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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Once Upon a Time in Hollywood pre-sale tickets are now available for purchase.  At least at a couple of my local Regals they are.

 

Confirming the earlier report from @Ryan Reynolds about 4pm previews.

Edited by Porthos
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Toronto ontario canada 
The Lion King
July 18


Scotiabank Theatre

 

IMAX
630 137/416(+25)
930 97/416(+19)

 

 

Queensway 

 

VIP
700 117/136(+6)
1000 91/136(+2)

 

AVX
630 81/377(+9)
930 18/377(+6)

 

Recliner
615 31/279(+2)
95 31/279(+10)

 

 

Yonge and dundas

 

VIP
650 65/77(+0)
950. 56/77(+7)

 

ULTRAAVX
750 58/377(+2)
1020 18/377(+8)

 

4dx
720 49/82(+8)
920 14/82(+0)


Recliner
700 62/246(+12)
815 41/227(+11)
1000 4/246(+0)

 

Still moving but slowing. IllDont get me wrong it will do very well in previews, but the sense i get from my peers theres a lot of wait and see. And again money comes up, as one said "ive seen aqua, cap marvel, toy story,endgame. I want to see more but its too much on the pocketbook in such a short time."


 

Edited by Tinalera
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22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 137/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 154/203

9:00 PM - 156/203

12:00 AM - 52/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 22/78

6:30 PM - 10/63

7:00 PM - 13/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 4/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 37/63

10:45 PM - 18/63

11:15 PM - 26/61

11:45 PM - 4/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 13/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 4/48

7:00 PM - 19/79

7:15 PM - 12/44

7:45 PM - 11/44

8:00 PM - 18/45

8:15 PM - 14/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

919(+14)/4384(-774) (21.0%)

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 139/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 158/203

9:00 PM - 156/203

12:00 AM - 56/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 22/78

6:30 PM - 12/63

7:00 PM - 13/78

8:45 PM - 14/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 4/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 33/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 40/63

10:45 PM - 20/63

11:15 PM - 26/61

11:45 PM - 4/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 13/55

6:30 PM - 42/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 22/79

7:15 PM - 12/44

7:45 PM - 13/44

8:00 PM - 18/45

8:15 PM - 19/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

 

Total

 

944(+25)/4384 (21.5%)

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On 6/28/2019 at 5:06 PM, VenomXXR said:

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 20 Days to Previews 

 

Dolby Prime: 2 show times, 127 tickets sold out of 410 available (30.98%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 52 tickets sold out of 302 available (17.22%)

3D: 10 show times, 18 tickets sold out of 794 available (02.27%)

Digital: 22 show times, 62 tickets sold out of 1311 available (04.73%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 71 tickets sold out of 125 available (56.8%)

 

Total: 37 show times, 330 tickets sold out of 2942 available (11.22%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 12 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Prime: 2 show times, 149 tickets sold out of 410 available (36.34%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 74 tickets sold out of 302 available (24.50%)

3D: 10 show times, 33 tickets sold out of 794 available (04.16%)

Digital: 22 show times, 87 tickets sold out of 1311 available (06.63%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 85 tickets sold out of 125 available (68.0%)

 

Total: 37 show times, 428 tickets sold out of 2942 available (14.55%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

 

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On 7/5/2019 at 11:05 AM, Inceptionzq said:

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

 

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

 

 

IMAX:

 

7 PM – 28/411(+3)

 

10 PM – 7/411(+2)

 

 

 

Real D 3D:

 

6:30 PM – 0/48

 

7:10 PM – 5/48

 

9:25 PM – 0/48

 

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

 

 

Prime 3D:

 

7:30 PM – 56/187(+4)

 

10:30 PM – 3/187

 

 

 

Dolby:

 

6 PM- 129/217(+8)

 

9 PM – 58/217(+3)

 

11:50 PM – 5/217

 

 

 

2D:

 

6 PM – 32/158

 

6 PM – 0/56

 

6:10 PM – 0/48

 

6:20 PM – 4/44

 

6:40 PM – 0/94

 

6:50 PM – 9/92

 

7:20 PM – 11/44

 

7:40 PM – 2/56

 

7:50 PM – 0/44

 

8 PM – 3/40

 

