The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Today at my theater:

 

Fast and Furious: 14/40

 

Demon Slayer:

3:10 Sub: 8/107

6:10 Dub: 0/107

9:10 Sub: 4/107

Total: 12/321

 

Raya:

3:15: 0/70

6:15: 9/70

9:15: 0/70

Total: 9/210

 

Spiral:

3:00 Dolby: 4/236

3:30: 0/77

4:00: 0/107

5:00 IMAX: 0/372

5:30: 0/67

6:00 Dolby: 0/236

6:30: 0/77

7:00: 0/107

7:30: 2/40

8:00 IMAX: 0/372

8:30: 0/67

9:00 Dolby: 0/236

Total: 6/1,994

 

 

Profile:

4:05: 3/50

7:05: 2/50

Total: 5/100

 

Dream Horse:

3:00: 0/77

4:00: 0/54

6:00: 4/77

7:00: 0/54

9:00: 0/77

Total: 4/339

Final Account:

3:00: 0/67

5:40: 1/67

8:25: 2/67

Total: 3/201

 

Here Today:

4:10: 1/40

8:10: 2/40

Total: 3/80

 

Godzilla vs Kong:

4:30: 0/70

7:20: 2/70

Total: 2/140

 

Finding You:

5:05: 0/40

8:25: 2/40

Total: 2/80

 

The Water Man:

3:25: 0/40

5:50: 2/40

Total: 2/80

 

Separation: 2/40

 

Wrath of Man, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Mortal Kombat, and Scoob have sold nothing. 

 

Cancel theaters.

[WrathOfHan]

On 5/12/2021 at 9:44 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Also, might as well start tracking screen space and showtimes again. I probably won't track differences week to week since my theater's hours have been fluctuating a lot with college students out of town and no big releases; I'll just note hour changes at the bottom.

 

Nobody, The Truffle Hunters, and The Unholy are gone.

 

Spiral: From the Book of Saw: 7 (IMAX and Largest x2)

Profile: 3 (Below Average)

Those Who Wish Me Dead: 3 (Largest)

Finding You: 2 (Average)

Top Gun: 2 (Dolby)

 

Mortal Kombat: 4 (Average and Smallest)

Private Rentals: 4 (Above Average and Average)

Wrath of Man: 4 (Largest and Above Average)

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train: 3 (2 sub, 1 dub; Average)

Raya and the Last Dragon: 3 (Average)

Godzilla vs Kong: 2 (Smallest)

Here Today: 2 (Smallest)

Separation: 2 (Smallest x0.5)

Fatima: 1 (Smallest x0.5)

Scott Pilgrim vs The World: 1 (Smallest x0.5)

Together Together: 1 (Smallest x0.5)

The Water Man: 1 (Smallest x0.5)

 

 

Fatima, Together Together, Top Gun, and Scott Pilgrim vs the World are gone.

 

Dream Horse: 3 (Above Average)

Final Account: 3 (Average)

Scoob!: 2 (Smallest)

 

Spiral: From the Book of Saw: 11 (IMAX, Dolby, Largest, Average, and Smallest x0.5)

Private Rentals: 4 (Above Average and Below Average)

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train: 3 (2 Sub, 1 Dub; Largest)

Mortal Kombat: 3 (Smallest)

Profile: 3 (Below Average)

Raya and the Last Dragon: 3 (Average)

Those Who Wish Me Dead: 3 (Largest)

Wrath of Man: 3 (Largest and Smallest x0.5)

Finding You: 2 (Smallest)

Godzilla vs Kong: 2 (Average)

Here Today: 2 (Smallest)

The Water Man: 2 (Smallest x0.5)

Separation: 1 (Smallest x0.5)

 

Weekend hours are down to an earlier close at 9, but weekday hours are still 5-8. Given how AQP and Cruella are tracking, I don't see that changing next week; Memorial Day hours are currently even worse at 6-8.

[john2000]

so for AQP2  we are looking at  3 million previews ?

[titanic2187]

looking at how recovery of across different subsectors'  , theatrical business seem to have the worst recovery. The business is still down by 80%+ from respective week in 2019 and the gap still haven't show any sign of closing up as the week progress .   

