The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

The Conservation of Optimism between myself and @Mulder seems to be a universal law.  

 

===

 

Can't call it anything other than a good day locally for Aladdin.  Not great.  Not outstanding.  But good?  Yep.  And it needed it after yesterday. 

 

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

The Conservation of Optimism between myself and @Mulder seems to be a universal law.  

 

===

 

Can't call it anything other than a good day locally for Aladdin.  Not great.  Not outstanding.  But good?  Yep.  And it needed it after yesterday. 

 

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It fell below John Wick and Pikachu at this stage it's less a take and more what in the hell is going on. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

So Aladdin is doing well on Fandango but I'm seeing mixed reports here from theaters? Feel like we're missing something.

 

I decided to check my local theater and Aladdin has sold 13 seats for a preview, but since I've never counted them before I have no comparison with other openers. You guys may have inspired me to start keeping track. 😁

Spoiler

Would have gone with Toy Story, but I thought this gif more accurately reflected BOZ's station in life.

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It fell below John Wick and Pikachu at this stage it's less a take and more what in the hell is going on. 

 

===

 

I had a pretty good handle on both Pika Pika and Wick 3 at this stage in the game.  But Aladdin?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Cooper Legion]

The occam’s razoriest explanation currently seems to me that people in Mulder’s area are disproportionately disinterested in Aladdin. As to why this would be the case... 🤷‍♂️    

 

Well, all will be clear in like 70 hours.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The occam’s razoriest explanation currently seems to me that people in Mulder’s area are disproportionately disinterested in Aladdin. As to why this would be the case... 🤷‍♂️    

 

Well, all will be clear in like 70 hours.

For what it's worth, Aladdin is running at around 1.2x Wick 3 in Sacramento right now.  Aladdin has a lot more showtimes/seats, but I imagine that's pretty reflective of the picture nationwide as well. 

[Eric Prime]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Blockers

504

1,106

2,931

Truth Or Dare

385

760

2,133

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Hereditary

659

1,178

3,181

Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222

The Meg

1,539

2,944

6,723

16,202

Happytime Murders

382

*488

1,954

5,602

Predator

1,295

2,476

4,545

13,063

A Simple Favor

564

2,126

4,410

10,381

Nutcracker

1,659

1,949

2,567

5,518

Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

The Curse of La Llorona

896

1,159

2,704

8,279

The Hustle	485	1,012	2,316	3,024
Pokemon Detective Pikachu	5,061	7,653	13,177	23,309

Aladdin	9,948	12,038	21,152
Brightburn	554	858	1,596
Booksmart	208	448	1,014
*4pm-12am

 

Laddy

Wednesday before release

97% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (60.1M)

74% of Solo (62.6M)

214% of Spider-Verse (75.9M)

246% of Lego 2 (83.9M)

160% of Detective Pikachu (87.3M)

163% of Dragon 3 (90M)

395% of Christopher Robin (97.1M)

54% of Incredibles 2 (98.2M)

229% of Dumbo (105.5M)

190% of Ant-Man 2 (144.4M)

824% of Nutcracker (167.7M)

 

Last 7 Days (8-2)

74% of Solo (62.1M)

50% of Incredibles 2 (91.3M)

280% of Lego 2 (95.6M)

192% of Dragon 3 (105.5M)

263% of Dumbo (120.9M)

 

Day 18-2

50% of Incredibles 2 (91.8M)

289% of Lego 2 (98.8M)

192% of Dragon 3 (105.6M)

252% of Dumbo (116.1M)

 

So a couple comps saw a slight increase (Incredibles in particular, which, again, is probably the best comp to use), but the majority saw a decrease. But again, all the numbers seem respectable, but with terrible theater reports and mixed critical reception...there's still room for concern.

 

 

Brightburn

Wednesday

50% of Hereditary (6.8M)

35% of The Predator (8.6M)

100% of Overlord (10.2M)

24% of The Meg (10.8M)

188% of The Prodigy (11M)

75% of Truth or Dare (14M)

59% of La Llorona (15.5M)

 

Almost all of these comps saw huge decreases too. Looks like we're in for a bad weekend.

 

Booksmart

Wednesday

23% of A Simple Favor (3.7M)

52% of Happytime Murders (4.9M)

44% of The Hustle (5.7M)

35% of Blockers (7.1M)

65% of Spy Who Dumped Me (7.9M)

70% of Tag (10.5M)

 

Megan Ellison needs to be stopped.

[Mulder]

Either my theater's just being incredibly weird, or there's something incredibly wrong with Aladdin.

[DAJK]

My theatre has only sold 2 tickets for tomorrow. Two!!!

