The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

"coming back to Earth" a bit -- but it was doing so well yesterday, it's still an excellent number. Am hoping the 2021 foursome can pass 40m or at least be close by the end of tracking. 

I also thought that at first read but it sold 925.

 

I suppose gotta do 1500+ tomorrow, may be more if review bump is there.

Edited December 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Total Seats Sold Today 

643

Total Seats Sold Today 

925

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

sigh.

 

Fixed.

[Landon1195]

It's still crazy that No Way Home will have surpassed Let There Be Carnage's opening weekend through presales alone tomorrow. 

[fabiopazzo2]

42 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

It's still crazy that No Way Home will have surpassed Let There Be Carnage's opening weekend through presales alone tomorrow. 

NWH could open with a higher gross than all the films released in American this year

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

No acceleration in Sacto, it's dead

 

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,480

Sold - 501,296

Total - 1,189,226

ATP - $15.00

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 7,116

Sold - 514,623

Total - 1,255,352

ATP - $14.95

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 7,116

Sold - 514,623

Total - 1,255,352

ATP - $14.95

After 41k in two days, doing just 13k feels odd.

[ZackM]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

After 41k in two days, doing just 13k feels odd.

That was my thought too, but I don't see any anomalies in my data.  Maybe just a weekend vs weekday thing.

[YM!]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

I enjoyed the first Kingsman and thought the second wasn't as lame as a lot of people thought it was but have pretty much no desire to see this new one. It just seems completely unnecessary. 

How can you finish the second one when the movie is not over?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, ZackM said:

That was my thought too, but I don't see any anomalies in my data.  Maybe just a weekend vs weekday thing.

Weekdays should sell higher. I mean if there isn't any issue in the data then this is actually pretty concerning.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Weekdays should sell higher. I mean if there isn't any issue in the data then this is actually pretty concerning.

 

Monday was always gonna be down b/c of today's Atom deal...today should include the slowdown from Monday and be bonkers (if it's not, then be concerned)...also, what will be concerning is if Wednesday significantly falls off from today...

Edited December 14, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[XXR & Friends]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I also thought that at first read but it sold 925.

 

I suppose gotta do 1500+ tomorrow, may be more if review bump is there.

EG in Sacto did 651 > 1182 from T-3 to T-2. For NWH to have a comparable jump we need 1679 T-2.

 

Hopefully the reviews and early reaction being great will juice things even further than they already are. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Monday was always gonna be down b/c of today's Atom deal...today should include the slowdown from Monday and be bonkers (if it's not, then be concerned)...also, what will be concerning is if Wednesday significantly falls off from today...

That doesn't usually happen with the Atom deals, usually Monday still accelerates from Sunday at a normal level, then Tuesday is massive.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-9	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	33	5,931	392	48	6.61%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,924	407	35	13.92%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	522	54	14.85%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		19	80	12,371	1,321	137	10.68%

 

T-9 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 4.18x (17.14m)

NTTD - 2.51x (13.03m)

Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

SC - 1.35x (11.91m)

Avg -  12.98m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-8	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	33	5,931	426	34	7.18%
		Phoenix	6	24	3,343	443	36	13.25%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	569	47	16.18%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		19	86	12,790	1,438	117	11.24%

 

T-8 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 4.2x (17.24m)

NTTD - 2.44x (12.7m)

Dune - 1.935x (9.87m)

SC - 1.323x (11.64m)

Avg -  12.86m

[Joyous Legion]

After reviews there was a massive wave of fri cancellations to change to a Th seat instead  

[keysersoze123]

38 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 7,116

Sold - 514,623

Total - 1,255,352

ATP - $14.95

Could be that people are looking for better seats. If possible check Sunday. I am expecting great Sunday hold. 

[ZackM]

I'm about to start a Saturday run.  Should have just enough time to squeeze in a Sunday run before I need to start my Thursday run.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-3	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	159	23,064	7,293	328	31.62%
		Phoenix	7	162	21,103	9,950	398	47.15%
		Raleigh	8	97	10,939	6,697	339	61.22%
	Spider-Man Total		22	418	55,106	23,940	1,065	43.44%

 

T-3 increase % comps

 

Spider - 4.66%

BW - 5.67%

SC - 16.25%

Eternals - 7.61%

 

Quick check-in on T-3 sales comps...