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

looking at how recovery of across different subsectors'  , theatrical business seem to have the worst recovery. The business is still down by 80%+ from respective week in 2019 and the gap still haven't show any sign of closing up as the week progress .   

I'm not expecting much recovery until the fall when more appealing titles are out. The top 10-12 metro areas will be fine this summer, but everywhere else will struggle.

[Eric S'ennui]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm not expecting much recovery until the fall when more appealing titles are out. The top 10-12 metro areas will be fine this summer, but everywhere else will struggle.

Still not fully convinced fall will be superior. Maybe the colder weather will help, but Spider-Man seems like the only movie so far that screams “must see can’t miss” to the GA IMO

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

looking at how recovery of across different subsectors'  , theatrical business seem to have the worst recovery. The business is still down by 80%+ from respective week in 2019 and the gap still haven't show any sign of closing up as the week progress .   

More a supply problem than a demand problem atm imo. There's not a single release coming out this summer that would've crossed $300 mil DOM normally while there were many that did gross over that in 2019. 

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

More a supply problem than a demand problem atm imo. There's not a single release coming out this summer that would've crossed $300 mil DOM normally while there were many that did gross over that in 2019. 

Still, with this quiet market, there is hardly any surprise hit. In any given year, a less crowded season would bring us some random surprise hit but it has been months since cinema reopen, there is hardly any surprise hit. I can only think of DS.  

 

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm not expecting much recovery until the fall when more appealing titles are out. The top 10-12 metro areas will be fine this summer, but everywhere else will struggle.

With this pace of recovery, I truly doubt USA or NA can reclaim back its former biggest grosser in the world which they had keep it for nearly a century.

Interesting enough, GDP rank by countries tend to correlate highly with box office market ranking. Below are comparison between GDP ranking and box office ranking by countries in 2010. Except for brazil that ranked number 7 GDP in 2010 but miss out the top 10 of box office market (replaced by SK), the rest top economics all make it into top box office market. So seeing USA or NA losing the top spot, it is kind of like a prelude foretelling USA's decline as the world superpower or hegemony. 

 

 

 

  

[WrathOfHan]

https://deadline.com/2021/05/a-quiet-place-part-ii-fandango-advance-ticket-sales-1234761986/

 

Quote

Interesting comparison here in regards to presales on A Quiet Place Part II, which industry estimates have pegged between $40M-$50M over four-days. Remember, the John Krasinski directed sequel was originally set to open on March 20. The world began ratcheting down from Covid on the week of March 8. In early March of last year, A Quiet Place Part II advance tickets were already on sale. Fandango reports that A Quiet Place Part II is currently selling twice as many advance tickets on its site and app as it did at the same point in its 2020 sales cycle, before the pic was pulled from the release schedule due to theater closures. 

 

[Maggie]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fandango reports that A Quiet Place Part II is currently selling twice as many advance tickets on its site and app as it did at the same point in its 2020 sales cycle, before the pic was pulled from the release schedule due to theater closures. 

I hope this is true. I need this movie to succeed

[titanic2187]

37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://deadline.com/2021/05/a-quiet-place-part-ii-fandango-advance-ticket-sales-1234761986/

 

 

That's more like it and how the things are supposed to be. 

 

So all major west coast states like NY, NJ, Illinois and Penn have their capacity limit increase to at least 50% or above starting not too long ago. This is another step of improvement towards normalcy   

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

106

1594

6.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

62

1415

4.38%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
399	38	13673	2.92%	15	75
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

GvK comp: 2.47M

 

Added one more theater, probably the last one I'll add for the time being. They just added showings there, so none of the tickets sold in the past day are from that theater. Just as a note, I won't have an Invisible Man comp until T-3 days, but if I had one, it would be handily beating it. The question is whether AQP will have a big surge in the last few days like Invisible Man.

