The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The JK:FK to KotM thing might just be a year-to-year rise in pre-sale tickets.  Seeing any comps in the 5's though ain't great news, especially with a different 2018 movie.

A big factor was that movie opened in the heart of summer, while for KOTM many kids are still in school. Also dinosaurs are just much more popular for casual audiences/walkups than Godzilla. Tbh PR2 had a 12x and Kong Skull Island had a 16.5x (I think) internal multiplier, and I'm not sure if 4pm starts are going to affect this that much. I think 60m would still be in play with a number in the 5s.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Menor

[Moose]

Well, this is all very..... depressing.

[Cookson]

Welp let’s hope the multiplier off of the previews end up being good. Not expecting Kong’s multiplier(that would be crazy) but something decent.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Even with the reactions I've seen being pretty mixed, I don't think this needs great WOM for say a 12x multiplier. It just needs better WOM than G2014, which didn't have very good WOM.

[McClintonforThree]

Can anyone give me some good news about KOTM? This constant assault of bad news is really killing my vibe man. I've never been so personally invested in a movie's box office as much as this one and I'm starting to get seriously depressed.

[Minnale101]

Just now, McClintonforThree said:

Can anyone give me some good news about KOTM? This constant assault of bad news is really killing my vibe man. I've never been so personally invested in a movie's box office as much as this one and I'm starting to get seriously depressed.

Godzilla vs kong will still be released that’s something to look forward 

 

some things life you have no control over. Can’t stress about it. It’s outta you’re hands

 

watch the movie. If you like then awesome but it’s hard to make up good news when it doesn’t exist 

 

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

Can anyone give me some good news about KOTM? This constant assault of bad news is really killing my vibe man. I've never been so personally invested in a movie's box office as much as this one and I'm starting to get seriously depressed.

 

The good news is that its Thursday. A lot of things can happen over the weekend, both negative and positive.

[Biggestgeekever]

 

That'd be the lowest theater count for an X-men film since the original, though it could still edge by Deadpool's 3,588. That was of course R-rated, and we've seen theater counts it general rise over the last couple years, so this is a pretty big sign exhibitors aren't expecting major business.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

That'd be the lowest theater count for an X-men film since the original, though it could still edge by Deadpool's 3,588. That was of course R-rated, and we've seen theater counts it general rise over the last couple years, so this is a pretty big sign exhibitors aren't expecting major business.

Apocalypse got 4150 theaters, this will rise a bit but it won't be anywhere near that. Very bad.

[XXR & Friends]

Godzilla: King of the Monsters -- Previews Tracking -- 5:30pm CST / Thursday, May 30th -- AMC Willowbrook 24

 

 

11 show times: 426 tickets sold out of 1381 available (30.85%)

 

Comparison at Same Day/Time: Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold, Detective Pikachu - 280 tickets sold 

[cdsacken]

Damn wrong thread fail

Edited May 30, 2019 by cdsacken

[Menor the Destroyer]

Now that 5pm numbers are in I can directly comp the FSS numbers with Aladdin at least and...this is just not great. All three days are half of Aladdin at the same point despite the preview sales being almost equal. I was optimistic in an above post but this is just looking bad.

[keysersoze123]

27 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

Can anyone give me some good news about KOTM? This constant assault of bad news is really killing my vibe man. I've never been so personally invested in a movie's box office as much as this one and I'm starting to get seriously depressed.

I am looking at AMC Metreon at SF one of the best iMAX screens stateside and 4pM show is like 80-85% sold out. 7pm is like 70% sold out and even 10PM is 50%+ sold out. So it selling out lots of expensive $22 imax tickets. So average ticket price for Zilla would be way higher than say Pikachu.

 

AMC loews lincoln sq is also doing great in imax. 715pm almost sol out.

Edited May 30, 2019 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

I am thinking after all the doom from everyone including the Musketeer :-), Zilla previews will surprise on the upside. Thursday PS is not the issue. Its rest of the weekend that is looking weak. let us see what Post Trak is saying as well.

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:20pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	12885	15763	18.26%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day:       4

Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day:          280

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:             492

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I also have comps with the Aladdin and Detective Pikachu as something as a compare/contrast with current May movies.  They may not be as good comps, being in different genres. I have also added at the last moment comps for Venom and Ant-Man and the Wasp as they were walkup heavy.

 

Unadjusted Comps

0.9296x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of tracking.

0.7379x as many tickets sold as Aladdin at stop of tracking.

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

Aladdin: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9953	13853	28.15%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             809

 

NOTE:::  Since I stopped Aladdin tracking 90 minutes later due to it having 6pm previews (instead of 4pm), I have a 3:30 - 4:00 comp  for a pure like-for-like comparison:

 

Aladdin [3:30pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	10297	13853	25.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:         465

 

Aladdin Time-Based Comp

.8093x as many tickets sold as Aladdin at 4pm.

 

Adjusted Comps

.4181x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

.5655x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp at stop of tracking.

.5927x as many tickets sold as Venom at stop of tracking.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

More Detailed Final Comps:

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	6515	11120	41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

KotM (JW)*: [3:20pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	11457	14061	18.52%

* KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom, Solo, and AM&tW

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:      396

 

==========

 

Venom: [4:15pm - 4:50pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	8736	13229	33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

 

KotM (V)*: [3:20pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	12057	14720	18.09%

KotM (V) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:      419

 

=====

 

Thoughts in a bit, especially taking into account the difference in stop of tracking.

[cdsacken]

So sticking with 5.75-6.75?

[keysersoze123]

Dont forget Zilla has all Imax/and most of PLF. so Avg ticket prices would be way higher than Pikachu.

[Yandereprime101189]

You know, on the off chance KOTM fails, what's going to happen with Kong vs Godzilla.

 

They're gonna have to release that, right? Or will they sell it to Netflix/Put on its own streaming service?

[Eric the Minion]

Just now, Yandereprime101189 said:

You know, on the off chance KOTM fails, what's going to happen with Kong vs Godzilla.

 

They're gonna have to release that, right? Or will they sell it to Netflix/Put on its own streaming service?

lmao it's going to theaters no matter what

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

You know, on the off chance KOTM fails, what's going to happen with Kong vs Godzilla.

 

They're gonna have to release that, right? Or will they sell it to Netflix/Put on its own streaming service?

I think that has way more upside than this. But it would be good to get early reactions and fix the script and reshoot part of the movie if required. They can move it to December if required.