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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Was already planning on doing this, but since @UserHN asked.

 

TLK did:

 

0.7677x of Captain Marvel after 1+ days of pre-sales*. [1150 v 1498]

0.4106x of Solo on an adjusted basis after 1+ days of pre-sales.* [1080 v 2630]

0.2317x of Infinity War on an adjusted basis after 1 day of pre-sales. [1080 v 4662]

0.0768x of Endgame after 1 day of pre-sales. [1150 v 14975]

*Captain Marvel and Solo started late in the day so I rolled it over to the next day.

 

So, yeah.  Large CBMs have been doing a lot of sales on Day 1 recently. :)

So... Endgame had the higher first day of presales share for Previews than Solo, that should say something considering SW is the definition of presales heavy and I am rather certain that nothing will beat the presales heaviness.

 

That happened on Fandango too because taking the middle 350k tickets sold that would mean that 1.129% of all tickets (~31m) of the OWend were sold on the first day. If I am not wrong TS4 sold 0.03% on the first day or in other words the multi (first day to OWend) is 88.7x for Endgame and 3633x for TS4

Don't think there ever has been another movie that sold more than 1% on the first day (apart from maybe a SW movie and I don't even think Solo, TFA, RO or TLJ were that presale heavy).

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth

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1 hour ago, UserHN said:

Are there other big Uni releases this year aside from H&S?

Cats? lol.

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7 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

So... Endgame had the higher first day of presales share for Previews than Solo, that should say something considering SW is the definition of presales heavy and I am rather certain that nothing will beat the presales heaviness.

 

That happened on Fandango too because taking the middle 350k tickets sold that would mean that 1.129% of all tickets (~31m) of the OWend were sold on the first day. If I am not wrong TS4 sold 0.03% on the first day or in other words the multi (first day to OWend) is 88.7x for Endgame and 3633x for TS4

Don't think there ever has been another movie that sold more than 1% on the first day (apart from maybe a SW movie and I don't even think Solo, TFA, RO or TLJ were that presale heavy).

 

 

 

 

 

Nah, Pulse only shows a sample of tickets, and it only shows sets instead of individual tickets. Endgame sold millions of tickets on Fandango alone on its first day, not even counting those from chain websites.

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17 minutes ago, john2000 said:

is antman comp a better comparison , since it released in july too ?

I think so, but it won't be that useful until final days as Ant-man had very backloaded presales. 

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49 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think so, but it won't be that useful until final days as Ant-man had very backloaded presales. 

fingers crossed

 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

As of about 30 minutes ago

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 102/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 123/203

9:00 PM - 113/203

12:00 AM - 19/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 1/63

7:00 PM - 3/78

8:45 PM - 12/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 0/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 0/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 29/63

8:00 PM - 18/61

8:30 PM - 16/63

10:45 PM - 2/63

11:15 PM - 0/61

11:45 PM - 0/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 10/44

6:15 PM - 5/55

6:30 PM - 30/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 6/79

7:15 PM - 3/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 11/45

8:15 PM - 4/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 0/44

9:00 PM - 0/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 2/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

557/5158 (10.8%)

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 104/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 128/203

9:00 PM - 134/203

12:00 AM - 24/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 5/63

7:00 PM - 6/78

8:45 PM - 12/60

9:15 PM - 2/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 2/78

12:00 AM - 5/60

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 0/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 0/167

8:00 PM - 0/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 0/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 2/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

12:15 AM - 0/79

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:15 AM - 0/44*

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 29/63

8:00 PM - 26/61

8:30 PM - 19/63

10:45 PM - 2/63

11:15 PM - 0/61

11:45 PM - 0/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 16/44

6:15 PM - 9/55

6:30 PM - 30/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 10/79

7:15 PM - 5/44

7:45 PM - 5/44

8:00 PM - 9/45

8:15 PM - 6/167

8:30 PM - 0/45

8:45 PM - 0/44

9:00 PM - 0/49

9:15 PM - 0/44

9:30 PM - 0/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 0/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 3/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

12:00 AM - 0/44

12:15 AM - 0/49

12:30 AM - 0/44

12:45 AM - 0/55

1:00 AM - 0/217

1:15 AM - 0/48*

1:30 AM - 0/79*

 

Total

 

627(+70)/5158 (12.2%)

 

1.8550x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 after 1 day of pre-sales

 

*These shows are glitched sell-outs. However because of the pattern the showtimes form, it's safe to assume how many seats are in the theater and the zero have been sold so far based on how other shows around that time are doing.

Edited by FlashMaster659
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Btw for those who are worried about the frontloading of FFH presales onto Tuesday, it's sales for Day 2 and 3 are 230% and 300% of those days for AMATW at the same point (Day 1 (MN + OD) is 332% of AMATW (previews+OD) at the same point). Actually it's utterly destroying AMATW in all metrics, and that made 99 million in its first 6 days. I'd be pretty surprised if Spidey couldn't at least double that.