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

109

1594

6.84%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

67

1415

4.73%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
441	42	13673	3.23%	15	75
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

GvK comp: 2.38M

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

 

GvK comp: 2.38M

That's not good.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

17

654

2.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

664

6.93%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
130	18	5759	2.26%	14	42
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Maleficent comp: 1.42M

 

We'll see how great of a comp Maleficent ends up being, so take it with a grain of salt, but it should at least work for target audience and type of movie.

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

19

654

2.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

47

664

7.08%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
148	18	6025	2.46%	15	43
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Maleficent comp: 1.44M

[Inceptionzq]

31 minutes ago, Maggie said:

That's not good.

I kinda wonder if the NBA playoffs could hurt A Quiet Place here, at least on Thursday. Denver has a game at 8:30 on Thursday. The NBA skews younger with its fanbase, and the first movie had a core audience of under 35. Anecdotal, but I’m waiting to buy A Quiet Place tickets until I know what time the Utah Jazz game is on Saturday. Not the exact same case for Denver since they know the time, but if people wanna watch the game, their options are limited.

 

Also GvK just might not be a very good comp. It’s obviously already not perfect, and the Fandango report makes me pause a bit. Tbf we don’t what that means in relation to full presales, especially considering it’s Memorial Day weekend and relatively more people could be using Fandango now. But just something to think about because you could just look at Porthos’ comp and it looks way better.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Also GvK just might not be a very good comp.

 

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

But just something to think about because you could just look at Porthos’ comp and it looks way better.

It's not a great comp either for multiple reasons, but I've been keeping an eye on the growth pattern of It 2, which might be in the right ballpark for AQP II, and it's pacing very nicely against it (no pun intended).

 

Sacto did see a nice jump in sales yesterday, after all.  And I can tell you it wasn't because of group sales.  Just two tickets here, four tickets there, adding up.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And I can tell you it wasn't because of group sales. 

 

Speaking of group sales, I would not expect much in the way of PWPs for either AQP II or Cruella for Thr night.  Always a danger in projecting one market, but as of right now there are/were only 14 or so available in the entire region (9 Cinemarks [all sold out], 4 Regals [one sold], and 1 Cinema West [none sold]).  Theaters are just not putting them in the 5pm+ window. 

 

Maybe it's because of two large(-ish) openers and screen crunch.  Maybe they're waiting to put up more slots (want to see demand of each new movie and all that).

 

But compared to GvK it's night and day when it comes to availability.  In the 5pm+ window at least.

Edited May 21, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

Comps are also generally awkward because some localities might have had a lot less covid recovery vs March than national avg, whereas some will have had more than avg.

[Inceptionzq]

29 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've been keeping an eye on the growth pattern of It 2, which might be in the right ballpark for AQP II

The growth pattern is certainly what I’m most interested in, and is what’s most important. We really don’t know how AQP should be selling, which is why I’ve been careful to not really comment on whether it’s doom and gloom or not. It’s annoying, but especially during these times, we just have to be patient.

[Tinalera]

22 hours ago, Jamiem said:

The image in the article (that highlights the survey) doesn't really back the headline up, both Suicide Squad (1 month later) and Shang-Chi (2 months later) are not a very big drop from Black Widow. I am more surprised by Jungle Cruise and to a lesser extent Space Jam being so in favour of watching at home though, as one is an action spectacle whilst the other a family friendly film (which have generally done well in the last 12 months) 

 

 

Of course all of this is survey data so needs to be taken with a massive grain of salt. 

 

 

For me the fact that 1/3 of people would prefer to see BW at home, while it's certainly the minority, 1/3 is still a decent chunk. I would have expected like maybe 10-15, 20 pushing it. But 32? Im thinking Studio execs might use (assuming the numbers pan out in reality)that thought of home stream opening as a positive thing to push for in future. To me it doesn't suggest theatres are doomed or anything, but over the next few years if (and that's a big IF) if that ratio of theatre to stream opening starts creeping and getting into 45-50 percent territory or more, I wonder what number where a disney or Universal says "yea, theatre experiences isn't giving us the roi"

 

 

The studios do seem to being pushing their family fare as being a streaming first option as people seem to be responding to it already. 

 

Edited May 21, 2021 by Tinalera