The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, superduperm said:

If it does $14M in previews it's getting at least $160M IMO.

 yes .. with $14 M previews .. movie will get $160 M in OW 

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:50pm - 5:40pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	156	10656	17362	38.62%

 

 

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

I will take JW 2 comp. 6600 odd tickets sold against 6300 of JW2. That gives a good chance of 14-15mn.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Setting my guess at 12.5 million for now.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

So basically it'll be somewhere in the 12-14 range? Hoping for 14.

I really hate to be channeling Deadline, but that's what Sacramento is saying. Still, only one market yadda yadda yadda.

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

14

50.1

50.5

36.6

 

151.2

14

50

55

45

[Legion Again]

 

Stickin’ with my Sunday premonition.

On 6/16/2019 at 9:51 PM, Thanos Legion said:

13x13 would be nice

 

[cdsacken]

169 would be incredible.

 

Anything above 150 is great. Gimme 13.9, just because Venom said 13.8.  hmm or $1.

Edited June 21, 2019 by cdsacken

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

On 6/19/2019 at 8:41 AM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Didn't update last week because there was barely any movement but it looks better now. Looking forward to seeing the final totals later tonight.

 

TOY STORY 4 - THURSDAY JUNE 20

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 113/343

9:45pm - 31/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 52/390

9:15pm - 6/390

FINAL UPDATE FOR TOY STORY 4

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 210/343

9:45pm - 129/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 123/390

9:15pm - 58/390

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Question: When you guys do comps for your theaters you just compare the tickets sold? I want to compare Toy Story to Aladdin.

[DAJK]

Late show might crash and burn still, but so far Toy Story is running 90% of Incredibles at my theatre so far. So that’s 16.5M but we’ll see how rest of night plays out

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Question: When you guys do comps for your theaters you just compare the tickets sold? I want to compare Toy Story to Aladdin.

That's what I do, yes.  (new movie tickets sold/old movie tickets sold) * old movie preview number = comp.

 

So, for instance, comping against Venom (using it since it had 10m preview on the nose):

 

(6123/4493)*10 = 1.3628 * 10 = 13.63m comp

Edited June 21, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

19 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Question: When you guys do comps for your theaters you just compare the tickets sold? I want to compare Toy Story to Aladdin.

 

For me, I don’t have the database of comps that Porthos or some of the others have, so I tend to factor the tickets sold with my general knowledge of how I think a film should play.

[cdsacken]

All kidding aside I think any prediction above 12 under 15 has a good shot. Lots of variables. Lol I probably should just say 13.5 and be lazy but gonna go higher than the average of my range.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's what I do, yes.  (new movie tickets sold/old movie tickets sold) * old movie preview number = comp.

 

So, for instance, comping against Venom (using it since it had 10m preview on the nose):

 

(6123/4493)*10 = 1.3628 * 10 = 13.63m comp

Got 15.6 when comping with Aladdin but Aladdin didn't have IMAX previews at my theatre like Toy Story did. 

 

Interested to see where it ends up. Everyone mostly going with 12-14 range. 

[FlashMaster659]

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night Results)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 162/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

8:45 PM - 177/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

8:30 PM - 39/60

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 95/167

8:15 PM - 30/79

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 53/63

7:30 PM - 55/63

9:00 PM - 45/63

 

2D

 

8:00 - 126/167

11:00 - 128/167

Edited June 21, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Litio]

2 hours ago, Deja23 said:

When’s @Litio going to join in the preview prediction game for this weekend? Lol

Lol. Based on fandango sales for now, I

see about $12m for TS4 with some comparisons I did. Child's Play $1.5m+, but maybe I'm wrong, let's see final sales.

[RealLyre]

what happened to the 200M predictions? 

[Cap]

Toy Story 4

Thursday Previews

 

June 20, 2019 - Thursday Previews - Final Sales
Movie	Sold	Total	%
Lincoln Square 13
Toy Story 4	1273	3120	40.80%
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Toy Story 4	558	2434	22.92%

 

Yeah, that's right.  558 at Cinemagic as the Final.  436 Tickets on Thursday.

 

 

 

Thursday Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Lincoln Square 13
Toy Story 4	1273	--	--
Endgame	5259	24.20%	14.5M
Aladdin	836	152.27%	10.65M
Godzilla	1102	115.51%	7.27M
Dark Phoenix	1383	92.04%	4.60M
Thorykie AU	653	194.94%	6.04M
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Toy Story 4	558	--	--
Endgame	2113	26.40%	15.8M
Aladdin	121	461.15%	32.28M
Godzilla	201	277.61%	17.48M
Dark Phoenix	99	563.63%	28.18M
Thorykie AU	109	511.92%	15.86M

 

 

So what we can gain from this information is:

• God, May was a shitty month at the box office.

Once I stopped the endless JJJ faces, I went and dug out my Avengers: Endgame data, which comps to:

 

LS13: 14.5M

SMCM: 15.8M

 

Usually LS13, thanks to the IMAX screen, tends to overperform for bigger 'fan' movies. Godzilla and Dark Phoenix did very well there.  Also, the later shows dragged far behind the 6 and 7s, at both theaters.  

 

We'll see.  I don't really feel comfortable pointing to a number, because none of the comps have seen a 100+ opener yet.  (With the exception of AEG, which was a different beast.) . If I had to SWAG (sophisticated wild ass guess) it, I'd say 14.2M.

 

[druv10]

Just now, RealLyre said:

what happened to the 200M predictions? 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

what happened to the 200M predictions?