The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sunny Max]

Spidey is back in business ... TS4 as usual leading by a fair margin ...

BUY TIME	       TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-24 16:00:00	1825	Toy Story 4
2019-06-24 16:00:00	291	The Lion King (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	205	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	178	Childs Play (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	155	Men in Black International
2019-06-24 16:00:00	137	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	128	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-24 16:00:00	104	Toy Story 4 3D
2019-06-24 16:00:00	95	Annabelle Comes Home
2019-06-24 16:00:00	94	Rocketman
2019-06-24 16:00:00	63	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-24 16:00:00	61	Anna (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	61	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	53	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-24 16:00:00	53	Shaft (2019)
2019-06-24 16:00:00	50	Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-24 16:00:00	40	Late Night (2019)

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Again, I don't know the final number, but I think it's safe to say it'll get over Fallen Kingdom's 11K and Far From Home's 13K. Both Avengers movies are probably not gonna be passed, but Disney being upset over Lion King failing to reach the first day of those movies is the equivalent of Nintendo being upset Breath of the Wild didn't beat out Mario Odyssey in copies sold.

Looking at the trendline the last couple of hours I think it'll just pip by Fallen Kingdom's 11k but might come up short on FFH.  TLK has slowed down pretty dramatically the last couple of hours.  Might pick up again the last hour or two of the day, but spitballing it right now I think I see 11k to 12k.

 

Currently stands at 8,217 for the day (including the fan event).  It gained 455 sets of tickets in the last hour.  7 more hours of that is approx 3,200 tickets, which would be 11.4k overall.  Could very well pick up once folks get home across all of the US of A, or it could keep slowing down slightly.

 

Regardless 11k to 12k (or a bit more if it does pick up) is a hell of a great first day for TLK.

[Menor the Destroyer]

37 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So I'm finally at a computer and able to look at some numbers. For Lion King, it's already hit about 7,762 after a few hours, with more to come. I don't know how to extrapolate that and come to a final number, but it is already above just about every movie on my list after only a few hours. The only movies it hasn't passed yet are Infinity War, Fallen Kingdom, Endgame, and Far From Home. Again, I don't know the final number, but I think it's safe to say it'll get over Fallen Kingdom's 11K and Far From Home's 13K. Both Avengers movies are probably not gonna be passed, but Disney being upset over Lion King failing to reach the first day of those movies is the equivalent of Nintendo being upset Breath of the Wild didn't beat out Mario Odyssey in copies sold.

I am not sure if it will beat FFH. That had 8600 after 7 hours. Great start for a family film though

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Looking at the trendline the last couple of hours I think it'll just pip by Fallen Kingdom's 11k but might come up short on FFH.  TLK has slowed down pretty dramatically the last couple of hours.  Might pick up again the last hour or two of the day, but spitballing it right now I think I see 11k to 12k.

 

Currently stands at 8,217 for the day (including the fan event).  It gained 455 sets of tickets in the last hour.  7 more hours of that is approx 3,200 tickets, which would be 11.4k overall.  Could very well pick up once folks get home across all of the US of A, or it could keep slowing down slightly.

 

Regardless 11k to 12k (or a bit more if it does pick up) is a hell of a great first day for TLK.

 

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I am not sure if it will beat FFH. That had 8600 after 7 hours. Great start for a family film though

Jinx! 👍

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Regardless 11k to 12k (or a bit more if it does pick up) is a hell of a great first day for TLK.

 

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I am not sure if it will beat FFH. That had 8600 after 7 hours. Great start for a family film though

 

If it can’t even triple TS4’s 1st day of sales, they shouldn’t even release it! 🤬

 

I’ve got a new name for it, The Flopping King!

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Jinx! 👍

Another thing is that I'm now wondering if Fallen Kingdom will be a good comp to think about here. Very similar length of PS run (23 vs 25 days), very similar first days on Pulse, and Fallen Kingdom was as walkup heavy as TS4 or I2 according to Charlie.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Another thing is that I'm now wondering if Fallen Kingdom will be a good comp to think about here. Very similar length of PS run (23 vs 25 days), very similar first days on Pulse, and Fallen Kingdom was as walkup heavy as TS4 or I2 according to Charlie.

Probably. I think JW:FK only failed as a comp for me locally because TS4 over-performed here. 

 

Gonna probably put it, TS4, and Aladdin in my personal comps.  Perhaps a CBM as well just for a 20m+ target.  Still thinking about what I want to include tonight.  As always, playing it by ear.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Just over a week for Spidey midnights to open, trend I am seeing is

 

1. Midnights shows are still limited. Almost most theaters just have one show while big Plex like AMC Empire 25 has multiple 2d shows listed. Unless there is huge surge in last couple of days its looking like limited preview of around 3m.

2. Overall Pulse PS is still heaving skewed around OD. but at least today the ration of OD to rest of the week PS is around 40% as opposed to 60% few days back. @Menor is thinking of OD hitting 120K tickets sold on Pulse( 27456 at 1PM PST). Seems extremely ambitious with Toy Story and Lion King also taking significant traffic. CM Pulse to OD BO was quite a bit less than BP or Ant-man 2.  Spidey should do better than CM but probably closer to BP than Ant-man. So for 50m OD it will need close to 100-105K PS. I am feeling more like 40m OD(without midnights) with 80-85K Pulse sales. This is because as we get close to release, OD PS will be a smaller part of overall PS. There is no incentive to rush out on OD tuesday when we have a long week ahead.

