The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Toy Story 4 — Previews — AMC Willowbrook 24 

 

14 show times, 822 tickets sold out of 1988 available (41.35%)

 

 

 

This is about 193% higher than Detective Pikachu and 65% of Captain Marvel. All things considered, I’m putting in my previews estimate at $13.8 million for tonight. 

Hey that's near me!!!

[Shawn Robbins]

On 6/19/2019 at 6:21 PM, Porthos said:

 

I see you lurking on this thread, @Shawn.  

 

Got any tracking info/thoughts for TS4, maybe? Please?

Disney was saying $140M earlier this week. They lowball more often than they overshoot, so I think that's a fair benchmark at this point. Pre-sales really over-inflated expectations, it seems. Also think a lot of trackers forgot there would be no Father's Day bump like Incredibles 2 had.

 

But I'm always a believer in slumping markets building an invisible momentum toward breakout openings. The last few weeks of openers could qualify as that.

[FlashMaster659]

4 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 155/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

8:45 PM - 175/203

11:30 PM - 94/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 51/78

8:30 PM - 30/60

9:30 PM - 31/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 49/167

8:15 PM - 3/79

10:00 PM - 3/114

11:15 PM - 6/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 42/63

7:30 PM - 39/63

9:00 PM - 41/63

10:30 PM - 37/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 165/217

7:15 PM - 79/114

8:00 PM - 122/167

9:45 PM - 135/217

10:45 PM - 18/167

11:00 PM - 9/167

 

Total

 

1462(+260)/2541 (57.5%)

 

0.3450x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame mid-day of previews

 

Safe to say my theater is overperforming what the national result will presumably be

 

Final report tonight

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 159/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

8:45 PM - 175/203

11:30 PM - 113/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 60/78

8:30 PM - 35/60

9:30 PM - 34/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 69/167

8:15 PM - 11/79

10:00 PM - 5/114

11:15 PM - 13/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 53/63

7:30 PM - 51/63

9:00 PM - 42/63

10:30 PM - 40/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 165/217

7:15 PM - 81/114

8:00 PM - 126/167

9:45 PM - 165/217

10:45 PM - 59/167

11:00 PM - 25/167

 

Total

 

1659(+197)/2541 (65.3%)

[Sunny Max]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Final report tonight

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 159/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

8:45 PM - 175/203

11:30 PM - 113/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 60/78

8:30 PM - 35/60

9:30 PM - 34/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 69/167

8:15 PM - 11/79

10:00 PM - 5/114

11:15 PM - 13/55

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 53/63

7:30 PM - 51/63

9:00 PM - 42/63

10:30 PM - 40/63

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 165/217

7:15 PM - 81/114

8:00 PM - 126/167

9:45 PM - 165/217

10:45 PM - 59/167

11:00 PM - 25/167

 

Total

 

1659(+197)/2541 (65.3%)

Excellent advance ...

[FlashMaster659]

Guess I can cover some of the showtimes while I wait for my showing. Will miss the ones after 6:00 and before ~8:30 depending on when I get back to a place where I can sit and type (maybe you guys could help me out with those?)

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night Results)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 162/167

Edited June 21, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Deja23 said:

I might be missing the obvious here, but how do you determine walk up business via Pulse? Isn’t it strictly online sales while walk ups are tickets bought in the theater? Or are you basing it on how many tickets are sold after the first preview showing starts?

Same day business from online sales tends to correlate with walkup business. It indicates there's more demand than earlier presales indicated, which should translate to higher walkups

[charlie Jatinder]

So $14mn is happening.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Same day business from online sales tends to correlate with walkup business. It indicates there's more demand than earlier presales indicated, which should translate to higher walkups

Same day online sales are basically walk-ins. People avoid lines and there are offers online. 

[Neucentro]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

Excellent pace on Pulse the last few hours. It is definitely getting walk in business. Updating my projection from 12 to 13, could go higher if it continues to be this strong.

I tried comparing TS4 to Dragon 3 on the hourly.  It was running only 35% ahead for the last 3 hours. Actually it's not a good sign for TS4. I am thinking it will end up 46,000 for Thursday, compared to 14,000 for Dragon 3. That will mean Thursday previews around $10m.

Edit: With more 3D and IMAX screens than Dragon 3, TS4 should get a 10% bump on premium price. $11m previews should result.

Edited June 21, 2019 by Neucentro
To provide more information

[FlashMaster659]

17 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So $14mn is happening.

I assume this isn’t based on your exclusive data, right?

[Deja23]

When’s @Litio going to join in the preview prediction game for this weekend? Lol

[FlashMaster659]

14

50.1

50.5

36.6

 

151.2

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:50pm - 5:40pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	156	10656	17362	38.62%

 

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        7

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           497

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1228 

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.1660x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of tracking.

1.7195x as many tickets sold as Aladdin at stop of tracking.

2.3301x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters at stop of tracking.

