The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:15pm - 1:05pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	149	11387	16865	32.48%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night:         1

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:            881

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.0680x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu mid-day of premiere

1.7722x as many tickets sold as Aladdin mid-day of premiere

2.2958x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters mid-day of premiere

 

T-0 Mid-day:

Pika       392 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |    7619/10258 seats left     |  25.80% sold]

Aladdin  585 tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings |  10762/13853 seats left    |  22.31% sold]

KotM     398 tickets sold [0 sellouts/125 showings |  13097/15483 seats left    |  15.41% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

0.9964x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom mid-day of premiere

1.3960x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp mid-day of premiere     

1.4401x as many tickets sold as Venom mid-day of premiere     

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-0 Mid-day:

JW2            761 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |    8762/13715 seats left  | 36.11% sold]

AM&tW       897 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |   7361/10896 seats left  | 32.44% sold]

TS4 (JW)     779 tickets sold [2 sellouts/149 showings  |   9699/14634 seats left  | 33.72% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Venom       725 tickets sold [0 sellouts/127 showings |    9748/13229 seats left  | 26.31% sold]

TS4 (V)       809 tickets sold [2 sellouts/149 showings |  10441/15454 seats left  | 32.44% sold]

TS4 (V) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom.

[Tinalera]

Thursday june 20 london ontario

Toy Story 4

Silvercity

6 shows 3 screens ( 1 AVX, 1 IMAX, 1 Recliner)

AVX
600 77/135(+40)
840 27/135 (+9)

IMAX
7PM 52/321(+9)
940 11/321(+2)

Recliner
630 32/111(+12)
910 6/111

Westmount

4 shows 2 screens (1 VIP 1 AVX)

VIP
630 9/63(+6)
930 10/63 (+0)
AVX 
645 52/173(+11)
925 2/173

[XXR vs XXR]

Toy Story 4 — Previews — AMC Willowbrook 24 

 

14 show times, 822 tickets sold out of 1988 available (41.35%)

 

 

 

This is about 193% higher than Detective Pikachu and 65% of Captain Marvel. All things considered, I’m putting in my previews estimate at $13.8 million for tonight. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Sunny Max]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Toy Story 4 — Previews — AMC Willowbrook 24 

 

14 show times, 822 tickets sold out of 1988 available (41.35%)

 

 

 

This is about 193% higher than Detective Pikachu and 65% of Captain Marvel. All things considered, I’m putting in my previews estimate at $13.8 million for tonight. 

$13 To $14 M ... 

[cdsacken]

so all that panic about 10-11m, 120m was for nothing as expected.

 

Even if it's 13 I still say 150 is happening.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

so all that panic about 10-11m, 120m was for nothing as expected.

 

Even if it's 13 I still say 150 is happening.

$153 M ...  

 

 

[cdsacken]

Sounds good to me.

[FlashMaster659]

BOM predicting $165M OW for TS4.

 

They also say Disney is forecasting $140M+.

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

BOM predicting $165M OW for TS4.

 

They also say Disney is forecasting $140M+.

So roughly $150 m+ ...  

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

so all that panic about [] was for nothing.

BOT Gonna BOT.

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BOT Gonna BOT.

15m+ or bust. Anything lower is a disaster.

 

Anyway we don’t even have any feedback on how walk ins are. There are enough available seats for last minute sneak in. So let us wait for early early update from deadline and freak out again.

 

[ThomasNicole]

Disney final tracking is + $ 140M and we all know their history at lowballing their numbers (according to BOM).

 

Honestly, i’ll be shocked if it makes less than $ 130M, every single report are tracking it higher including Disney.

 

 

[Sunny Max]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Disney final tracking is + $ 140M and we all know their history at lowballing their numbers (according to BOM).

 

Honestly, i’ll be shocked if it makes less than $ 130M, every single report are tracking it higher including Disney.

 

 

yeah .. box office report predict $153 M ....

 

so roughly we are getting $140 To $150 M OW ... 

[XXR vs XXR]

On 6/7/2019 at 6:29 PM, VenomXXR said:

Current Predictions for Various Opening Weekends, 2019 - As of June 7

 

 

Toy Story 4: $152 million 

Spider-Man FFH: $198 million (6 day)

 

The Lion King: $224 million 

Hobbs & Shaw: $91 million 

It - Chapter 2: $116 million 

Joker: $77 million 

 

Maleficent 2: $51 million 

 

Terminator - Dark Fate: $39 million 

Frozen 2: $167 million

 

Star Wars - TROS: $231 million

 

Just want to recall my prediction from 2 weeks ago....

[Menor the Destroyer]

Excellent pace on Pulse the last few hours. It is definitely getting walk in business. Updating my projection from 12 to 13, could go higher if it continues to be this strong.

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Excellent pace on Pulse the last few hours. It is definitely getting walk in business. Updating my projection from 12 to 13, could go higher if it continues to be this strong.

Wonderful news ..   

[Deja23]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Excellent pace on Pulse the last few hours. It is definitely getting walk in business. Updating my projection from 12 to 13, could go higher if it continues to be this strong.

I might be missing the obvious here, but how do you determine walk up business via Pulse? Isn’t it strictly online sales while walk ups are tickets bought in the theater? Or are you basing it on how many tickets are sold after the first preview showing starts?

[Biggestgeekever]

I'm gonna go with $14M to $15M. The general vibe really does remind me of Jurassic World 2 and that hit $15.3M, and funnily enough, you have to go all the way back to TDKR to find a $140M+ opener to release with as many schools out as TS4 benefits from. So I think it is a pretty good reference point.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

I might be missing the obvious here, but how do you determine walk up business via Pulse? Isn’t it strictly online sales while walk ups are tickets bought in the theater? Or are you basing it on how many tickets are sold after the first preview showing starts?

its a guess based on Pulse trends. But it will be confirmed soon. You guys are very hard on those providing perceptions 🙂

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I'm gonna go with $14M to $15M. The general vibe really does remind me of Jurassic World 2 and that hit $15.3M, and funnily enough, you have to go all the way back to TDKR to find a $140M+ opener to release with as many schools out as TS4 benefits from. So I think it is a pretty good reference point.

I predicted that few hours back. This has insane reviews, month full of BO disappointments and a franchise that is almost universally beloved. That is a recipe for breakout bigger than what even the PS is calling out for.

 

very few predicted JW to break Avengers OW even after we got preview numbers. Again very few thought I2 to open to 185 even close to release.

Edited June 20, 2019 by keysersoze123