The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Interesting parallels for Incredibles 2. Many were forecasting 140+ some 150+ for it right before it premiered for OW. 

yeah first $120 than $140 later on $150 M ... lol 

 

but its always tough to predict OW of animated films .. coz they generally depends on walkups ..

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

yeah first $120 than $140 later on $150 M ... lol 

 

but its always tough to predict OW of animated films .. coz they generally depends on walkups ..

Agreed. I will go 135-200 to be safe lol

[Eric Duncan]

9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

TS4 - 3m

CP - 104k

A - 34k

 

ACH - 63k

 

FFH - 2.9m

 

 

For Toy Story comps, Aladdin did 1.2M 10 days before release, while Pikachu did 1.5M at the same point in time.

 

As for FFH, Captain Marvel did about 5.4M 10 days before release.

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

For Toy Story comps, Aladdin did 1.2M 10 days before release, while Pikachu did 1.5M at the same point in time.

 

As for FFH, Captain Marvel did about 5.4M 10 days before release.

And any Child’s Play comps?

[Sunny Max]

22 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Agreed. I will go 135-200 to be safe lol

  LOL  

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

And any Child’s Play comps?

Happy Death Day 2U did 124K one day before release.

[keysersoze123]

Great to see @Deep Wang posting numbers. That seems to mimic overall Fandango PS when you compare Spidey with Cap Marvel. I am expecting Spidey to hit around 3.5m similar point to data we received back in Feb.

 

We could see Spidey burst out after this weekend. Cap Marvel has crazy start faster than BP but slowed down closer to release. Spidey is showing similar pattern. If I have to guess i would stick to 170m over 6 days. but it could go either direction. Let us wait and watch.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

TS4 - 3m

 

On 6/13/2018 at 7:01 AM, Deep Wang said:

Well, no idea about comps, but I2 was at 4m yesterday.  Seems alright for an animated movie?

"4m yesterday" would be Monday Tuesday of I2's release week.  Presuming the number Deep Wang has was either right now or some point yesterday, seems like good for TS4.  Behind I2 but not hugely behind.  And that's WITHOUT Monday sales.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

"4m yesterday" would be Monday of I2's release week.  Presuming the number Deep Wang has was either right now or some point yesterday, seems like good for TS4.  Behind I2 but not hugely behind. 

So TS4 is more like 75% of I2 on Wang's numbers vs 60% on Fandango. Pretty good as those are more reliable and larger scale

Edited June 17, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

"4m yesterday" would be Monday of I2's release week.  Presuming the number Deep Wang has was either right now or some point yesterday, seems like good for TS4.  Behind I2 but not hugely behind. 

That is great. So 150m OW looks good at this point and that would be awesome. Let us not forget most folks were downbeat on this movie(just look at predictions couple of months back). With kind of reactions its seeing, its gonna make a run for 500m domestic.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

So TS4 is more like 75% of I2 on Wang's numbers vs 60% on Fandango. Pretty good as those are more reliable and larger scale

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is great. So 150m OW looks good at this point and that would be awesome. Let us not forget most folks were downbeat on this movie(just look at predictions couple of months back). With kind of reactions its seeing, its gonna make a run for 500m domestic.

Actually messed up. @Deep Wang posted that on the Wednesday of release week, meaning that 4m was Tuesday numbers. I've gone ahead and edited my post.

 

Now I do want to caution that number is all pre-sales, so if TS4 has a large number of Discount Tuesday sales, it could be somewhat backloaded.

 

Just something to think of.

 

Regardless, TS4 is in very good shape.  Just not record breaking shape.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Porthos

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Actually messed up. @Deep Wang posted that on the Wednesday of release week, meaning that 4m was Tuesday numbers. I've gone ahead and edited my post.

 

Now I do want to caution that number is all pre-sales, so if TS4 has a large number of DIscount Tuesday sales, it could be pretty backloaded.

 

Just something to think of.

 

Regardless, TS4 is in very good shape.  Just not record breaking shape.

So looking even better for TS4 then

[Sunny Max]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

So TS4 is more like 75% of I2 on Wang's numbers vs 60% on Fandango. Pretty good as those are more reliable and larger scale

Does Fandango not cover all the areas ???