 

I will still stick with 170m till Sunday and around double that Domestic. With a robust OS run, it still has 1B WW in play though if China falls short of 200m we could see it miss the landmark though its in prime position to be highest Spiderman movie WW of all time.

 

Lion King PS started like how most expected. I am hopeful on 200m OW but would like to see the trend for few days before feeling comfortable. Toy Story had a great start but slowed down well below I2 and was trending around 2/3 I2 OW for a while(almost where it ended up). I am not sure what is the best comparison for it. Beast was a while ago but this has to hit PS well ahead of  beast to keep 200m+ OW in play.

A few thoughts. If it hits 80-85k I would say that should be more indicative of a low 30s OD, reason being that compared to say Ant-man and the Wasp a lot of online sales that would have gone to previews would go to OD, so it's best to compare combined previews and OD, which for Ant-man was 81k. I'm not sure that CM is a good comp at all given that TS4 is still shifting large numbers of tickets, which will skew the Pulse numbers kinda low for Spidey (meanwhile, AMATW did have to deal with some of I2 and JW2's later weekends throughout the runup to its own OW), but if we use CM as a comp then it would imply more like a <20 OD which seems ridiculous to me. For the same reason, I think that OD will continue to be a huge percentage of Pulse sales, as it's acting like a combined previews+OD for online ticket buyers, which should help get OD to ~120k. That's the only way I can explain the trend that we're seeing on Pulse with the ridiculous Tuesday frontloading. If it does get to 120k I'd expect an OD of 45-50 comparing with the 81k of AMATW (which had 33 million previews+OD). 

[cdsacken]

Oh my God. Under 300 Dom OW incoming. Flop city

[UserHN]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

Another thing is that I'm now wondering if Fallen Kingdom will be a good comp to think about here. Very similar length of PS run (23 vs 25 days), very similar first days on Pulse, and Fallen Kingdom was as walkup heavy as TS4 or I2 according to Charlie.

So if TLK 1st day of presales can't top JW:FK (and that movie is already walk up heavy), should we now expect an OW less than $150M?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, UserHN said:

So if TLK 1st day of presales can't top JW:FK (and that movie is already walk up heavy), should we now expect an OW less than $150M?

No, because I expect TLK to outperform FK in the week-before and week-of. FK had to deal with I2 sucking a huge amount of buzz just one week before, whereas TLK opens 17 days after FFH.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

If it can’t even triple TS4’s 1st day of sales, they shouldn’t even release it! 🤬

 

I’ve got a new name for it, The Flopping King!

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, UserHN said:

So if TLK 1st day of presales can't top JW:FK (and that movie is already walk up heavy), should we now expect an OW less than $150M?

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

Oh sorry. Don't really know how these presales comparisons work 😆

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, UserHN said:

Oh sorry. Don't really know how these presales comparisons work 😆

 

The proper comp, and I think @Menor and @Porthos will agree, is (TLK 24HR Sales / TS4 24HR Sales x TS4 Opening Weekend)......

 

It’s clear we’re headed for a $320m OW and everyone needs to get on this bandwagon right heckin’ meow!

 

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Oh sorry. Don't really know how these presales comparisons work 😆

Most of the problem is looking at any one day of sales and trying to draw hard and fast information out of it.  

 

And while TLK should be walkup heavy like JW:FK there still is a limit to the analogy here.

 

FFH is probably the better bound here, given recency of it.  And even then, lack of a real preview day versus traditional Thr previews rears its ugly head.

 

Mostly look at an overall picture over several days.  The opening bell is more for fun and relative strength.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The proper comp, and I think @Menor and @Porthos will agree, is (TLK 24HR Sales / TS4 24HR Sales x TS4 Opening Weekend)......

 

It’s clear we’re headed for a $320m OW and everyone needs to get on this bandwagon right heckin’ meow!

 

 

BRB making the club.

 

In all seriousness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Deadline make some calculation like that. "The Lion King is tracking for 200-300 million OW, with some believing it has a shot at 350"

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The proper comp, and I think @Menor and @Porthos will agree, is (TLK 24HR Sales / TS4 24HR Sales x TS4 Opening Weekend)......

 

It’s clear we’re headed for a $320m OW and everyone needs to get on this bandwagon right heckin’ meow!

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think @VenomXXR is thinking a bit small here. Using I2 as a comp, TLK is heading for the first ever BILLION DOLLAR DOMESTIC OW. Every single lost dollar, every single underperformance or flop has led up to this moment. The King will arise.

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think @VenomXXR is thinking a bit small here. Using I2 as a comp, TLK is heading for the first ever BILLION DOLLAR DOMESTIC OW. Every single lost dollar, every single underperformance or flop has led up to this moment. The King will arise.

“With TLK opening to 250M, did Disney leave 750M on the table this weekend?”