The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:00pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	236	19215	23784	4569	19.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	221
Total Seats Sold Today	749

 

T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comps #1 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	171.83		392	2649		0/112	7619/10268	25.80%		9.79m
Aladdin	147.66		585	3091		0/117	10762/13853	22.31%		10.31m
KotM	190.78		398	2386		0/125	13097/15483	15.41%		12.02m
TS4	83.10		881	5478		2/149	11387/16865	32.48%		9.97m
TLK	49.60		1139	9177		0/288	18654/27831	32.97%		11.41m
H&S	226.69		500	2008		0/128	12318/14326	14.02%		13.15m
It 2 (adj)	n/a		744	4552		0/236	17653/22205	20.05%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block. See this post for explanation.

 

T-0 Mid Day Adjusted Comps #2 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	81.81		761	4953		0/147	8762/13715	36.11%		12.52m
DP2	58.97		942	6871		0/167	9330/16201	42.41%		10.97m
It 2 (JW adj)	n/a		630	4052		0/236	14390/18442	21.97%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (JW adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

 

Even more LOLish comps:

 

T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comps #1 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	50.39		1053	9033		1/202	10114/19147	47.18%		10.43m
EG	18.03		1481	25248		79/333	5023/3071	83.41%		10.82m

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block. See this post for explanation.

 

T-0 Mid Day Adjusted Comps #2 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	32.98		752	12286		0/182	2873/15159	81.05%		12.86m
Solo	76.41		425	5303		2/142	8150/13453	39.42%		10.77m
It 2 (IW adj)	n/a		630	4052		0/236	14390/18442	21.97%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (JW adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo and Infinity War.

 

T-0 Mid Day Adjusted Comps #3 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Venom	119.25		725	3481		0/127	9748/13229	26.31%		11.92m
It 2 (V adj)	n/a		660	4151		0/236	16288/0439	20.31%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (V adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom.

 

No time for analysis, but  good to see they're all more or less pointing to the same range. 👍

[keysersoze123]

1st 2 shows at AMC Empire 25 have had good walk ins.

 

69/145(5PM),

39/134(515PM)

 

These shows were at 20 and 12 tickets yesterday night.

Edited September 5, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Eric is Quiet]

Final It: Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	155	3,464	27,722	12.50%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 921

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,075

 

Comp

8.074x of Crawl on Preview Night (8.07M)

1.821x of Once Upon on Preview Night (10.56M)

5.321x of Scary Stories on Preview Night (12.4M)

4.934x of Good Boys on Preview Night (10.36M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.360x of The Lion King on Preview Night (8.27M)

1.707x of Hobbs & Shaw on Preview Night (9.9M)

 

This was a great final day. Two out of the three prior comps increased, and adding in some new ones that were previously lolcomps, they still point to a preview in the double digits. Admittedly, Hobbs & Shaw declining quite a bit does have me a tad cautious, but it's only barely below 10M, and everyone else's comps point to way better results, so I'm still optimistic in this hitting at least 10M.

[Old Spice]

It Chapter 2 Final Report for Salt Lake City. Cinemark Sugarhouse, 3:40 local time, 8 screenings.

 

5:00 PM 61/104

6:00 PM 38/62

7:00 PM 48/63

7:30 PM 30/62

8:40 PM 75/107

9:40 PM 44/62

10:40 PM 38/62

11:15 PM 24/62

 

Total 358/584 = 61.3%

 

73.7% of Lion King = $141.2 OW

177% of Once Upon =$71.4

322% of John Wick = $183.19

354% of Godzilla = $169

192% of Pika = $104.9

 

Pennywise started strong and finished strong here in SLC. Comps are all over the board since I don't have any R-rated horrors to compare to, but the two that appear to make the most sense are OUATIH and oddly, Pika. I'll stick with an OW in the $95-100 range.

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/4/2019 at 4:57 PM, Inceptionzq said:

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 34/384(+5)

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 139/210(+9)

10:45 PM – 50/210(+5)

2D: 

5 PM – 25/85(+9)

5:30 PM – 7/52(+5)

6 PM – 3/52

6:30 PM – 15/52(+4)

7 PM – 58/159(+4)

7:30 PM – 4/85

7:45 PM – 10/85(+3)

8:45 PM – 16/85(+12)

9:15 PM – 4/52(+2)

NEW 9:30 PM – 0/45

9:45 PM – 0/52

NEW 10 PM – 0/40

10:15 PM – 7/52(+2)

NEW 10:15 PM – 0/39

10:30 PM – 1/159(+1)

Total from 8 theaters(98 showings): 1839(+357)/15008(+936) (12.3%)

Well, I’ll just have to use what I’ve got.

