The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Fine I'll do one more post-

http://www.jurassicmainframe.com/

https://twitter.com/JurassicOutpost

Both are old Jurassic Park forums, they just added some Jurassic World topics.

 

Yeah, let's resume Box Office Tracking discussion.

[JB33]

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

I'll add it. Won't be hard to count 12 tickets. 

Dude, you can't just start tracking after the film's theatrical run.

 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

I swear that every time I come to this topic, there's someone claiming that people shouldn't be worried about weak presales, because the movie will have walkup to help. In 90% of the times, these walkup never show up.  

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

I swear that every time I come to this topic, there's someone claiming that people shouldn't be worried about weak presales, because the movie will have walkup to help. In 90% of the times, these walkup never show up.  

 

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

It's funny you mention that.  I was thinking earlier today that we might want to implement a moratorium on the phrase "walkup based" in this thread for ANY movie that hadn't clearly already established it yet in a franchise/genre.

 

[Minnale101]

Aladdin to me seems like the most mature Disney movie that should late teens and millennials more than kids 

 

the story is much romantic based than anything else. 

 

So should have pre sales 

 

Walk ups maybe never appear ask detective pikachu lol 

[cdsacken]

Aladdin absolutely can do very poorly but I hope it doesn't.

[Mulder]

Aladdin's pre-sales are very worrying because the Disney remake movies are absolutely massively pre-sale based. Look at BATB, Dumbo, Mary Poppins Returns etc etc. Not to mention like @Minnale101 said, this is going to be more female and teen/older audiences based on nostalgia. This should absolutely be on BATB's level pre-sales wise if this was going to be huge.

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Aladdin's pre-sales are very worrying because the Disney remake movies are absolutely massively pre-sale based. Look at BATB, Dumbo, Mary Poppins Returns etc etc. Not to mention like @Minnale101 said, this is going to be more female and teen/older audiences based on nostalgia. This should absolutely be on BATB's level pre-sales wise if this was going to be huge.

Especially if the review embargo is only 2 days before release and Disney is thinking the movie will review badly and don’t wanna affect pre sales before release 

 

if you are hoping a movie with bad reviews is walk up friendly then I don’t know what to say 

 

who knows aladdin maybe reviewed amazingly and kids come in droves 

 

 

[Mulder]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

Especially if the review embargo is only 2 days before release and Disney is thinking the movie will review badly and don’t wanna affect pre sales before release 

 

if you are hoping a movie with bad reviews is walk up friendly then I don’t know what to say 

 

who knows aladdin maybe reviewed amazingly and kids come in droves 

 

 

Yeah bad reviews will absolutely make a lot of people think twice. I mean Aladdin literally lost the most seats I've seen get lost for a movie.

[Porthos]

Am I the only one here who think Aladdin will do just decent business for its OW?  That is, neither bombing nor breaking out?  Though I suppose it depends on how we define 'bomb' here, I guess.  Open to persuasion on what would be 'bomb' level when it comes to the OW.

 

I admit I've had basement floor low expectations ever since the bad buzz started at last year's CinemaCon which was compounded by the reactions to the first trailer.   I certainly wasn't expecting any sort of BatB level of pre-sales, that's for sure.

 

So I'm not surprised at the level of pre-sales I'm seeing.  What I am interested in seeing how it plays in the traditional ramp-up period just before release.

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Am I the only one here who think Aladdin will do just decent business for its OW?  That is, neither bombing nor breaking out?  Though I suppose it depends on how we define 'bomb' here, I guess.  Open to persuasion on what would be 'bomb' level when it comes to the OW.

 

I admit I've had basement floor low expectations ever since the bad buzz started at last year's CinemaCon which was compounded by the reactions to the first trailer.   I certainly wasn't expecting any sort of BatB level of pre-sales, that's for sure.

 

So I'm not surprised at the level of pre-sales I'm seeing.  What I am interested in seeing how it plays in the traditional ramp-up period just before release.

I'm thinking 60-70 for the three day which for a 170+ movie isn't great. Especially if it has bad legs like I'm thinking it will.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Am I the only one here who think Aladdin will do just decent business for its OW?  That is, neither bombing nor breaking out?  Though I suppose it depends on how we define 'bomb' here, I guess.  Open to persuasion on what would be 'bomb' level when it comes to the OW.

 

I admit I've had basement floor low expectations ever since the bad buzz started at last year's CinemaCon which was compounded by the reactions to the first trailer.   I certainly wasn't expecting any sort of BatB level of pre-sales, that's for sure.

 

So I'm not surprised at the level of pre-sales I'm seeing.  What I am interested in seeing how it plays in the traditional ramp-up period just before release.

I'm not sure what decent is? It costs a lot of money and seems like it needs to make at the very least 550 million WW to be decent.

 

Not sure it's gonna reach that. Could be decent for OW and bad late I guess.

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I'm thinking 60-70 for the three day which for a 170+ movie isn't great. Especially if it has bad legs like I'm thinking it will.

