The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[titanic2187]

AQP2: 50m 3-days, 58m 4days. 

[Porthos]

On 5/24/2021 at 10:50 PM, Porthos said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	98	2360	3871	1511	39.03%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	4
Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	346
Total Seats Sold Today	240

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	45.93		342	3290		38/140	2616/5906	55.71%		4.41m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

 

===

 

It 2 sold 324 tickets at T-3 while AQP II on an adjusted basis sold 228.  It 2 had sold 2334/20105 tickets while AQP 2 (adj) is at 1475/3546. 

 

[1475/2334] x 10.5 = 6.64m. 

 

Take 10% off for lack of Canada, and on a pure It 2 comp we're at 5.97m.  Capacity is obvs an issue, but for now I'll stick with lopping off 10% of the Sacto total for my ad hoc guesstimate.

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	26	118	2479	4349	1870	43.00%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	15
Total Showings Added Today	20*
Total Seats Added Today	478
Total Seats Sold Today	359

*NOTE: Includes two non-reserved seating showings from the local drive-in

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	46.34		745	4035		49/205	4035/7536	53.55%		4.45m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	26	118	2479	4349	1870	43.00%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	15
Total Showings Added Today	20*
Total Seats Added Today	478
Total Seats Sold Today	359

*NOTE: Includes two non-reserved seating showings from the local drive-in

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	46.34		745	4035		49/205	4035/7536	53.55%		4.45m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

 

It 2 sold 485 tickets at T-2 while AQP II on an adjusted basis sold 330.  It 2 had sold 2819/22328 tickets while AQP 2 (adj) is at 1805/4024. 

 

[1805/2819] x 10.5 = 6.72m. 

 

Take 10% off for lack of Canada, and on a pure It 2 comp we're at 6.05m.  It 2 absolutely exploded at T-1 locally selling 1,001 tickets, so to keep pace, locally AQP II would probs have to sell around 650 tickets tomorrow on an adjusted basis to keep that pace.  Pretty tall ask, so expect the It 2 comp to come down tomorrow.  But, hey, maybe the Tomato Law will come through once again.

[Porthos]

On a lark, I did a Cruella check tonight.

 

625/2257 with 7 sellouts out of 75 showings.

 

Not having much better, I comped it against Aladdin internally and after various adjustments came up with 585/1926, or 30.37% of Aladdin at T-2, which would get 1.91m (with adjusting for lack of Canada).  Got to admit, I don't feel confident about that at all, given Aladdin busted out at the end, and I highly doubt Cruella will.  But, who knows, maybe this is a late bloomer during the actual OW as some trackers suggest.  Well, relatively speaking.

 

Do think that @Inceptionzq is onto something with Maleficent 2 being the best possible comp, caps and lack of Canada notwithstanding. 

 

*thinks*

 

Lemme check the thread for mo...

 

On 10/15/2019 at 10:45 PM, Porthos said:

Not exactly taking off in the land of tomatoes...

 

At T-2 Maleficent 2 has now sold 696 tickets region wide (+169 last two days)

 

38.99% of Pika Pika (2.22m) [-0.19m from last check]

36.13% of Aladdin   (2.53m) [-0.01m from last check]

24.69% of It 2          (2.59m) [-0.16m from last check]

 

the lolcheck is still lol-ish as it is dropping like a rock:

 

66.92% of H&S        (3.88m)  [-0.84m from last check]

 

TS4 is at 2.21m (-0.06m) and TLK is at 2.34m (-0.02m)

 

Still converging on 2.25m to 2.5m it appears.  Just not seeing much of a sign of 3m out of Sacramento.  Could just be doing poorly here.  Also could have the wrong comps.  Also could be really walkup based, as if it gets a good percentage of walkups, it'll gain on other films in a hurry.

 

Or it's just destined for 2.5m more or less.  Just have to see.

 

(Won't do a check tomorrow.  Might  do one on Thr night if I remember/feel like it)

 

 

Hmmmm.... 

 

Adjustment here is slightly different and comes to 611/696, or 87.79% of Maleficent 2 at the same time locally.  Adjust for lack of Canada again and we get 1.82m.

 

1.8m to 1.9m is... actually fairly interesting agreement, comp wise.  Fairly close to Inceptionzq's number, though I don't think he's adjusting for lack of Canada.

 

Could be, could be.  

Edited May 26, 2021 by Porthos

[Borobudur]

8 hours ago, Eric De Vil said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	306	2566	25368	10.12%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 109

Total Seats Added Today: 7,277

Total Seats Sold Today: 872

 

Comp

0.981x of Godzilla vs. Kong Sunday Before Release (9.52M)

1.395x of Mortal Kombat Tuesday Before Release (12.68M)

 

Bah gawd. That's all I gotta say

Comp

0.981x of Godzilla vs. Kong Sunday Before Release (9.52M)

1.395x of Mortal Kombat Tuesday Before Release (12.68M)

 

Can I assume half of those are from Thursday and another half for Friday? So the range for Thursday preview is about 4.76m-6,34m 

[Borobudur]

20 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually I have it at 50m 3days including preview. I mean, there are too many improvements since GvK that I cannot ignore such as higher capacity , higher theater count, higher vaccination rate, lower cases and death. And not to mention AQP2 is an theater exclusive with more positive review than GvK,

 

    

I like to see this too but the buzz is a bit weak for this to open that high at 50m just in 3 days. Even among BOT, I didn't see much buzz surrounding AQP2. 