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

So looking even better for TS4 then

yeah very good for TS4 ... but not record breaking ..

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Does Fandango not cover all the areas ???

It does (well except for theaters that aren't signed up with Fandango).  But it's still a relative number based on a subset of all tickets sold through its platform.

 

Deep Wang's numbers, however, are absolute sales from a Major Theater Chain.

 

Basically they give complementary info.  DW, when he has it, gives the overlook of all sales from a single chain while Fandango provides relative data, if opaquely.  But since DW's is a hard number it can be a better data point when using it to compare to past films. 

 

Still have to factor in things like sales beyond the OW as well as possible over/under-performance at the MTC.  But generally speaking, it's a very valuable piece of info.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Porthos said:

It does (well except for theaters that aren't signed up with Fandango).  But it's still a relative number based on a subset of all tickets sold.

 

Deep Wang's numbers, however, are absolute sales from a Major Theater Chain.

 

Basically they give complementary info.  DW, when he has it, gives the overlook of all sales from a single chain while Fandango provides relative data, if opaquely.  But since DW's is a hard number it can be a better data point when using it to compare to past films. 

got it.   thank you 

[FlashMaster659]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It does (well except for theaters that aren't signed up with Fandango).  But it's still a relative number based on a subset of all tickets sold through its platform.

 

Deep Wang's numbers, however, are absolute sales from a Major Theater Chain.

 

Basically they give complementary info.  DW, when he has it, gives the overlook of all sales from a single chain while Fandango provides relative data, if opaquely.  But since DW's is a hard number it can be a better data point when using it to compare to past films. 

 

Still have to factor in things like sales beyond the OW as well as possible over/under-performance at the MTC.  But generally speaking, it's a very valuable piece of info.

This has probably been answered but what does that mean specifically?

[Menor the Destroyer]

I do think one part of the discrepancy between the I2/TS4 ratio for Fandango and the MTC is discount Tuesday. Doing a quick check just now TS4's numbers for Tuesday as of early this morning (has disappeared from the report page now) were actually greater than I2's at the same point. If that was true for all of the later weekdays, it might explain some of the discrepancy.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

This has probably been answered but what does that mean specifically?

Fandango has X number of tickets sold at any one time.  These are further grouped into sets of tickets purchased at any one time.  For instance, a person buying one ticket in a purchase versus someone buying five tickets at a single purchase.

 

This would be then Y number of sets of tickets sold at any one time.

 

What Pulse does is take a sampling of all sets of ticket sold in a 15 minute time period and displays it, capping at 1000 sets of sampled tickets displayed.  Call that Z number of sets sampled and displayed.

 

So we have a potentially caped sampling of all sets of ticket purchases made.  Thus what is displayed on Pulse is an unknown subset of all sets of ticket purchases made on the platform.

 

It is a consistently relative sampling?  Who knows.  We like to think so on this thread.  But without seeing the algorithm used to make the sampling, we can't know for sure.

 

That's how I understand it all, at least.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Fandango has X number of tickets sold at any one time.  These are further grouped into sets of tickets purchased at any one time.  For instance, a person buying one ticket in a purchase versus someone buying five tickets at a single purchase.

 

This would be then Y number of sets of tickets sold at any one time.

 

What Pulse does is take a sampling of all sets of ticket sold in a 15 minute time period and displays it, capping at 1000 sets of sampled tickets displayed.  Call that Z number of sets displayed.

 

So we have a potentially caped sampling of all sets of ticket purchases made.  Thus what is displayed on Pulse is an unknown subset of all sets of ticket purchases made on the platform.

 

It is a consistently relative sampling?  Who knows.  We like to think so on this thread.  But without seeing the algorithm used to make the sampling, we can't know for sure.

 

That's how I understand it all, at least.

Pretty sure it is mostly relative. After all I've been able to predict dailies based on Pulse numbers with reasonable accuracy. It's only when you get monsters like Endgame that the capping becomes a significant issue. That's why this large of a discrepancy between Pulse and Wang's numbers is quite odd.