The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[PKMLover]

@Porthos so how much money can we expect for F2 in the OW? 

[frozenheart1993]

4 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

@Porthos so how much money can we expect for F2 in the OW? 

I think 70~90m is more reasonable.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-45 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	12098	53600	41502	23.57%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 1596

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

===

 

Very weak day today due to dozens of people cancelling their seats for some reason. It'll probably rebound though. Also the Ontario Palace finally added the IMAX shows.

Edited November 6, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[frozenheart1993]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

What's there to say?  Just a great start for Frozen 2.  The Aladdin comp is pretty lol-worthy, but the TS4 and TLK comps point to a very strong start.

 

I will add two notes of caution, as is my wont.  First off, we're a week closer to release compared to all three comps, so a slightly stronger start should be expected.  So how much of it is calendar and how much of it is sheer demand we'll find out in due time. But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it.

 

The other note of caution is that this isn't really dominating at the PLF screens locally.  290 out of the 901 seats sold locally were PLF priced.  That might seem like a high percentage, but on Day One I expect a bit more of a rush for the best screens in the best theaters in town.  Century Arden's XD screen and the TrueIMAX screen didn't see all that much of a sales rush, though Arden was fairly respectable.

 

How this will effect the average price per ticket remains to be seen, but it's something I'm going to keep my eye on as the sales continue.

 

---

 

As for TROS?  Just another fantastic day, relatively speaking.  Would have been even higher, but there was a group cancelation (10 tickets or so) at a theater that wasn't spread out to other showings. 

 

I have to think the Frozen 2 might have helped a bit as at least a few people thought "Well, getting my Frozen tickets, might as well get TROS at the same time."  Or maybe it's the constant promotion for The Mandalorian keeping SW in mind.  

 

Dunno.  But can't call it anything other than what it is: Another strong day for SW and a great day for Disney when both are combined.

So F2 OW is weaker than TS in your opinion, right?

[Eric Burnett]

I'm on my last few brain cells, but hopefully I have enough brain meats to keep on going for the comps

[Eric Burnett]

Doctor Sleep Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	28	99	4,981	1.99%

 

Comp

1.500x of Crawl 3 days before release (1.50M)

0.152x of Once Upon (882K)

0.805x of Scary Stories (1.87M)

0.064x of It: Chapter Two (671K)

0.631x of Ad Astra (946K)

0.388x of Terminator (912K)

 

Sales here seem soft and the comps are pretty mediocre. But the Scary Stories just feels right, so I'll be optimistic and hope for that. But most of these comps would probably point to sub-20M, which...yeesh.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/31/2019 at 11:23 AM, Porthos said:

T-50 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-50	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	461.16		74	2281		0/81	8327/10608	21.50%		95.46m
TROS (adj)	n/a		49	10519		2/193	11468/21987	47.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel

How will TRoS T-x days work with Endgame 24 hours presales till it reach T-24 days then start regular count down 🤔

[Eric Burnett]

Last Christmas Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	18	28	2,675	1.05%

 

Comp

 

0.406x of Stuber (304K)

1.647x of Racing in Rain (741K)

1.556x of Bernadette (311K)

0.103x of Hustlers (257K)

0.065x of Downton Abbey (137K)

 

This looks pretty awful not gonna lie. Maybe it'll pick up tomorrow, but this is off to a very rough start here

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor Any way for you to access Pulse numbers of TS4 as you used to extrapolate and compare with Cinemark extrapolated data of F2. 

 

How is F2 looking anyways.

[Eric Burnett]

Midway Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	37	3,612	1.02%

 

Comp

0.311x of Angel Has Fallen (466K)

0.257x of Rambo (334K)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.080x of Hobbs & Shaw (463K)

 

Eh, I guess this leads to low teens?

[Eric Burnett]

Playing with Fire Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	30	27	3,876	0.70%

 

Comp

0.287x of Dora (359K)

0.587x of Abominable (381K)

0.284x of Addams Family (355K)

0.123x of Maleficent (284K)

 

lol

[Eric Burnett]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	418	15,444	2.71%

 

Comp

3.635x of Maleficent (8.36M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.235x of Lion King (5.42M)

 

Now this seems poor, and I'm sure people will start to have concerns. But unlike Porthos I compare movies on the "T-X" day. That makes things super wonky until a week or so before release. It's not a perfect system, but it usually leads to a certain idea about where the movie is heading, and it's fun to see it go up or down. I don't know what the next few days entail, but I think it will see some sort of increase in the coming days, although how much remains to be seen. But in all, I think over 400 tickets is...good. Nothing astonishing, nor indicates anything close to Lion King's OW, but still quite good.

[Eric Burnett]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-45 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,096	28,932	27.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

A low, but still seems fine?

[Legion Again]

Porthos TS4 and TLK numbers look broadly pretty much what I'm thinking. curious to see how they move over next weeks.

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	103	972	26430	25458	3.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 972

 

===

 

Really dropped off after noon. No good comps available but it's still a strong start.

Edited November 6, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[danhtruong5]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	103	966	26430	25464	3.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 966

 

===

 

Really dropped off after noon. No good comps available but it's still a strong start.

Dont know if it can pull a $150M OW or not....

[BigMarkMan]

17 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	103	966	26430	25464	3.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 966

 

===

 

Really dropped off after noon. No good comps available but it's still a strong start.

How about the pre-sale of Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4……

[john2000]

13 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Dont know if it can pull a $150M OW or not....

it only passed a day, jesus...............

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, frozenheart1993 said:

So F2 OW is weaker than TS in your opinion, right?

I'd be fairly surprised if it performs under TS4, I'll put it that way.  And today's sales do nothing to dissuade me of that thought. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

How will TRoS T-x days work with Endgame 24 hours presales till it reach T-24 days then start regular count down 🤔

Usually I wait a few days after a movie starts pre-sales before bringing it back in to the system.  Mostly because the day-to-day comparisons will be whack, as you imply.  I haven't settled on an exact day yet, but I'll probably bring it back in around T-18 or so.  Maybe T-20.  Depend on my mood at the time, mostly.