The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I'm operating under the assumption that hitting 50m OW for Dark Phoenix would be a modest victory so I think 186k is not bad in terms of achieving that goal.

 

I help contributed to that 186k.  #XMenDay (it’s not X-Men Day anymore but when you make up a fake holiday why can it not always be X-Men Day?)

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 5/6/2019 at 5:58 PM, Deep Wang said:

DP - 1.5m

 

JW3 - 1.2m

 

A - 722k

 

RM - 97k

 

SLOP2 - 26k

 

SM:FFH - 550k

 

 

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

DJ - 50k

JW3 - 2.3m

 

A - 1.2m

 

KOTM - 600k

RM - 182k

 

DP - 186k

SLOP2 - 47k

 

FFH - 1.7m

 

So about a week apart from one another, this is where we're at. That is obviously fantastic for Wick. Doubling results is typical, but 2.3M is still 2.3M. I feel like Aladdin could have done better though. Far From Home also saw a huge boost, but that's probably due to the top results being only a few hours of the first day of presales.

[Boxofficerules]

What was Detective Pikachu at this time last week?

[keysersoze123]

Isn’t Spidey already behind Cap Marvel. Let us wait and see how the trend goes. But if PS ends below CM then it may not open as big as what I had hoped(200m+ for 6 days).

Fantastic for JW3. Since there are 3 more days it should double this amount by release time? Both JW3 and dark phoenix are benefiting from Tmobile/Atom $4 ticket deals.

Too early to make a call on Zilla or Aladdin. It’s neither good or bad.

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Movie/Date

Monday

Aladdin	1,725
	11 days
Pets 2 Early	312
	12 days
Godzilla	2,389
	18 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	64
	25 days
Dark Phoenix	1,976
	25 days
Spider-Man FFH	795
	50 days

 

Okay...

 

Aladdin

Last 7 Days (17-11)

50% of Incredibles 2 (91.6M)

253% of Lego 2 (86.4M)

173% of Dragon 3 (95M)

202% of Dumbo (93.1M)

228% of Shazam (122.1M)

 

Days 23-11 (minus 21-19)

334% of Lego 2 (114.2M)

168% of Shazam (90.1M)

 

Days 25-11 (minus 21-19)

61% of Incredibles 2 (111.8M)

194% of Dragon 3 (106.8M)

 

Cumulative (minus 21-19)

39% of Incredibles 2 (72M)

162% of Dragon 3 (89.1M)

140% of Detective Pikachu (76M) (I also excluded 14-12)

 

It's such a weird movie, this Aladdin. There are plenty of people mentioning soft presales at their theater, but when it comes to Pulse, it's doing solid business. I don't know if it's just those specific theaters underperforming, or the 4-Day weekend inflating things, or what. Guess we'll wait and see.

 

Godzilla

Last 7 Days (24-18)

62% of Captain Marvel (94.6M)

 

This is the only thing I really have at the moment (don't have Fallen Kingdom data), but either way, yesterday was incredible. It should come down to earth a bit due to "first few days of presales hype", but this is doing solid stuff.

 

Pets 2

Day 28-25

43% of The Grinch (29.4M)

 

Last 7 Days (31-25)

25% of Dragon 3 (14M)

 

Even ignoring the Fandango presales, or being a family movie, or being walk-up driven...this should be doing a lot better at this point, and I'm not seeing much progress. Maybe having presales up so early is the culprit? I dunno.

 

Dark Phoenix

Last 7 Days (31-25)

24% of Captain Marvel (36.3M)

 

Like Godzilla, this is the only thing I have to work off of at the moment (don't have Deadpool 2 data), but unlike Godzilla, I don't think this is as impressive, especially since this was the "official" day of pre-sales, and it had a huge promotional blitz with #XMenDay. But hey, it's still early, and we've got a couple weeks to go.

[cdsacken]

Porthos you prediction for Aladdin looks good . It won't do gangbusters but it won't flop either. Pikachu type numbers (low end of it's range looking inflated if you include Monday)

[Mulder]

Damn great number for KoTM considering it’s genre and only being up for presales for 4 days.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Godzilla

Last 7 Days (24-18)

62% of Captain Marvel (94.6M)

 

This is the only thing I really have at the moment (don't have Fallen Kingdom data), but either way, yesterday was incredible

I noticed late last night that on the rolling tracker if you combined both entries for it, it would have been something like sixth or seventh for the day.  Now that makes that strong day I saw locally much more believeable.

 

*checks*

 

Current rolling 24:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-13 13:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	27.400%	18432	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	23.721%	15957	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
3	13.737%	9241	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
4	04.437%	2985	The Hustle (2019)
5	03.290%	2213	Long Shot
6	02.878%	1936	The Intruder (2019)
7	02.582%	1737	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
8	02.407%	1619	Aladdin (2019)
9	02.248%	1512	Poms
10	01.867%	1256	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
11	01.782%	1199	Dark Phoenix
12	01.310%	881	Fandango Early Access Rocketman
13	01.050%	706	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
14	00.999%	672	Tolkien
15	00.923%	621	Captain Marvel (2019)

 

1256 + 706 = 1964.  Just ahead of The Intruder, which is more or less what I recall from last night.  That puts it solidly at number 6 on the rolling tracker.

