The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Prime]

On 6/13/2021 at 11:04 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	53	865	8686	9.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

0.778x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-11 Before Release (7.55M)

1.670x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (32.34M)

 

Eesh. Not sure why today was so bad, but I hope this isn't a fluke.

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	53	891	8686	10.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.775x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-10 Before Release (7.52M)

1.555x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-10 Before Release (30.12M)

 

Yeah, I still think this movie should be picking up sales better at this point. But hey, maybe it'll explode week of release.

[Eric Prime]

On 6/13/2021 at 11:08 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	1057	10055	10.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Yeah, I think going above 100 tickets is still pretty good here. Still chugging along.

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	1180	13039	9.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 123

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor can you look up F9. Thanks.

[charlie Jatinder]

MCU July releases OD PS (At 7AM in morning) and PSm

 

Homecoming - $9.8M and 3.6x

AM&TW - $6.6M and 3.3x

Far From Home - $19.5M and 1.87x (Now see why I was so off during FFH. I said $50M OD in morning, turned out just $36M. Embarassing.) Day 2 (WED) was $9.9M and 2.76x.

 

BW may be 2x ish.

 

Other recent MCU

 

CM - $18.6M and 2.21x

A:EG - $63M and 1.54x

A:IW - $35M and 1.94x

BP - $23.2M and 2.22x

 

Perhaps the age of MCU being very very pre-sales loaded is here, but not as SW perhaps. TRoS was $36M and 1.37x.

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1.37x.

Holy moly

BW maybe 11*2.4 or something (though that’s not quite enough for my club, lol)

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Holy moly

BW maybe 11*2.4 or something (though that’s not quite enough for my club, lol)

I mean possible but post FFH I will probably go for 2x only considering CM was only 2.21x. Now after 2 years and PSm being low during Pandemic, even 2x may be optimistic. So we need 14-15M PS for $100M weekend. Not too hard but let's see.

[charlie Jatinder]

Other one I remember I was very wrong was The Lion King. $24M PS and 2.29x PSm.

 

Other comps were

JW:FK - 14 & 3.06x

Incredibles 2 - 17.3 & 3.05x

Toy Story 4 - 13 & 2.7x

 

I was thinking around $65M OD (2.7x) I think, ended up being only $55M.

 

Should add Frozen 2 as well. 16M & 2.1x. That was on another level annoying weekend thread. 

Edited June 15, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	79	11335	12415	1080	8.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-11 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	170.52		44	614		4/67	2283/2897	21.19%		8.19m
F9 (adj)	---		54	1047		0/79	11247/12295	9.15%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2:  F9 (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started on this track.

 

====

 

Something of a bounce back day relative to the last couple of days, but even with that F9 only kept its current pace against AQP II.  Also, slightly misleading as 17 of the tickets were purchased at two showings, so I don't know if we'll see the same level of sales tomorrow.  Still, better than the last couple of days.

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	79	11275	12417*	1142	9.20%

*NOTE: An error in a seat map count was caught, resulting in two more seats being available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

62

 

T-10 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	170.25		38	652		4/71	2368/3020	21.59%		8.17m
F9 (adj)	---		62	1110		0/79	11187/12297	9.15%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2:  F9 (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started on this track.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	16688	18186	1498	8.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

185

 

No official comps at the moment.

 

==

 

Another strong day for Black Widow locally.  Wish I could give some comps, but que será será.  Can follow @Inceptionzq's lead though and give:

 

BW (adj) = .24382x GvK (adj) final OD total at stop of tracking  ≈    2.34m

BW (adj) = .47632x AQP II (adj) final Thr total at stop of tracking ≈ 2.29m

BW (adj) = DBOX seats removed from track.  GvK (adj) and AQP II (adj) = total seats sold - seats sold at Cinema West locations.

 

No further adjustments made since they were relatively recent.  Seems to broadly agree with Inceptionzq's placement, if somewhat higher.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	16583	18186	1603	8.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

105

 

No official comps at the moment.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/14/2021 at 8:22 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

If someone is willing, we can add Harkins to portfolio of tracking. 33 theaters, best thing they list all of them on one page. Chosing Harkins because they contribute 2% (for big openers can go low to 1.8% when lack of theaters come handy) of NA box office with just 30 odd theaters.

https://www.harkins.com/movies/black-widow-87856-3

One thing I noticed that every show has like 2 seats pre-blocked. So we might to remove that.