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Posted (edited)

“Disney’s The Lion King in its first 24 hours of advance ticket sales has rung up the second best first day sale of the year for Fandango after Avengers: Endgame, while Atom Tickets declares it’s their best first day sales for a family movie.”

 

“Also for Atom, The Lion King sold 4X as many tickets as Disney’s Aladdin, in the same time period. The Lion King’s first 24hrs of pre-sales for Atom also outpaced that of Marvel’s  Black Panther, Captain Marvel and Ant-Man & The Wasp in the same time period.”

Edited by raulbalarezo
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6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Beating Black Panther seems huge

Not on Atom 😛       

 

Beating CM on Atom is more impressive, and it sounds like it also beat CM and FFH on Fandango, which seems pretty good.

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7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Not on Atom 😛       

 

Beating CM on Atom is more impressive, and it sounds like it also beat CM and FFH on Fandango, which seems pretty good.

 

Also, 13.6x Aladdin’s first 24 hours on Pulse. The CM and FFH comp bode well.

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Posted (edited)

Over the last weeks these countings worked pretty well (and the Pulse whole day reports anyway) but last week I was wrong each time, embarrassing 😖.
Maybe it was a mistake to compare Anna with films which starred actors with way more (fan-)walk ups (Butler, Neeson) and maybe Greta was also no good comp because it was cross-generational and also a thriller, Idk.
And maybe horror fans indeed waited for Annabelle and this year just offers plenty of other films of that genre. When it comes to TS4 I'm still clueless.

However, from now on I will try to be more conservative with the comps.
 

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

Annabelle Comes Home: 39/15 – yesterday it were bad 9/15 (which was only on par with Happy Death Day 2 U at the same time, also a Wednesday release); HDD2U (9.5M OW, 1M OD) had on Tuesday at that time 17/15. It doesn't make much sense to add the numbers of other horror movies which started on a Friday because their Tuesday numbers would be strongly to the advantage of Annabelle 3 and their Thursday numbers to the disadvantage, e.g. Child's Play had at the same time of the day on Tuesday 6/15 and on Thursday 35/15. It only shows that Annabelle improved in comparison.
Yesterday: 15/15 – yesterday at that time it were ok 10/15; The Hustle (13.0M OW) had at that time on Tuesday 4/15.

 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Annabelle Comes Home: 105/15 – yesterday 11/15 (which was still only slightly above HDD2U); HDD2U had on Tuesday at that time again 17/15, Child's Play had at the same time of the day on Tuesday 23/15 and on Thursday 94/15. → Overall Annabelle Comes Home started the week very poorly but now it seems to go back to normal. If that holds tomorrow, it will probably be in line with the expectations of over/under 30M OW (e.g. boxoffice.com 31M 3-day).
Yesterday: 17/15 – yesterday at that time it were suddenly measly 2/15; The Sun Is Also a Star (2.5M OW) had at the same time on Tuesday 3/15, Long Shot (9.7M OW) 23/15, The Hustle 25/15 → It still doesn't look like a breakout hit but overall quite solide and it's only Tuesday.

Edited by el sid
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3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

So... Endgame had the higher first day of presales share for Previews than Solo, that should say something considering SW is the definition of presales heavy

It beat TFA 24 Hours record in 5 hours. What's Solo infront of that.

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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Also, 13.6x Aladdin’s first 24 hours on Pulse. The CM and FFH comp bode well.

Looks like the Pulse for yesterday was definitely deflated by competition. Something to keep in mind going forward.

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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It beat TFA 24 Hours record in 5 hours. What's Solo infront of that.

I wasn't talking about total numbers of presales but rather relatively speaking to OWend and how many of the OWend tickets got sold on the first day and Endgame seems to have the highest 1st day share (even higher than the SW movies).

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8 minutes ago, Menor said:

Looks like the Pulse for yesterday was definitely deflated by competition. Something to keep in mind going forward.

 

$25m is back on the table? ;) 

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9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

$25m is back on the table? ;) 

I will wait and see. By the time TLK appears on the akvalley report page (July 8th) the effect of competition should normalize somewhat. After that point Fallen Kingdom should serve as an ok comp (given that it's presales for the last 2 weeks were deflated by I2). 

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I feel like we need to keep Endgame’s crazy pre-sales in context. It was the follow up to arguably the biggest movie cliffhanger since Empire Strikes Back. MCU films normally have a healthy five weeks of pre-sales; Endgame only had less than a month. Disney held those tickets to create a frenzy in the MCU fandom, so that there was a real sense of urgency on the first day.  I am not diminishing the staggering numbers that endgame did. I am just saying Disney played everyone a beautifully —  and I do not expect anything remotely like that until Avengers 5 The Rise of Skywalker. 

 

Spoiler

And Frozen

 

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