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

Aladdin: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9953	13853	28.15%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             809

 

King of the Monsters: [3:20pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	12885	15763	18.26%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:             492

 

NOTE:::  Since I stopped Detective Pikachu and King of the Monsters tracking 80-90 minutes earlier due to it having 4pm previews (instead of 6pm), I have a 3:30 - 4:00 comp behind a spoiler box for a pure like-for-like comparison:

 

Spoiler

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (Pikachu/KotM Comp) [3:30pm - 4:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	153	11031	17237	36.00%

 

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        4

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           372

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:              728

 

Pikachu Time-Based Comp

2.0045x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of Pikachu tracking. 

2.1564x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters at stop of KotM tracking. 

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:       447

 

King of the Monsters: [3:20pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	12885	15763	18.26%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:             492

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0337x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.

0.9608x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

1.2995x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp at stop of tracking.

1.3628x as many tickets sold as Venom at stop of tracking.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

More Detailed Final Comps:

Solo: [4pm - 5pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	143	7732	13521	42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             486

 

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	6515	11120	41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

TS4 (JW)*: [4:50pm - 5:40pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	156	9012	14996	39.90%

*  TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom, Solo, and AM&tW

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:          1049

 

==========

 

Venom: [4:15pm - 4:50pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	8736	13229	33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

 

TS4 (V)*: [4:50pm - 5:40pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	156	9828	15951	38.39%

*TS4 (V) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1110

[Porthos]

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

I tried comparing TS4 to Dragon 3 on the hourly.  It was running only 35% ahead for the last 3 hours. Actually it's not a good sign for TS4. I am thinking it will end up 46,000 for Thursday, compared to 14,000 for Dragon 3. That will mean Thursday previews around $10m.

Dragon 3 is not a good comp, it has consistently underestimate previews by big margins, I think maybe due to seasonal factors like people are more likely to pre buy in the winter. I2 + small upward adjustment should do the trick.

[FlashMaster659]

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night Results)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 162/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 95/167

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 53/63

7:30 PM - 55/63

 

2D

 

8:00 - 126/167

Edited June 21, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[superduperm]

15 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

14

50.1

50.5

36.6

 

151.2

If it does $14M in previews it's getting at least $160M IMO.

[Damianport1]

Mojo has it at 165M

[Porthos]

Alright, first off a reminder.  Aladdin hella over-performed in Sacto.  But there's a chance TS4 is over-performing as well.  So I'll consider the Aladdin comp to be the extreme lower-bound, which I'll get to in a second.

 

I wasn't kidding about walkups in my last post.  Fallen Kingdom is still the King of the Walkups, but damn if TS4 didn't come close. Being within 125 tickets of that monster on an adjusted half-day basis is just outstanding.  And showings kept getting added throughout the day.  Three more showings were added just between 4pm and 5pm my time.

 

Aladdin gives a comp of 12m.  I think that's the floor. Pika Pika 12.3m also seems to be on the low end.

 

JW:FK points to 14.7m, Solo and KotM 14.6m, and AM&tW to 14.9m.  That's prob a little high. Venom comps to 13.6m. 

 

Though I haven't done a PLF penetration check, looked pretty decent.  But there are kids tickets in play.  Still, 12m to 14.5m is an lolDeadline range, so let's say 14m +/- .4m.   I kinda want to say 13.5m on the safe side.  But more of my comps are pointing high rather than low.  On the other hand, lots of kids tickets in play, hence the larger than normal +/-.

 

If it's closer to 12m then I know Sacto was really over-performing.  

 

Reserve the right to change my forecast after thinking about things more or seeing national trends.

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Alright, first off a reminder.  Aladdin hella over-performed in Sacto.  But there's a chance TS4 is over-performing as well.  So I'll consider the Aladdin comp to be the extreme lower-bound, which I'll get to in a second.

 

I wasn't kidding about walkups in my last post.  Fallen Kingdom is still the King of the Walkups, but damn if TS4 didn't come close. Being within 125 tickets of that monster on an adjusted half-day basis is just outstanding.  And showings kept getting added throughout the day.  Three more showings were added just between 4pm and 5pm my time.

 

Aladdin gives a comp of 12m.  I think that's the floor. Pika Pika 12.3m also seems to be on the low end.

 

JW:FK points to 14.7m, Solo and KotM 14.6m, and AM&tW to 14.9m.  That's prob a little high. Venom comps to 13.6m. 

 

Though I haven't done a PLF penetration check, looked pretty decent.  But there are kids tickets in play.  Still, 12m to 14.5m is an lolDeadline range, so let's say 14m +/- .4m.   I kinda want to say 13.5m on the safe side.  But more of my comps are pointing high rather than low.  On the other hand, lots of kids tickets in play, hence the larger than normal +/-.

 

If it's closer to 12m then I know Sacto was really over-performing.  

 

Reserve the right to change my forecast after thinking about things more or seeing national trends.

So basically it'll be somewhere in the 12-14 range? Hoping for 14.