The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, AnDr3s said:

Regular and reverse? Nice.

[ThomasNicole]

I’ve seen a lot of people talking about how bad Aladdin is doing in the past few days... but honestly i found Deep Wang / Fandango / Pulse numbers all really solid.

 

This isn’t get good reviews, but i have doubts if people will care about it... based on the presales this seems like a $ 100M 4-day.

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I’ve seen a lot of people talking about how bad Aladdin is doing in the past few days... but honestly i found Deep Wang / Fandango / Pulse numbers all really solid.

 

This isn’t get good reviews, but i have doubts if people will care about it... based on the presales this seems like a $ 100M 4-day.

For a lot of folks, even $100M 4 day would be "bad" in their minds b/c they saw beating Pirates Memorial Day weekend record ($139.8M) as a formality when this project was announced...they never readjusted expectations after 1st preview drop...

 

It's why figuring out what people mean when they say "good/bad" matters...for many, "bad" is coming nowhere near the animated's adjusted figures...so, for many, "good" now might be the same number as the "bad" folks:)...

 

Edited May 15, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I’ve seen a lot of people talking about how bad Aladdin is doing in the past few days... but honestly i found Deep Wang / Fandango / Pulse numbers all really solid.

 

This isn’t get good reviews, but i have doubts if people will care about it... based on the presales this seems like a $ 100M 4-day.

I think the problem for me is the trendline against Pika Pika locally:

 

T-16: 1.4112x overall (That day: Aladdin: 47 Pika Pika 33)

T-15: 1.4608x overall (That day: Aladdin: 43 Pika Pika 13)

T-14: 1.4505x overall (That day: Aladdin: 21 Pika Pika 18)

T-13: 1.4828x overall (That day: Aladdin: 70 Pika Pika 36)

T-12: 1.4879x overall (That day: Aladdin: 46 Pika Pika 29)

T-11: 1.4579x overall (That day: Aladdin: 38 Pika Pika 38)

T-10: 1.4340x overall (That day: Aladdin: 44 Pika Pika 41)

T-9:   1.3918x overall (That day: Aladdin: 78 Pika Pika 76)

 

Since about a week ago, it had been in a consistent 1.45x +/- range.  But for the last three days, it's been more or less exactly matching Pikachu in local sales, which is dragging its percentage down.

 

If that continues, it's not a good sign for Aladdin.  Big if, of course.  Could still be a random blip.

[Mulder]

While Fandango is good there's just been too many reports in this thread beyond my own of a lot of theaters underperforming for Aladdin for me to write it off. Add that to the 60 million 3 day tracking and it's not a good sign imo. Wang's number also seems good but iirc wasn't that as much as Pikachu had?

[Biggestgeekever]

You also have to realize that a 2.2-2.1 multiplier is pretty much the standard for a big 4-day Memorial Day weekend opener: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/md.htm

 

Of the films that hit over $100M, the two exceptions to that were Thursday openers. And given the competition, a $100M opening is just not going to cut it if you want more than $220M for the domestic total. 

Edited May 15, 2019 by Biggestgeekever

[Rorschach]

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum Thursday Night Showings @ Davenport 53rd 18 + IMAX

 

2D

7:00 - 68/135

7:30 - 19/238

10:10 - 14/135

10:45 - 1/238

 

IMAX 2D

8:00 - 6/387

11:05 - 0/387

 

108/1,520 (7.11% of all seats sold)

 

My theater just added the two IMAX showings and the 7:30/10:45 2D showings yesterday so I'll have to check back tomorrow to see how those are doing but otherwise, it's sold fairly well with its opening showtime at 7.

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

You also have to realize that a 2.2-2.1 multiplier is pretty much the standard for a big 4-day Memorial Day weekend opener: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/md.htm

 

Of the films that hit over $100M, the two exceptions to that were Thursday openers. And given the competition, a $100M opening is just not going to cut it if you want more than $220M for the domestic total. 

220 would be lucky considering how Dumbo did. 220/600 at least isn't an epic flop it's just a disappointment.

[ThomasNicole]

37 minutes ago, Mulder said:

While Fandango is good there's just been too many reports in this thread beyond my own of a lot of theaters underperforming for Aladdin for me to write it off. Add that to the 60 million 3 day tracking and it's not a good sign imo. Wang's number also seems good but iirc wasn't that as much as Pikachu had?

Pikachu was way lower than Aladdin at the same point on Wang numbers.

 

And tracking is $ 80M 4-day, but deadline says it could do $ 100M and some experts are expecting that. I don’t expect a big hit to be honest, i always think OS numbers will save the movie and i still think that, but DOM doesn’t seems bad though, just average, basically Pirates 5 again.

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Pikachu was way lower than Aladdin at the same point on Wang numbers.

 

And tracking is $ 80M 4-day, but deadline says it could do $ 100M and some experts are expecting that. I don’t expect a big hit to be honest, i always think OS numbers will save the movie and i still think that, but DOM doesn’t seems bad though, just average, basically Pirates 5 again.

Mixed/Negative reviews could effect numbers as well just look at Dumbo. Which is just  a sad comparison because Aladdin is a very uplifting, exciting, vibrant film. But the LA remake just looks like it sucked everything that made the original film what it was.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

John Wick 3 really picking up steam. Endgame will drop less than Pikachu today. It is gaining against DP when compared to yesterday. 