8:10 PM – 2/36

 

8:20 PM – 0/48

 

8:30 PM – 4/94

 

8:40 PM – 0/92

 

8:50 PM – 0/44

 

9:05 PM – 4/158

 

9:10 PM – 0/56

 

9:15 PM – 0/48

 

9:20 PM – 0/44

 

9:30 PM – 3/94

 

9:45 PM – 0/92

 

10:15 PM – 0/44

 

10:40 PM – 2/56(+2)

 

10:50 PM – 0/44

 

11 PM – 0/40

 

11:10 PM – 0/36

 

11:20 PM – 0/48

 

11:30 PM – 0/94

 

11:40 PM – 0/92

 

11:50 PM – 0/44

 

11:55 PM – 0/56

 

12:00 AM – 0/158

 

 

 

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

 

 

IMAX:

 

7 PM – 45/384(+5)

 

10 PM – 5/384

 

 

 

Real D 3D:

 

6:30 PM – 3/85

 

7:30 PM – 0/52

 

9:30 PM – 0/85

 

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

 

 

Dolby:

 

6 PM – 75/210(+2)

 

9 PM – 44/210(+4)

 

 

 

2D:

 

6 PM – 25/159

 

6:10 PM – 0/52

 

6:15 PM – 0/52

 

6:20 PM – 0/41

 

6:40 PM – 14/85

 

6:50 PM – 2/39

 

7:10 PM – 7/45

 

7:15 PM – 2/85

 

7:20 PM – 0/45

 

7:40 PM – 0/52

 

7:50 PM – 0/39

 

8 PM – 8/159

 

8:10 PM – 0/45

 

8:20 PM – 0/41

 

8:30 PM – 11/85

 

9:10 PM – 0/52

 

9:15 PM – 2/52

 

9:20 PM – 0/41

 

9:30 PM – 0/159

 

9:40 PM – 0/85

 

9:50 PM – 0/39

 

10:10 PM – 0/45

 

10:15 PM – 0/85

 

10:20 PM – 0/45

 

10:40 PM – 0/52

 

10:50 PM – 0/39

 

11 PM – 2/159

 

 

 

Total from 6 theaters: 1135(+21)/16866 (6.7% (+0.1))

 

 

This is for roughly the past 2 days since I couldn’t do an update yesterday. The number of tickets sold was 52, but one theater seems to have messed up with their Dolby showings at some point because they lost a bunch of tickets.

 

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 31/411(+3)

10 PM – 7/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 0/48

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 57/187(+1)

10:30 PM – 3/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 129/217

9 PM – 58/217

11:50 PM – 5/217

 

2D:

6 PM – 35/158(+3)

6 PM – 4/56(+4)

6:10 PM – 0/48

6:20 PM – 4/44

6:40 PM – 0/94

6:50 PM – 9/92

7:20 PM – 11/44

7:40 PM – 2/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 3/40

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 4/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 3/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 2/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 0/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 51/384(+6)

10 PM – 6/384(+1)

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 3/85

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby:

6 PM – 77/210(+2)

9 PM – 44/210

 

2D:

6 PM – 26/159(+1)

6:10 PM – 0/52

6:15 PM – 0/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 14/85

6:50 PM – 4/39(+2)

7:10 PM – 7/45

7:15 PM – 2/85

7:20 PM – 0/45

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 8/159

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 11/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 2/159

Total from 7 theaters: 1406(+271)/18205(+1339) (7.7% (+1))

I decided to add one more theater to spread out a little more in the Denver Metro area. So, the tickets sold from the original 6 theaters is 47.

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The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 Days and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 100 1,421 18,477 7.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

So this is an interesting pattern. Wednesday sold 52 tickets, Thursday 65. Then yesterday had 56 tickets sold, and today was 66. I don't know what this means, but it's an interesting little detail I noticed.

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The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

187

17705

20397

2692

13.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              133

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.6414x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 12 days before release.

3.1194x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 12 days before release.

3.7545x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 12 days before release.