[Inceptionzq]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fairly close to Inceptionzq's number, though I don't think he's adjusting for lack of Canada.

I am not adjusting for lack of Canada, but I should note that one of my top 2 theaters never put showtimes up until T-1 days for Maleficent, so I’ve had to adjust for that. It’s Highlands Ranch where Cruella has been doing extremely well. Same with one other theater where it has been doing decent enough to possibly hurt the comp.

[filmlover]

Will #AQuietPlace2 and #Cruella start summer movie season with a sizzle? https://t.co/Lhxnt79Hm0

— Variety (@Variety) May 26, 2021

 

Quote

 

The sequel to 2018’s “A Quiet Place,” starring Emily Blunt and directed by her husband John Krasinski, is expected to pull ahead of its competition. The nearly silent film is on track to collect $30 million over the weekend and $36 million through the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. That’s an impressive number given many cities continue to have capacity restrictions in place, and moviegoers, still skittish about the pandemic, have yet to return to their local cinema in droves.

It’s hard to tell if families, the target demographic for “Cruella,” will opt to watch the film from the comfort of their couches or, if after being stuck indoors for more than 14 months, they will be yearning to return to multiplexes. For that reason, tracking has been all over the place for “Cruella.” However, many box office prognosticators believe the film will collect around $17 million and $23 million between Friday and Sunday and could make above $30 million through Monday.

 

 

[Eric Quinn]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/05/26/black-widow-quiet-place-f9-tops-fandango-2021-summer-movie-poll/amp/
 

Fandango dropped their Most Anticipated Summer list. Grain of salt as per usual, but it’s always fun to look at these

1. Black Widow

2. A Quiet Place Part II

3. F9

4. The Suicide Squad

5. Shang-Chi

6. Cruella

7. Conjuring 3

8. The Hitman’s Bodyguard’s Wife

9. Space Jam 2

10. Hotel Transylvania 4

[Krissykins]

So tracking suggests for A Quiet Place 2: $30m/$36m.

 

Cruella is all over the place but their range is: $17m-23m 3 day. 

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, Eric De Vil said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/05/26/black-widow-quiet-place-f9-tops-fandango-2021-summer-movie-poll/amp/
 

Fandango dropped their Most Anticipated Summer list. Grain of salt as per usual, but it’s always fun to look at these

1. Black Widow

2. A Quiet Place Part II

3. F9

4. The Suicide Squad

5. Shang-Chi

6. Cruella

7. Conjuring 3

8. The Hitman’s Bodyguard’s Wife

9. Space Jam 2

10. Hotel Transylvania 4

So the 2nd most anticipated film is projected to make 30m? Then how much is F9 or Suicide squad supposed to make in their opening?  On par with MK?

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So the 2nd most anticipated film is projected to make 30m? Then how much is F9 or Suicide squad supposed to make in their opening?  On par with MK?

This pools doesn't really translate into box office, every year their list is more of a hit or miss than something concrete

 

 

 

 

[Eric Quinn]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So the 2nd most anticipated film is projected to make 30m? Then how much is F9 or Suicide squad supposed to make in their opening?  On par with MK?

Dude Rocketman hit #2 on the 2019 Summer list. Take a chill pill

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So the 2nd most anticipated film is projected to make 30m? Then how much is F9 or Suicide squad supposed to make in their opening?  On par with MK?

Fandago most anticipated list is mostly bleh. Most often films coming in next few weeks make it top films. Their annual anticipated list usually have stuff coming in Jan/Feb/Mar which is obv not as anticipated as much bigger projects. I remember in 2019 they had Glass over The Lion King.

[charlie Jatinder]

We don't have MTC numbers so I can't say really for sure like GVK, DS or MK were. But if THU do hit 4M, we shall get $50M 4 days opening.

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, Eric De Vil said:

Dude Rocketman hit #2 on the 2019 Summer list. Take a chill pill

so we are not really taking a grain of salt here. This is more like carrying a salt crystal 

[Maggie]

30M for AQP 2? That's some bullshit, Variety! At least i hope so...

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, Eric De Vil said:

Dude Rocketman hit #2 on the 2019 Summer list. Take a chill pill

[LegendaryBen]

I hope somebody posts how In The Heights is doing in pre-sales if they are available. I'm hoping for a big hit for this one like $100M domestically+.

[el sid]

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 76 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 29 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 21 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 141 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for June 4: 299.
Up 12% since yesterday. I'm way more confident now due to the first good reviews.

AQP II, previews on Thursday, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 256 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 138 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 49 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (3 very new showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 56 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 235 (19 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 456 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for May 27: 1209.

Up 34% since yesterday. Good. AQP II is now at 46% of the number that It 2 had on Wednesday of its release week (and I had to add Texas). It 2 had a jump of 30% in 2 days (Mon-Wed), AQP II a jump of 62% (on a lower level of course).
The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had also on Wednesday 628 sold tickets (again now with Texas).
If I would only have more confidence in the walk-ups. But for now I'm glad that the pre-sales improved (so much).

PS: The Forbes article says: As for Quiet Place 2 being ranked above Fast & Furious 9, well, had both films opened as intended in March 2020 and May 2020, they might have ended up pretty close.
Still looks strange now. Or maybe we underestimate AQP II .