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-14 14:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	25.453%	17951	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	20.750%	14634	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
3	20.642%	14558	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
4	04.187%	2953	The Hustle (2019)
5	03.265%	2303	Long Shot
6	02.779%	1960	The Intruder (2019)
7	02.680%	1890	Aladdin (2019)

Wick 3 passed Pika Pika in the last hour.  Now has its sights directly on EG:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-14 16:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	25.159%	17511	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	21.904%	15245	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	20.070%	13969	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	03.978%	2769	The Hustle (2019)
5	03.122%	2173	Long Shot
6	02.823%	1965	Fandango Early Access Rocketman
7	02.769%	1927	Aladdin (2019)
8	02.601%	1810	The Intruder (2019)
9	02.309%	1607	Avengers Endgame  (2019)

 

As I look at the pacing, it'll pass on the hour to hour for good during the overnight and catch up on the 24 hour tracker sometime tomorrow.

 

Since it isn't that far behind on the 24 hour tracker (3873 sets of tickets right now), it might not take very long for it to catch up on Thr.

 

And since I was typing, latest hour rolled on and off:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-14 17:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	25.098%	17487	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	22.534%	15700	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3	19.587%	13647	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	03.897%	2715	The Hustle (2019)
5	03.081%	2147	Long Shot
6	02.891%	2014	Fandango Early Access Rocketman
7	02.794%	1947	Aladdin (2019)
8	02.473%	1723	The Intruder (2019)
9	02.296%	1600	Avengers Endgame  (2019)

 

Wick 3 now 3387 sets of tickets behind. Approx 500 sliced off the lead.  So early Thr seems a distinct probability, if not sooner. 

 

 

[McClintonforThree]

16 hours ago, McClintonforThree said:

Awesome, I think I'll do the same. Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

John Wick - 237, 6 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 Regular)

Aladdin - 283, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 1 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 86, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 42, 7 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

 

Aladdin has one of the Dolby screens sold out which seems strange because the other screens and other theater in my area don't have anything near sold out. In fact, I think I'll do the other theater too.

Regency AMC

John Wick - 355, 11 screenings (2 Dolby, 9 Regular)

Aladdin - 151, 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 112, 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 41, 7 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

John Wick - 262 (+25), 6 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 Regular)

Aladdin - 110 (-173), 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 1 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

Godzilla KOTM - 86 (0), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 75 (+33), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Aladdin's sold out showing ended up being a glitch resulting in the sharp decline in tickets from last week. Also, I missed the fan event showings for Dark Phoenix and Alladin last week resulting in its noticeable uptick. Also, the Regency added 6 more screenings for John Wick.

Regency AMC

John Wick - 392 (+37), 17 screenings (2 Dolby, 15 Regular)

Aladdin - 161 (+10), 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 113 (+1), 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 87 (+46), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Regular and reverse? Nice.

Just noticed something on that.

 

That's the MovieTickets.ca Top Five.  I have no idea if that's the same as the MovieTickets.com Top Five. 

 

I suppose maybe someone with Twitter might want to let akvalley know his MT tracker is down again so we can compare and contrast and see if whatever he's getting and that link is the same.

 

Last time it was down, all the old values got retroactively put back in, so I just wonder if it was choking on those special characters or not.

 

Hopefully it's the same.  But if it really is Canadian Only theaters right now, that's not great, IMO.

 

EDIT:::  Weird.  MovieTickets.ca redirects to fandango.com.  So I suppose it is the ones being sold on MovieTickets.com and it's just an outdated page. Probably still should let akvalley know about his tracker though, since it's been over a week without updating.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/14/19 (End of Tues)

1	30.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	26.2%	Detective Pikachu
3	7.6%	The Hustle
4	6.5%	Maharshi
5	5.1%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum

The Return of the Maharshi. Pika up to over 85% of AEG, likely falling back to around Monday levels tomorrow. Fairly expected results for discount Tuesday.

17 PT 5/15/19 (End of Wed)

1	31%	Avengers: Endgame
2	23.4%	Detective Pikachu
3	16.5%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
4	4.9%	The Hustle
5	3.4%	Long Shot

 

Jurassic World 3 is now solidly in third place. Deadpool/Endgame ratio is 75%.    

 

Endgame share of non-Wick movies from 32.3% yesterday to 37.1% today, predictably dropping a bit softer than movies with a big Tues bounce.

[Legion Again]

Re: ca vs com, the web text says on MT.ca but the URL is still com: 

https://www.movietickets.com/box-office

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Re: ca vs com, the web text says on MT.ca but the URL is still com: 

https://www.movietickets.com/box-office

Yes, I know that.   I first noticed it when I was using that link about 20 minutes ago. 

 

So probably an outdated web splash info.  Still, would be nice to have akvalley's tracker back regardless. 

[filmlover]

My theater is having those early showings for both Booksmart on Friday and Rocketman on Saturday and so far the latter has almost completely sold out a medium sized auditorium while the former has sold only...4 seats...in one of the smallest auditoriums. It's gonna flop thanks to Annapurna's curse, isn't it? 

[AnDr3s]

4 hours ago, AnDr3s said:

[kitik]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

My theater is having those early showings for both Booksmart on Friday and Rocketman on Saturday and so far the latter has almost completely sold out a medium sized auditorium while the former has sold only...4 seats...in one of the smallest auditoriums. It's gonna flop thanks to Annapurna's curse, isn't it? 

 

Rocketman is going to be another big music-based hit.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

John Wick 3 has taken the lead.

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-14 20:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	24.902%	17113	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2	24.436%	16793	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	18.373%	12626	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	03.577%	2458	The Hustle (2019)
5	03.059%	2102	Fandango Early Access Rocketman
6	02.886%	1983	Aladdin (2019)
7	02.856%	1963	Long Shot
8	02.318%	1593	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
9	02.184%	1501	The Intruder (2019)
10	01.420%	976	Poms
11	01.361%	935	A Dogs Journey
12	00.998%	686	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)