Adjusted TLK comp: 10.2M

Adjusted Hobbs: 15.83M

Adjusted OUATiH: 13.34M

Also, I messed up again. OUATiH was only in 8 out of the 9 theaters I track, and I didn’t adjust for that yesterday. So, it really was 13.68M

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 108/411(+37)

10:45 PM – 14/411(+10)

Prime:

7 PM – 108/187(+33)

10:45 PM – 20/187(+5)

Dolby:

7 PM – 159/217(+27)

10:45 PM – 55/217(+22)

2D:

5 PM – 23/56(+6)

5:15 PM – 14/38(+7)

5:30 PM – 9/38(+3)

5:45 PM – 2/48(+2)

6 PM – 21/48(+2)

6:15 PM – 8/44(+5)

6:30 PM – 3/44(+3)

7 PM – 16/158(+8)

7 PM – 4/92

7:15 PM – 14/92(+8)

7:30 PM – 20/94(+10)

8 PM – 21/48(+10)

8:15 PM – 9/48(+6)

8:30 PM – 7/44

8:45 PM – 17/56(+15)

9 PM – 7/38(+2)

9:15 PM – 1/38(+1)

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 4/44(+4)

10:15 PM – 2/44(+2)

10:30 PM – 9/44(+9)

10:40 PM – 3/94(+3)

10:45 PM – 29/158(+29)

10:45 PM – 0/92

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 46/384(+12)

10:45 PM – 6/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 150/210(+11)

10:45 PM – 65/210(+15)

2D:

5 PM – 37/85(+12)

5:30 PM – 13/52(+6)

6 PM – 14/52(+11)

6:30 PM – 17/52(+2)

7 PM – 67/159(+9)

7:30 PM – 19/85(+15)

7:45 PM – 18/85(+8)

8:45 PM – 24/85(+8)

9:15 PM – 4/52

9:30 PM – 5/45(+5)

9:45 PM – 2/52(+2)

10 PM – 0/40

10:15 PM – 7/52

10:15 PM – 0/39

10:30 PM – 6/159(+5)

Total from 9 theaters(127 showings): 3883(+1606)/18051(-183) (21.5%)

TLK comp: 11.77M

Hobbs comp: 10.97M

Adjusted OUATiH comp: 11.73M

Again, Denver explodes on the day of previews. It’s really satisfying to see all these comps come to a general agreement. I’m gonna go with the average of these three, 11.5M.

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:00pm - 5:00pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	236	18125	23784	5659	23.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1090

 

Final Adjusted Comps #1 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	3:30-4:00	181.46		447	3096		0/112	7172/10268	30.15%		10.34m
Aladdin	5:00-5:30	144.05		809	3900		0/117	9953/13853	28.15%		10.08m
KotM	3:20-4:00	195.21		492	2878		0/129	12885/15763	18.26%		12.30m
TS4	4:30-5:30	83.78		1228	6706		2/156	10656/17362	38.62%		10.05m
TLK	4:30-5:45	51.18		1800	10977		7/289	17020/27997	39.21%		11.77m
H&S	5:40-6:15	182.87		1064	3072		0/128	11254/14326	21.44%		10.60m
It 2 (adj)	4:00-5:00	n/a		1066	5618		0/236	16587/22205	25.30%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block. See this post for explanation.

 

Final Adjusted Comps #2 (probably lol - use at own risk)

	Time	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	5:30-6:15	79.03		1275	6228		1/147	7487/13715	45.41%		12.09m
DP2	5:30-6:30	60.52		1262	8133		3/169	8357/16490	49.32%		11.26m
It 2 (JW adj)	4:00-5:00	n/a		870	4922		0/236	13520/18442	26.69%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (JW adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

 

===

 

Thoughts and comp call in a bit.  Maybe more comps later on, though I doubt it since the range is pretty tight.

[Porthos]

No other way to say it, but that It 2 finished strong tonight (and the last couple of nights) in Sacto.  What was looking like perhaps 9m to 10m now looks 10.5m to 11.5m.

 

One of my comps points to more than 12m, but I think that's a little flawed as KotM had a lot of PLFs inflating it.  Think a flat 11m +/- .4m sounds about right.  Bumped it up to 11.25m +/- .4m See next post for why.

 

That's a bit more of a range than I like to call, but I don't have any 5pm comps in my system.  Then there's the fact that there is matinees, but almost certainly fewer kids tickets being bought.  And PLF, while solid, wasn't something to write home about.

 

For what it's worth, John Wick 3 comped to around 10.3m.  Might throw in some other comps and if I see something interesting.