 

BW  - 6.69x (88.25m)

SC -  13.18x (115.94m)

Eternals - 9.01x (85.56m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.25x (42.92m)

SC -  5.84x (51.39m)

Eternals - 4.46 (42.34m)

 

Average projected forecast = 52.14m

 

 

Here's a sample of the new sales by day for the Marvel movies in my areas.  With all of the deals kicking off and reviews dropping maybe I'll have to zoom out by Wednesday.  (For reference, "1" in the chart is new sales between preview morning and T-1 hour)

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $315,559 (13.18 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

I'm starting to wonder if this will get as low as BW in overall ATP. 

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	20,805	86.96%	$281,768.26	13.54
	Y	3,119	13.04%	$33,591.55	10.77

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	8,038	33.60%	$130,053.87	16.18
	Standard	15,886	66.40%	$185,305.94	11.66

 

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	13,886	58.04%	$176,985.65	12.75
	Cinemark	5,827	24.36%	$83,796.38	14.38
	CMX	28	0.12%	$419.72	14.99
	Regal	3,612	15.10%	$48,073.81	13.31
	RoadHouse	356	1.49%	$3,773.00	10.60
	Sun-Ray	215	0.90%	$2,311.25	10.75

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-2	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	159	23,064	7,780	487	33.73%
		Phoenix	7	170	21,656	10,655	705	49.20%
		Raleigh	8	104	11,302	7,169	472	63.43%
	Spider-Man Total		22	433	56,022	25,604	1,664	45.70%

 

We're very close to all three markets passing BW T-1 hour total sales.  

 

T-2 increase % comps

 

Spider - 6.95%

BW - 14.1%

SC - 15.3%

Eternals - 13.51%

 

Quick check-in on T-2 sales comps...

 

BW  - 6.27x (82.71m)

SC -  12.22x (107.55m)

Eternals - 8.49x (80.62m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.48x (45.91m)

SC -  6.25x (54.97m)

Eternals - 4.77x (45.28m)

 

Average projected forecast =

Spoiler

62.49m! 

 

 

I wasn't expecting to have to expand my bounds after one day.  The comps all had their final down day coming up, but with the sales happening today, I don't know if that will happen for Spider-Man.  One thing I want to mention again (and probably should leave in every day instead of mentioning it once a week) is that Jacksonville added a new Cinemark between Shang-Chi and Eternals.  It shouldn't throw off the % change comps, but it adds capacity and sales.

 

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $335,405 (13.10 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

I'm starting to wonder if this will get as low as BW in overall ATP. 

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	22,258	86.99%	$299,504.11	13.46
	Y	3,330	13.01%	$35,702.06	10.72

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	8,304	32.45%	$134,337.10	16.18
	Standard	17,284	67.55%	$200,869.07	11.62

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	14,630	57.18%	$185,080.13	12.65
	Cinemark	6,207	24.26%	$89,110.35	14.36
	CMX	32	0.13%	$479.68	14.99
	Regal	3,976	15.54%	$52,682.68	13.25
	RoadHouse	521	2.04%	$5,466.83	10.49
	Sun-Ray	222	0.87%	$2,386.50	10.75

 

 

Here's a comparison of sales % by theater.  Comps are using the 1 hour before previews counts.  I thought this was pretty interesting - despite the extra Cinemark, they are accounting for a lower percent of sales than the previous three Marvel films.  AMCs are really showing up for this one.  I'm not sure why the totals aren't lining up exactly between the last two tables, but the difference is negligible. 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I'm about to start a Saturday run.  Should have just enough time to squeeze in a Sunday run before I need to start my Thursday run.

Do Thursday in night time. In final days those last 5-6 hours in evening make big difference. Start Thursday probably at 7-8PM PST.