1.6546x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 12 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 25, King of the Monsters had 21, andToy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-12:

Pika        29 seats sold [0 sellouts/75 shows |   8068/8648 seats    |   580 seats sold |  6.71% sold]

Aladdin   46 seats sold [0 sellouts/70 shows |   9134/9997 seats   |   863 seats sold |   8.63% sold]

KotM      50 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 11415/12132 seats  |   717 seats sold |   5.91% sold]

TS4        36 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 10684/12311 seats  | 1627 seats sold | 13.22% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.6255x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 12 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-12:

JW2           45 seats sold  [0 sellouts/97 shows   |   8583/10113 seats | 1530 seats sold | 15.13% sold]

TLK (JW)  136 seats sold  [0 sellouts/187 shows | 15496/17983 seats | 2487 seats sold | 13.83% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

187

17705

20397

2692

13.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              133

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.6414x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 12 days before release.

3.1194x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 12 days before release.

3.7545x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 12 days before release.

1.6546x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 12 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 25, King of the Monsters had 21, andToy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-12:

Pika        29 seats sold [0 sellouts/75 shows |   8068/8648 seats    |   580 seats sold |  6.71% sold]

Aladdin   46 seats sold [0 sellouts/70 shows |   9134/9997 seats   |   863 seats sold |   8.63% sold]

KotM      50 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 11415/12132 seats  |   717 seats sold |   5.91% sold]

TS4        36 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 10684/12311 seats  | 1627 seats sold | 13.22% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.6255x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 12 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-12:

JW2           45 seats sold  [0 sellouts/97 shows   |   8583/10113 seats | 1530 seats sold | 15.13% sold]

TLK (JW)  136 seats sold  [0 sellouts/187 shows | 15496/17983 seats | 2487 seats sold | 13.83% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

That's very good imo. Selling quite good. 

 

Do you have any comps with Captain Marvel? Just want to see that. Because that movie went on to earn 20M in Thursday previews. 

 

 

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Just now, Thanos Legion said:

 

:thinking:

I thought someone might notice that. :)

 

Refunded tickets at one of the theaters I'm tracking now that I wasn't then.  Depressed the overall tickets sold but if I DIDN'T track that theater, there would have been more tickets sold region wide.

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10 minutes ago, GrandierHorror said:

Do you have any comps with Captain Marvel? Just want to see that. Because that movie went on to earn 20M in Thursday previews. 

I do, but thanks to the difference of pre-sale pattern of CBMs/SW films and family films it isn't as quite as useful.  Has been gaining but right now it's still behind:

 

.6725x the amount of tickets sold as Captain Marvel 12 days before release.

 

CM did have 59 days of pre-sales, but even then there's a similar story with EG and IW.

 

.1456x the amount of tickets sold as Endgame 12 days before release.

.3182x the amount of tickets sold as Infinity War on an adjusted basis 12 days before release.

 

The favorable comp, however, is DP2.  Which makes sense as that wasn't as frontloaded on the pre-sale front:

 

.9123x the amount of tickets sold as Deadpool 2 on an adjusted basis 12 days before release.

Edited by Porthos
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7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

@Porthos Any early predictions on what you’re thinking for TLK previews?

really want to see the same day comps from other folks who have the data, as I'm getting a little concerned that Sacto might be over-performing again.  I think I've had the highest comp against TS4 (and perhaps Aladdin) so I'm concerned a bit about that.  But I haven't rigorously tracked and kept notes of other folks comps.

 

But if I look at straight Sacto numbers 19m-22m sounds about right.  Right now at least.

Edited by Porthos
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@Porthos I did some searching of your previous Aladdin comps and found something interesting

 

Aladdin T-12

1.488x as many tickets as Detective Pikachu

0.523x as many tickets as Fallen Kingdom

 

$7.00m previews (actual)

Detective Pikachu predicted $8.48m previews (1.21x overperformed)

Fallen Kingdom predicted $8.00m previews (1.14x overperformed)

 

The Lion King T-12

4.641x as many tickets as Detective Pikachu 

1.626x as many tickets as Fallen Kingdom

 

Detective Pikachu predicts $26.5m previews

Fallen Kingdom predicted $24.9m previews

 

When you adjust for the overperformance of both of these they BOTH point to $21.8m previews. Which is also exactly the same as the Aladdin comp itself.