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by Porthos

[RealLyre]

as we get the latest update from Porthos. it shouldn't be too long until deadline comes with their "early" 10M-11M thursday preview estimate 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No other way to say it, but that It 2 finished strong tonight (and the last couple of nights) in Sacto.  What was looking like perhaps 9m to 10m now looks 10.5m to 11.5m.

 

One of my comps points to more than 12m, but I think that's a little flawed as KotM had a lot of PLFs inflating it.  Think a flat 11m +/- .4m sounds about right.  That's a bit more of a range than I like to call, but I don't have any 5pm comps in my system.  Then there's the fact that there is matinees, but almost certainly fewer kids tickets being bought.  And PLF, while solid, wasn't something to write home about.

 

For what it's worth, John Wick 3 comped to around 10.3m.  Might throw in some other comps and if I see something interesting.

 

More comps (all adjusted to one degree or another):

 

Venom comps to                         11.28m

Solo comps to                             11.99m

Endgame comps to                      12.65m

Captain Marvel comps to             11.02m

Ant-Man and the Wasp comps to 12.29m

Infinity War comps to                   14.58m (!!!)

 

Hmmm...

 

Those all had 3D, but probably fewer kids tickets than the family films.  I think I'll up my comp a bit to 11.25m, but still +/- .4m.

 

I can't quite pull the trigger on 11.5m as my center-line, I think.  Too many matinees and no 3D.  But I certainly won't be shocked to see it come in over 11.75m.  Just not going to predict it.  

[Tinalera]

14 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

as we get the latest update from Porthos. it shouldn't be too long until deadline comes with their "early" 10M-11M thursday preview estimate 

We should deliberately one time make no estimate predictionsl at all for a movie. See what type of estimates the sites come up with or do incredibly vague "estimates between 5 and 15 million"

 

 

Or keep wildly keep changing estimates and watch them try to keep up

Edited September 6, 2019 by Tinalera

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

We should deliberately one time make no estimate predictionsl at all for a movie. See what type of estimates the sites come up with or do incredibly vague "estimates between 5 and 15 million"

 

 

Or keep wildly keep changing estimates and watch them try to keep up

That'll be the one of the times when Deadline "mysteriously" doesn't make an early Thursday preview estimate at all.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Alex SciChannel]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

More comps (all adjusted to one degree or another):

 

Venom comps to                         11.28m

Solo comps to                             11.99m

Endgame comps to                      12.65m

Captain Marvel comps to             11.02m

Ant-Man and the Wasp comps to 12.29m

Infinity War comps to                   14.58m (!!!)

 

Hmmm...

 

Those all had 3D, but probably fewer kids tickets than the family films.  I think I'll up my comp a bit to 11.25m, but still +/- .4m.

 

I can't quite pull the trigger on 11.5m as my center-line, I think.  Too many matinees and no 3D.  But I certainly won't be shocked to see it come in over 11.75m.  Just not going to predict it.  

Come on! I'm rooting for It 2 to fight as close as possible to 12M. We need the internal multiplier to be big enough to crack $100Mil.

[keysersoze123]

I still capturing latest updates as shows happen and IT2 had a great day at AMC Empire 25. Already sold more than 500 tickets since yesterday night. Probably will sell sell another 100 before end of day. I hate to extrapolate based on 1 theater but it has already sold almost $32K worth of tickets in 1 theater which is terrific considering how anemic PS looked even couple of days back. 

 

One advantage it has compared to kids and PG13 movies is almost all tickets are adult tickets. Senior ticket prices are lower but how many seniors will be there for a horror sequel on its opening night.

[FlashMaster659]

Sorry guys. No Inland Empire report today. Unfortunately missed a huge chunk of Ontario Palace shows.

[FlashMaster659]

@captainwondyful Still appreciate you trying to help though 

[Inceptionzq]

https://deadline.com/2019/09/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-birds-of-prey-teaser-1202713529/

 

Quote

New Line’s It: Chapter Two is seeing an estimated gross tonight per sources between $10M-$11M.

 

[keysersoze123]

its playing great in late shows and so it could go higher.

[Cap]

21 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

@captainwondyful Still appreciate you trying to help though 

Sorry I couldn't do more!!!  

[FlashMaster659]

I think I’ll just post the update anyway minus the Ontario Palace.

 

It: Chapter 2 Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL UPDATE [3:30pm - 6:30pm])

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	221	9068	40843	31775	22.20%

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[JB33]

25 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

https://deadline.com/2019/09/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-birds-of-prey-teaser-1202713529/

 

 

@RealLyre

 

Ahahahaha!