 

That's... that's pretty good, IMO.

 

EDIT::: Aladdin pops in at #8, BTW, at a combined 1934, practically tied with The Intruder.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Alli said:

I'll try not to, but the movie has so many haters on the forum. I gotta retaliate

No, you really don't need to retaliate.  That sort of Fandom War stuff is irritating in most threads, but especially irksome in this one.

 

It's annoying when a film you love/stanning for is getting laughed at, I get it.  Believe me I GET IT.  But, like, we have a Fandom War thread for a reason.  

 

If you think a post is over the line in mocking a movie, just report it. Or NIRD it.  Whatever. But please don't escalate things in here, thanks.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Early numbers from BO.com is calling for 200m+ 6 day for Spidey.  I think actual industry tracking numbers will come in 3 weeks before release when we will articles from the trade.

In the good old days we used to get Jeffrey Wells post raw tracking information like demographics and Definite Interest/First Choice numbers weekly. We sadly don’t have that information any more. It would have been great to see how Endgame, Spidey and other movies are doing.

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-89 (+2), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-86 (+5), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-142 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-41 (+10), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Phoenix starts off...decent. It outsold Aladdin but didn't outsell KoTM nor even come within ten tickets range of it. In general today seemed kind of slow honestly besides for Phoenix. Aladdin's continuing along decently which it needed to but Wick and KoTM slowed down a lot today for some reason. In total today Dark Phoenix sold 41 tickets, KoTM sold 2, Wick sold 6, and Aladdin sold 5.

 

In comparison to KoTM and Aladdin's first days-

Godzilla: KoTM-56

Dark Phoenix-41

Aladdin-26

 

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-95 (+6), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-90 (+4), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-142, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-40 (-1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Kind of wish I was seeing more action from John Wick but hopefully that'll come later. 

[Mulder]

Btw if KoTM crosses 100 today that'll be the fastest I've seen 100 tickets crossed from my theater since Endgame.

Edited May 14, 2019 by Mulder

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Isn’t Spidey already behind Cap Marvel. Let us wait and see how the trend goes. But if PS ends below CM then it may not open as big as what I had hoped(200m+ for 6 days).

Fantastic for JW3. Since there are 3 more days it should double this amount by release time? Both JW3 and dark phoenix are benefiting from Tmobile/Atom $4 ticket deals.

Too early to make a call on Zilla or Aladdin. It’s neither good or bad.

 

CM skewed more pre-sale heavy compared to o/w than other recent MCU.  I gathered b/c it skewed more female.

 

Similarly we were told SM:HC was selling about the same as WW in pre-sales until the last couple of days and wound up doing about 50% more in previews and 13.3% higher o/w

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Mulder]

Also with FFH it was nearly 2 months away from coming out when it's presales started. It doing that much in advance imo is impressive.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

CM skewed more pre-sale heavy compare to o/w than usual.  I gathered b/c it skewed more female.

 

Similarly we were told SM:HC was selling about the same as WW in pre-sales until the last couple of days and wound up doing about 50% more in previews and 13.3% higher o/w

Also as has been mentioned CM's early presales were benefited by its being the first big blockbuster of the year

[richtmancharles]

From what I gather, It will quite a meltdown when FFH do not pass CM.

OW will be difficult to judge due to 6 days.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

CM skewed more pre-sale heavy compared to o/w than other recent MCU.  I gathered b/c it skewed more female.

 

Similarly we were told SM:HC was selling about the same as WW in pre-sales until the last couple of days and wound up doing about 50% more in previews and 13.3% higher o/w

 

That makes perfect sense that the 1st female MCU movie would be more PS heavy. for the PS the 153.4m was not that high. If I am not wrong it had higher PS than Civil War and Beauty and the Beast.

 

Also we have 6 weeks plus to go to release and so better to take a stock like a week before release.

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That makes perfect sense that the 1st female MCU movie would be more PS heavy. for the PS the 153.4m was not that high. If I am not wrong it had higher PS than Civil War and Beauty and the Beast.

 

Also we have 6 weeks plus to go to release and so better to take a stock like a week before release.

Curious to compare pre end game for a linked movie to post end game hype. They won't equal each other but I'm not sure which will benefit more to be honest.

Edited May 14, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, richtmancharles said:

From what I gather, It will quite a meltdown when FFH do not pass CM.

OW will be difficult to judge due to 6 days.

Didn't you talk about others being too confident? Check the recent trailer reviews and reception for FFH.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Curious to compare pre end game for a linked movie to post end game hype. They won't equal each other but I'm not sure which will benefit more to be honest.

We have to see which characters get the biggest boost from Endgame. Since we cannot discuss anything that happened to Endgame in this thread, I guess spoiler thread is the only place.

 

BTW I still don’t know who has not yet seen Endgame. Everyone I know offline and online who would potentially see this movies have seen it.