[Cap]

Aladdin - Rocketman - Godzilla - Dark Phoenix - Pets 2

Thursday Previews

 

Lincoln Square 13
	5.8	5.10	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.20	5.22	Total	%	+Sold	+Seats
Aladdin	388	412	481	543	545	627	737	1895	38.90%	110	0
Rocketman	122	133	150	160	182	197	205	1276	16.07%	8	684
Godzilla	--	434	567	618	646	695	710	2124	33.43%	15	0
Dark Phoenix	--	--	479	612	694	741	790	2034	38.84%	39	480
Pets 2	--	--	--	--	9	9	9	297	3.03%	0	0

• Rocketman added its STD showings
• Dark Phoenix added a 12AM IMAX
• Aladdin sold 48 yesterday, 62 today.  I am too tired, but I have thoughts on this more.

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	5.8	5.1	5.13	5.15	5.17	5.2	5.22	Total	%	+ Sold
Aladdin	6	6	11	16	22	36	55	1336	4.12%	19
Rocketman	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	1160	0.34%	0
Godzilla	—	—	15	22	26	34	40	1316	3.04%	6
Dark Phoenix	—	—	0	2	2	3	3	962	0.31%	0

• Pros: Aladdin's selling; Cons: It's selling nuttin'.  So, 
  

 

[Mulder]

Aladdin's below KoTM on it's final day at Lincoln Square? Good god the upper east coast is just rejecting it entirely.

[McClintonforThree]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Aladdin's below KoTM on it's final day at Lincoln Square? Good god the upper east coast is just rejecting it entirely.

Aladdin is behind JW3 in both the giant theaters in my area (Jacksonville FL), and KOTM is outselling it at this time last week at both theaters as well.

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Aladdin's below KoTM on it's final day at Lincoln Square? Good god the upper east coast is just rejecting it entirely.

Again, Dark Phoenix has the Fan Event IMAX showing that is 95% sold out.  It's boosting the numbers for sure.  But yeah, I did those numbers like 3 times to double check.  I will do a final count around 4PM tonight.

[Tentatek]

Is Disney buying tickets or??

[Porthos]

Just now, Tentatek said:

Is Disney buying tickets??

No.

[Porthos]

Here's what I'm willing to believe/bet on Aladdin.  I think it is performing very well in some areas of the country and very poorly in others.  We've seen this before with other movies, so it's not unheard of.

 

Is Sacramento an over-performing area?  Maybe!  I really don't know. But it doesn't seem too dissimilar with Fandango, which I'm kinda using as a tie-breaker.  But, sure, I could see us over-performing by some percentage.  And before anyone brings up the Cali angle, from what I could tell @FlashMaster659's theater in Ontario, California was doing pretty lousy as well.

 

Looking at my own data and trends, I don't think 7.25m +/- .3m is that unlikely.  If Sacto is right.    But I am overdue for a FB2 sized miss, so if I have one, I have one.  Can't really ask for anything else than that.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Porthos

[dakus]

I wish I actually saved the numbers I jotted down for Pikachu earlier, but I can definitely say at a glance that Aladdin is at most on par with Pikachu around the Vancouver area for Thursday. In many theatres its actually lagging a fair bit behind.

 

I'm curious to see where all the Fandango tickets are going. Is one region about to massively overperform or something?

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by dakus

[Nova]

It most likely is that some areas are not as big on it as others. I did a check for FSS and it’s not doing any better than what Pikachu did at my theater over the course of those days. And my theater isn’t giving it the amount of screens that Pikachu got on FSS or on Thursday. I don’t know if it’s cause it’s MDW and my theater wants to have a variety of movies playing or if they’re just not feeling the sales for it at the theater and thus are giving holdovers the screens instead. 

 

Maybe its it’s an East Coast thing since Mulder, Captainwondyful and I are reporting from theaters over there. I don’t know. But I guess we will find out soon enough. 

[cax16]

Aladdin (May 19th update)

 

7:30 - 65/390

10:30 - 5/390

 

Aladdin (May 23rd first update)

 

7:30 - 96/390

10:30 - 27/390

 

 

I’ll update this again later before the first showing begins.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Going to track some summer movies. Just preview night though.

 

Cineplex - Scotiabank Montreal

 

ALADDIN - THURSDAY MAY 23 (REGULAR 3D)

 

7:50pm - 117/390

10:50pm - 4/390

 

GODZILLA - THURSDAY MAY 30 (IMAX)

 

4:00pm - 13/343

7:00pm - 107/343

10:00pm - 20/343

 

DARK PHOENIX - THURSDAY JUNE 6 (IMAX - Fan Event)

 

6:00pm - 48/343

9:00pm - 37/343

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions