected Edngame to keep IMAX

[kitik]

Wick is getting the PLFs at the theaters here too.

[Deep Wang]

Yup, Regal Marquee getting it in IMAX this weekend, as well as 4DX... 

 

I know I saw the first one in DBOX back when I was in Corpus and that was fun, but it was also free 😂not sure the extra stuff is worth it.

 

Or, I could see it both, back-to-back!

[Tinalera]

Saturday may 18 london ontario

 

John wick 

 

Silvercity

 

12 showings (4 avx 4avx dbox 4 standard)

 

Westfield

8 showings all standard

 

As of may 15

 

 

Think mr wick is going to be a popular man.

 

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Aladdin	1,725	2,022
	11 days	10 days
Pets 2 Early	312	294
	12 days	11 days
Godzilla	2,389	1,052
	18 days	17 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	64	52
	25 days	24 days
Dark Phoenix	1,976	685
	25 days	24 days
Spider-Man FFH	795	556
	50 days	49 days

 

Aladdin

Last 7 Days

51% of Incredibles 2 (92.6M)

277% of Lego 2 (94.5M)

188% of Dragon 3 (103.4M)

252% of Dumbo (115.9M)

230% of Shazam (123M)

 

Day 23-11 (minus 21-19)

180% of Shazam (96.2M)

354% of Lego 2 (121M)

 

Day 25-11

60% of Incredibles 2 (109.4M)

202% of Dragon 3 (111M)

 

Cumulative

41% of Incredibles 2 (75.9M)

173% of Dragon 3 (95M)

162% of Pikachu (88M)

 

Again, Aladdin's presales are so weird. This is a movie that, at least marketing-wise, has everything going against it. And yet, when looking at presales, it's vastly overperforming from tracking. Even if you want to argue "well, it's fanboy driven", which I won't discredit, Incredibles 2 was arguably just as, if not more fanboy driven than Aladdin will probably be, and almost all of those comps are strong too. Of course, this could just be pointing towards a 4-Day, which isn't as impressive, but still not bad all things considered.

 

Godzilla

Last 7 Days (23-17)

64% of Captain Marvel (98.2M)

 

Yesterday saw a bit of a drop (in ticket sales, not percentages), but it's still kicking and going strong.

 

Pets 2

Day 28-24

41% of Grinch (27.9M)

Last 7 Days (30-24)

25% of Dragon 3 (14M)

 

Again, still feel like this should be doing at least a wee bit better. Maybe doing something cumulative would be better, but...it's like a month's worth of presales. I ain't bothering with that.

 

Dark Phoenix

Last 7 Days (30-24)

34% of Captain Marvel (52.2M)

 

Like Godzilla, big drop from Monday to Tuesday, but taking out the initial first day leads to a jump in the comp either way. And yeah, it would be cool if this did manage to hit this # in the end, though we've still got a couple weeks to go.

 

Far From Home

Last 7 Days (55-49)

102% of Captain Marvel (156.3M)

 

Still basically at the same pace as CM. Cool I guess

[Alli]

13 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Aladdin	1,725	2,022
	11 days	10 days
Pets 2 Early	312	294
	12 days	11 days
Godzilla	2,389	1,052
	18 days	17 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	64	52
	25 days	24 days
Dark Phoenix	1,976	685
	25 days	24 days
Spider-Man FFH	795	556
	50 days	49 days

 

Aladdin

Last 7 Days

51% of Incredibles 2 (92.6M)

277% of Lego 2 (94.5M)

188% of Dragon 3 (103.4M)

252% of Dumbo (115.9M)

230% of Shazam (123M)

 

Day 23-11 (minus 21-19)

180% of Shazam (96.2M)

354% of Lego 2 (121M)

 

Day 25-11

60% of Incredibles 2 (109.4M)

202% of Dragon 3 (111M)

 

Cumulative

41% of Incredibles 2 (75.9M)

173% of Dragon 3 (95M)

162% of Pikachu (88M)

 

Again, Aladdin's presales are so weird. This is a movie that, at least marketing-wise, has everything going against it. And yet, when looking at presales, it's vastly overperforming from tracking. Even if you want to argue "well, it's fanboy driven", which I won't discredit, Incredibles 2 was arguably just as, if not more fanboy driven than Aladdin will probably be, and almost all of those comps are strong too. Of course, this could just be pointing towards a 4-Day, which isn't as impressive, but still not bad all things considered.

 

 

very good. The brand is too strong to underperform. Kids don't really care about the supposed quality.

[ScoobyDoo21]

Seems like what i am thinking. Aladdin is going to be fine. 100 ow is still at play and it might have a longshot at Pirate's 2007 record.

 

People are just as nostalgic towards Aladdin almost as much as Lion King. Even if it drops like a rock, it'll still should easily beat the low expectations some have put on it.

 

1 Billion though is a tougher question.

Edited May 15, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[filmlover]

Most people I know are excited for Aladdin. *shrug* I think as long as the reviews are at an acceptable level it should do very nicely over the 4-day weekend with $100M+ being in play. 

[Legion Again]

26 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Far From Home

Last 7 Days (55-49)

102% of Captain Marvel (156.3M)

Still don’t have a clue how to interpret FFH’s sales in terms of translating to the 6-day or 3-day 😅   

 

@stfletch, you’re like the Pulse archmagus, will we at some point be able to see a breakdown between midnights, true Tues, W, Th, F, S,S? If so, around when would that be?

[ScoobyDoo21]

I think it is just this place that is severly underestimating this film. The movie itself has alot of points in its favor: Nostalgia that Dumbo didn't have, memorial day, and it looks like it might be nice and colorful unlike dumbo.  If people like it more than critics then i can see it doing well. It isn't unheard of for audiences to embrace a film that isn't liked by critics.

 

Now the most worrying thing is the songs. So far the musical numbers aren't so great.

Edited May 15, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

I think it is just this place that is severly underestimating this film. The movie itself has alot of points in its favor: Nostalgia that Dumbo didn't have, memorial day, and it looks like it might be nice and colorful. If people like it more than critics then i can see it doing well.

 

Now the most worrying thing is the songs. So far the musical numbers aren't so great.

There should be nothing to worry about except they screwed it up just like Dumbo. Maybe not as screwed up, we shall see.