Though actually I'm a fraud, the OW wouldn't be bad. It's just not a good sign when it's already shaping up to have bad legs.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I'm thinking 60-70 for the three day which for a 170+ movie isn't great. Especially if it has bad legs like I'm thinking it will.

 

11 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I'm not sure what decent is? It costs a lot of money and seems like it needs to make at the very least 550 million WW to be decent.

 

Not sure it's gonna reach that. Could be decent for OW and bad late I guess.

Well, this is kinda why I restricted it to OW.  Heck, I actually wanted to restrict it to opening night, as I was just commenting about pre-sales, but I figured that would be a bit too much.

 

But I also have a stronger threshold for 'bomb', I suppose.

 

'Disappointing'?  Yeah, that'd I'd absolutely agree with.  'Flop'?  Works for me too.  

 

I suppose I am kinda eyeballing an 8m Thur right now, if I just base it on local numbers (it's actually pacing for 8.5m off my Pika comp, but I'm adjusting downward for over-performance/trendline regression). JW2 comes in at 7.9m at the moment, FWIW (but that's gonna take off on its final four days, so be wary there).

 

If we use a 9x to 10x off of 8m, I get 72-80m three day (and Sunday should have less of a drop due to Mon being a holiday).  

 

I guess I'm 'okay' with that?  Though if it drops much below 70m like Mulder thinks, then I suppose I'd start shifting to the bomb range myself.

Edited May 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Stewart]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Open to persuasion on what would be 'bomb' level when it comes to the OW.

I would say under Pika is a minor bomb, anything near Dumbo is an utter flop.

[cax16]

Godzilla has a 4:40pm showtime for preview night. All those families rushing after school to go see KOM!!! 

 

In all seriousness though, Pikachu didn’t have that third showtime, so I’m not sure if this is tracking better or it’s just cause by that time EG won’t be as big. 

[cdsacken]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Well, this is kinda why I restricted it to OW.  Heck, I actually wanted to restrict it to opening night, as I was just commenting about pre-sales, but I figured that would be a bit too much.

 

But I also have a stronger threshold for 'bomb', I suppose.

 

'Disappointing'?  Yeah, that'd I'd absolutely agree with.  'Flop'?  Works for me too.  

 

I suppose I am kinda eyeballing an 8m Thur right now, if I just base it on local numbers (it's actually pacing for 8.5m off my Pika comp, but I'm adjusting downward for over-performance/trendline regression). JW2 comes in at 7.9m at the moment, FWIW (but that's gonna take off on its final four days, so be wary there).

 

If we use a 9x to 10x off of 8m, I get 72-80m three day (and Sunday should have less of a drop due to it being a holiday).  

 

I guess I'm 'okay' with that?  Though if it drops much below 70m like Mulder thinks, then I suppose I'd start shifting to the bomb range myself.

Bomb for OW is Dumbo numbers even 50 million. 60 is disappointing for 3 day, 70 is decent (within tracking). Honestly I don't see above it as a possibility unless reviews are gonna be great (imo unlikely).

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, this is kinda why I restricted it to OW.  Heck, I actually wanted to restrict it to opening night, as I was just commenting about pre-sales, but I figured that would be a bit too much.

 

But I also have a stronger threshold for 'bomb', I suppose.

 

'Disappointing'?  Yeah, that'd I'd absolutely agree with.  'Flop'?  Works for me too.  

 

I suppose I am kinda eyeballing an 8m Thur right now, if I just base it on local numbers (it's actually pacing for 8.5m off my Pika comp, but I'm adjusting downward for over-performance/trendline regression). JW2 comes in at 7.9m at the moment, FWIW (but that's gonna take off on its final four days, so be wary there).

 

If we use a 9x to 10x off of 8m, I get 72-80m three day (and Sunday should have less of a drop due to it being a holiday).  

 

I guess I'm 'okay' with that?  Though if it drops much below 70m like Mulder thinks, then I suppose I'd start shifting to the bomb range myself.

BOP has it at 67 for the OW rn and the three day tracking has it at 60-70. This would be way below Solo with what'll imo be way worse legs then Solo had.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, cax16 said:

Godzilla has a 4:40pm showtime for preview night. All those families rushing after school to go see KOM!!! 

 

In all seriousness though, Pikachu didn’t have that third showtime, so I’m not sure if this is tracking better or it’s just cause by that time EG won’t be as big. 

Ok you joke but for some crazy reason the 4:00 IMAX showing for KoTM at my theater is doing better then Shazam and Pikachu's 4 PM shows were doing at this point in time by...a lot.

[cax16]

Just now, Mulder said:

Ok you joke but for some crazy reason the 4:00 IMAX showing for KoTM at my theater is doing better then Shazam and Pikachu's 4 PM shows were doing at this point in time by...a lot.

Lol, I just thought it was funny my theatre didn’t have the 4pm Pikachu show, it also didn’t have one for Shazam, but does for this.