 

32 Locs 147 shows 20K Approx seats.

 

Website shows 1248 sold but these includes blocked seats in every show, some shows have 2, some 6 but mostly 4. So I removed those, after removing its 712 sold. 35% of those are from 4 theaters in CA, rest are bleh. May be I will check just those.

 

Guess Harkins isn't pre-sales heavy chain, or for that matter even Previews heavy. Unfortunately they don't report hourly numbers, so I have no idea how they do for previews.

 

ATP is $10ish so $7.1K gross on 32 locs. 

 

TL;DR probably not worth tracking it, atleast not worth this early. 

Edited June 15, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[WrathOfHan]

Apparently HWB has previews at my theater tonight without Dolby and IMAX? Only about half the theater's screens are operating today as well. I have no idea what's going on, but here's a presale update for HWB:

 

Tuesday Previews:

6:00: 11/40

7:00: 10/40

Total: 21/40

 

Wednesday:

4:10: 2/107 (+2)

5:00 IMAX: 1/372 (+1)

6:00 Dolby: 9/326 (+3)

7:05: 3/107 (+3)

8:00 IMAX: 0/372 (-)

8:45 Dolby: 2/236 (+2)

Total: 17/1,430 (+11)

 

Preview Comparisons:

 

11% of AQP2 previews (530k)

66% of Cruella previews (1.6M)

91% of ITH Thursday (Assuming ~1M? It'd be nice if WB released dailies past Friday...)

420% of Meet the Blacks 2 previews (~500k? who knows)

 

 

 

Looking at Disney Springs, sales seem ok but light; it's also not getting Dolby until tomorrow there, so Lionsgate must've made last minute preview plans. I highly doubt it goes below 10M for the 5 day with Father's Day, but 15-20M is a good range.

 

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

F9 MTC2 (315 theaters)

 

Previews:

Showtimes: 1854

Sold: 20004/285961

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4327

Sold: 18812/664084

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

100

848

11.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

91

1665

5.47%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
605	27	13037	4.64%	15	64

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 9M

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

100

848

11.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

101

1665

6.07%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
633	28	13251	4.78%	15	67

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 8.66M

 

Just keeps dropping...

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

219

1980

11.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

242

1939

12.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1016	83	21278	4.77%	15	112

 

TLK final count comp: 2.59M; adjusted: 2.09M

TRoS final count comp: 2.4M; adjusted: 2.07M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

244

1980

12.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

256

1939

13.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1101	85	21278	5.17%	15	112

 

TLK final count comp: 2.84M; adjusted: 2.3M

TRoS final count comp: 2.63M; adjusted: 2.27M

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 8.66M

 

Just keeps dropping...

The OK news, I guess, is that if Fast 9 keeps the current pace from the past few days, the Hobbs adjusted comp will be 9.57M with T-6 days to go. But the Quiet Place comp will continue dropping to 8.15M. It all depends just how backloaded presales are. Hobbs went almost 6x from T-6 days to the final count, AQP2 exactly 5x. But note that AQP2 started at 5PM, and Hobbs at 7PM(same as Fast 9), so that probably skews the multiplier a bit in favor of later start times. Of course, there's also the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic(not quite really) presales factor to consider. This should be a good test of that.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/14/2021 at 12:11 PM, Menor said:

Thursday: 

Showtimes: 2707 (+87)

Tickets Sold: 23636/421168 (+4469)

Sales: $293,584

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4771 (+82)

Tickets Sold: 13055/742894 (+2715)

Sales: $108,071

 

BW MTC2 (315 Theaters)

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2763 (+56)

Tickets Sold: 26215/427254 (+2579)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4828 (+57)

Tickets Sold: 14160/750609 (+1105)

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Menor said:

F9 MTC2 (315 theaters)

 

Previews:

Showtimes: 1854

Sold: 20004/285961

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4327

Sold: 18812/664084

that's better than what are limited data suggest. And Friday is even better.

 

Actually Friday seems like really big being 90% of previews

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

that's better than what are limited data suggest. And Friday is even better.

My MTC2 theaters are doing better with Fast 9 than Black Widow, but in my MTC1, F9 is being handily beat by BW.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard Previews PS (300 theaters):

 

Showtimes: 1268

Sold: 6945/179241

 

This was taken in the afternoon. I will try to get final numbers for Tuesday and final Wednesday PS by tonight/tomorrow morning. 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor can you look up SAT and SUN for BW and F9 anytime you feel right. Thanks.