Edited by Molek
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3 minutes ago, Molek said:

@Porthos I did some searching of your previous Aladdin comps and found something interesting

 

Aladdin T-12

1.488x as many tickets as Detective Pikachu

0.523x as many tickets as Fallen Kingdom

 

$7.00m previews (actual)

Detective Pikachu predicted $8.48m previews (1.21x overperformed)

Fallen Kingdom predicted $8.00m previews (1.14x overperformed)

 

The Lion King T-12

4.641x as many tickets as Detective Pikachu 

1.626x as many tickets as Fallen Kingdom

 

Detective Pikachu predicts $26.5m previews

Fallen Kingdom predicted $24.9m previews

 

When you adjust for the overperformance of both of these they BOTH point to $21.8m previews. Which is also exactly the same as the Aladdin comp itself.

Unless I am missing a method to the math, if you adjust for over-performance they should point to the same comp, given I'm using the same ticket pool shouldn't they?  

 

Either way, using comps at 12 days out as an absolute measuring stick is a little dicey given differing review/world premiere rollout strategies.

 

Maybe I'm just missing the rationale here though.  Late at night so it's very possible. :)

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21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Unless I am missing a method to the math, if you adjust for over-performance they should point to the same comp, given I'm using the same ticket pool shouldn't they?  

 

Either way, using comps at 12 days out as an absolute measuring stick is a little dicey given differing review/world premiere rollout strategies.

 

Maybe I'm just missing the rationale here though.  Late at night so it's very possible. :)

I think I meant the ratio of those two comps:

 

Aladdin

Pikachu / Fallen Kingdom

1.488/0.523

 

The Lion King

Pikachu / Fallen Kingdom

4.641/1.626

 

They're both almost the same.

 

I might be missing something obvious like you said, but doesn't that indicate it's performing identically to Aladdin by using the ratio?

 

EDIT: I probably need to take a break cuz this isn't even making sense to me anymore. You are most likely right with the same ticket pool thing. It's coincidentally pointing to the same thing because it IS the same thing. Nevermind then..

Edited by Molek
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35 minutes ago, Molek said:

EDIT: I probably need to take a break cuz this isn't even making sense to me anymore. You are most likely right with the same ticket pool thing. It's coincidentally pointing to the same thing because it IS the same thing. Nevermind then..

No worries, it might have been my fault. :)  When I said I wanted to see other comps to see if TLK is over-performing locally, I meant from other trackers.  Like, let's say @FlashMaster659 comps was pointing to around 1.45x TS4 (which is what I vaguely recall) and mine says 1.65x TS4 the answer might be in the middle.  

 

I know that @captainwondyful is providing comps against Aladdin and TS4 and @VenomXXR is providing a comp against a final number of tickets sold (which if I wanted to rejigger, I could do that on my own end as well).  Vaguely recall a couple of other trackers doing the same.

 

What I wanted to do is see if our various comps against Aladdin and TS4 are in the same ballpark or not.

 

We might be able to get an expected range that way and then narrow it down in time (while keeping an eye out for obvious outliers in one direction or the other).

 

PS:  Also want to say, appreciate the effort you put in even if it didn't do all that much in the end. :)

Edited by Porthos
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I didn't start tracking Aladdin or TS4 until the week they opened so I don't have comps two weeks before.

 

For what it's worth at my local

 

12 days out from Thur previews TLK is 

 

71.4% ahead of Aladdin 2 days before previews

.18% ahead of  TS4 2 days before previews

38.69% behind TS4 the night before previews

 

TLK (Sat Evening 7/6) 12 showings

 

RPX

(6pm)  23/320

(9pm)  34/320

2D

(6:30pm) 7/301

(7:30pm) 17/257

(8:30pm) 14/255

(9:30pm) 5/301

(10:30pm) 10/257

3D

(7pm) 13/301

(8pm) 12/205

(10pm) 5/301

(11pm) 4/205

FAN EVENT
(5pm) 24/205

 

=168/3228 = 5.2%

 

 

ALADDIN (4 showings - another was added late Thur night so not counted here) Noon TUES O/W

 

98/1242 =7.89%

 

TS4 (8 showings) 4PM TUES O/W

 

165/2049 = 8.05%

 

TS4 (8 showings) 7:30PM WED O/W

233/2049 = 11.37%

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