The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[richtmancharles]

Aladdin will open more than G2. Not because it is a good movie but because Disney is very good in marketing nostalgia. Overall G2 will take the May crown.

Adding to this, Monster movies have always been walkup friendly.

[MCKillswitch123]

23 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

DJ - 50k

JW3 - 2.3m

 

A - 1.2m

 

KOTM - 600k

RM - 182k

 

DP - 186k

SLOP2 - 47k

 

FFH - 1.7m

I feel like the classic Woah gif is not good enough for that. Holy fucking crap, could this hit 60?

 

Also, @Alli pretty sure Godzilla's pre-sales went up on Friday only. And if anything, Disney's live-action remakes have had more fan rush than most monster movies. Even Dumbo was somewhat frontloaded. I'd presume Godzilla is the one that'll skew more on walk-ups than Aladdin, especially since KOTM is the one coming off of a disliked predecessor.

 

And for a movie that's two months away, FFH is doing really well. Maybe the same or below CM at the same point in time, but the market was wayyyyy emptier when CM's tickets went on sale.

Edited May 14, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[cdsacken]

23 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

DJ - 50k

JW3 - 2.3m

 

A - 1.2m

 

KOTM - 600k

RM - 182k

 

DP - 186k

SLOP2 - 47k

 

FFH - 1.7m

 

Much appreciated. Looks like JW3 is gonna crush it

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Alli said:

I'll try not to, but the movie has so many haters on the forum. I gotta retaliate

I get passion but try not to get overconsumed by it because too much passion leads to being an overzealous fanboy. I got a little that way over Pikachu. Sometimes it’s best to let it lie.

 

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Aladdin comes out next week. Godzilla comes out the week after. Aladdin has also had tickets on sale for longer. 

 

If anything Godzilla is showing me that it’s over performing when it comes to presales. 

Not to mention Godzilla, like most monster movie are way more walk up based than most blockbusters. And Aladdin has a strong female fanbase and very nostalgia based so presales should be bigger.

[cdsacken]

16 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Great for John Wick 3, also good for Aladdin, solid for KOTM.

 

Something in my gut tells me you’re going to be annoying about Aladdin these next few weeks.

Haha I'm fine with that if it does well. Majority of the board has predicted massive failure before reviews.

 

I hope for success but worry about failure myself as well. Just not a forgone conclusion.

Edited May 14, 2019 by cdsacken

[richtmancharles]

Aladdin will get mixed to negative reviews.

Watch this new clip yourself, I am literally shocked.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I will add to the people who think G2 may be more walkup-based than Aladdin. Beauty and the Beast was very presale-heavy, on the level of a CBM (its OW/PS ratio was the same as Guardians 2, which was a highly anticipated sequel). The nostalgia created by the 90s animated classics makes these remakes have a built-in fanbase in the same way a CBM/franchise movie does. And if the movie is good, it makes no sense to release the embargo this late (not like spoilers are gonna be a thing), so I think there's a high likelihood of poor reviews.

[Nova]

Yea I’d be very very surprised if Aladdin is more walk up based than Godzilla. Not sure if Godzilla will play like a mini Fallen Kingdom but I feel like that maybe the best comp for it and Fallen Kingdom wasn’t all that presale heavy. I don’t recall Kong Skull Island being that presale heavy either but I’d have to double check. 

 

Aladdin I feel like will play like a mini BATB and I don’t see any reason for me to think otherwise at this point. They’re both live action remakes. Both target similar demographics. 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Nova

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I will add to the people who think G2 may be more walkup-based than Aladdin. Beauty and the Beast was very presale-heavy, on the level of a CBM (its OW/PS ratio was the same as Guardians 2, which was a highly anticipated sequel). The nostalgia created by the 90s animated classics makes these remakes have a built-in fanbase in the same way a CBM/franchise movie does. And if the movie is good, it makes no sense to release the embargo this late (not like spoilers are gonna be a thing), so I think there's a high likelihood of poor reviews.

For me the important thing now is whether we're looking at average reviews (~50%) or absolute shit reviews (<15%). The latter will cause it to have disastrous legs, the former will at least be some saving grace. 

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, richtmancharles said:

Aladdin will get mixed to negative reviews.

Watch this new clip yourself, I am literally shocked.
 

 

Just a slice of a scene but it oddly looks more fake and stage bound than when I saw it on Broadway (w/o the live performance energy to compensate).   I'm not sure how Ritchie managed that...

[Cap]

Currently, Aladdin and Godzilla are both performing the same at BOTH Lincoln Square (one of the biggest theaters in NA) and Cinemagic (my little no-name brand theater).  Unless Aladdin gets a crazy holiday boost and beats Disney's curse, it will give us a good idea of where Godzilla will land.  IMO.  

 

And agreed that both are gonna ride or die based off of WOM/reviews.  Aladdin needs to deliver on the songs.  Godzilla needs to deliver on the monster fights.  Word gets out they don't, sad days ahead.  

[richtmancharles]

Just a slice of a scene but it oddly looks more fake and stage bound than when I saw it on Broadway (w/o the live performance energy to compensate).   I'm not sure how Ritchie managed that...

Yeah, I don't understand who hired Guy Ritchie for Alaadin.

All the live action movies from Disney (except Alice) atleast had something going for them. Even Dumbo has some good elements.

Alaadin looks fake. I will watch it anyways because of curiosity.

[Legion Again]

CM was at 1.8 on Jan 10 after starting sales Jan 7, so definitely outpacing FFH a bit for now.    

 

That said, I feel like there’s a high chance that opening in a 6-day window of summer skews how much urgency people feel toward prepurchasing.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

CM was at 1.8 on Jan 10 after starting sales Jan 7, so definitely outpacing FFH a bit for now.    

 

That said, I feel like there’s a high chance that opening in a 6-day window of summer skews how much urgency people feel toward prepurchasing.

Also to add to that, when CM released tickets there was very few other movies people were spending money on.

 

FFH has to deal with people buying tickets for Pika, EG, KOTM, Aladdin, heck even Wick by the looks of it. All of which were much bigger.

 

This doesn't mean people aren't going to go watch FFH, simply that people aren't going to prebuy tickets to the 6th next movie they see.

[That One Girl]

186k for Dark Phoenix after one day is pretty good, no?

[richtmancharles]

186k for Dark Phoenix after one day is pretty good, no?

It's pretty bad imo. Presales will slow down considerably. Will it even reach 3M before release?

[SoSaysI]

Do we know where Dumbo was at in presales at around the same time  as Aladdin?  That will probably be the best indicator of where Aladdin is heading next week.

[MrPink]

I'm operating under the assumption that hitting 50m OW for Dark Phoenix would be a modest victory so I think 186k is not bad in terms of achieving that goal.

Edited May 14, 2019 by MrPink

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

I think its good for DP but keep in mind it could've been inflated by Xmen day anniversary. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Stewart said:

For me the important thing now is whether we're looking at average reviews (~50%) or absolute shit reviews (<15%). The latter will cause it to have disastrous legs, the former will at least be some saving grace. 

I expect the former. The movie doesn't look great but 15% is Transformers 5 level