The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

It’s gonna be interesting to see just how big Saturday and Sunday are going to be for Frozen 2. It’s going to lose 6-8M off of Incredibles 2 from its preview but maybe some of the business will appear during Saturday and Sunday. But this movie is going to be so awesome to follow especially in its first 10 days or so. I feel like we are in store for a wild FSS, a calm before the storm on Monday with a bonkers Tuesday followed by a wild 5 day weekend. Buckle up folks. We are in for a hopefully great ride the next 10 days. 

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2019/11/frozen-2-global-opening-box-office-preview-record-for-animation-film-1202790701/

 

Quote

Industry estimates see a big swing for Frozen 2, both stateside with $90M-$135M, and $120M-$140M abroad as the Jennifer Lee-Chris Buck directed movie blasts off around the global. While most domestic B.O. prognosticators see Frozen 2 well above $100M, the fact that no animated film has ever delivered an opening that has rivaled the first Frozen‘s $93.9M five-day take, gives some pause as we’re not in June, we’re in November. While there’s only 1% colleges and K-12 schools out this Friday, holiday breaks begin Monday going respectively to 41% and 14% for both categories, moving to 100% off by Thursday and Friday. Countering any asterisk to Frozen 2‘s lowball projections is the fact that advance ticket sales for the pic among theater circuits like AMC are posting records for an animated pic, well ahead of Toy Story 4 and Incredibles 2 (again those sales may not all be for this weekend, but over the Thanksgiving stretch). Even if Frozen 2 comes up short, it’s in for the long haul over the holiday period.

 

All in, the average for Frozen 2‘s global debut comes out to $242.5M. That would rep a new global opening record for an animated film, unseating Disney’s Toy Story 4 ($240.9M) and Incredibles 2‘s $235.8M.

 

Also opening in the U.S. is the Sony/TriStar’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood which is seeing around $15M at 3,231 theaters, depending on older females. They could very well be stolen away from Frozen 2, but the foresight on this Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers movie is that it will leg out.

 

STX is opening the AGBO Studios/Madison Wells Media/Huayi Brothers film 21 Bridges starring Chadwick Boseman in his first original big screen appearance post the Avengers movies and Black Panther. Pic was made for a net reported budget of $33M with projections in the $10M-$12M range.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Frozen 2:

 

2nd Saturday: 15030/429373

 

2nd Sunday: 7913/420644

 

So 2nd Sunday and beyond is where sales finally fall down to earth. 

 

So post-OW sales are adding about 1/3 of OW sales. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Menor

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

$90M-$135M, and $120M-$140M abroad

What is it about this movie that’s making the industry lose their goddamn mind? This is 210-275. Try 300-400.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What is it about this movie that’s making the industry lose their goddamn mind? This is 210-275. Try 300-400.

Because they all got egg on their faces after making unreasonable projections for TS4 I guess.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Because they all got egg on their faces after making unreasonable projections for TS4 I guess.

CM was a bigger miss, but I guess nobody cared because they were laughably under instead of a bit over? So their incentive is to predict [reasonable range]*2/3, instead of [reasonable range]?

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

I guess. CM was a bigger miss, but I guess nobody cared because they were laughably under instead of a bit over? So their incentive is to predict [reasonable range]*2/3, instead of [reasonable range]?

If they miss low then the movie "inexplicably overperformed". If they miss high then it makes it much harder to positively spin.

[MattW]

10 hours ago, a2k said:

from the wrap article

Quote

But at the same time, analysts are ruling out a $150 million-plus opening despite record presales on Atom and Fandango because they believe that “Frozen II”‘s key audience, families, will probably wait until Thanksgiving weekend to see the film.

 

It'll have a good thanksgiving week compared to normal weeks but do they really expect it to be unusually backloaded compared to other pre-thanksgiving releases?  Last year the grinch dropped 20% from the weekend before to the weekend after thanksgiving. That would be a phenomenal result for F2 imo.  I expect a much harsher drop, closer to hunger games than grinch. 

[narniadis]

As Deadline noted though, this is the first of its kind for this time of year and I am sure it gives pause to even the best predictors. Even Shawn and BOPro arent sold an a solid place. 

 

The unknown factor is a learning curve but it also isn't going to happen enough for us to make consistent comparisons. 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

It'll have a good thanksgiving week compared to normal weeks but do they really expect it to be unusually backloaded compared to other pre-thanksgiving releases?  Last year the grinch dropped 20% from the weekend before to the weekend after thanksgiving. That would be a phenomenal result for F2 imo.  I expect a much harsher drop, closer to hunger games than grinch. 

Difference also in weekend 3 versus 2 (Grinch / Frozen) it will definitely fall harder than Grinch but its coming off opening. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

Industry estimates see a big swing for Frozen 2, both stateside with $90M-$135M, and $120M-$140M abroad

 

FUCK YOU Industry Estimates. I won't even comment on stateside, but I bet, I won't post anything on the board, if overseas weekend is less than $200mn. fwiw, China + South Korea + Japan + UK will be $120mn.

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, Menor said:

If they miss low then the movie "inexplicably overperformed". If they miss high then it makes it much harder to positively spin.

Yeah, but like... is there no thought to truth and accuracy here? If you’re gonna spout numbers from nowhere just to make the real ones look like a huge overperformance, why not “an estimated 70-110M stateside and 100-150 abroad.”    
 

Edit: Jesus. I forgot their actual OS range, and my “joke excessively low” one is actually better

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, a2k said:

-snip-

Ok. here's what happening, public be like, it's pre holiday weekend, so we will actually wait for holiday to start and then watch it. Then why are the pre-sales for weekend extremely high. It can't be happening both sides, if they are waiting for holiday weekend, why booking for weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As Deadline noted though, this is the first of its kind for this time of year and I am sure it gives pause to even the best predictors. Even Shawn and BOPro arent sold an a solid place. 

 

The unknown factor is a learning curve but it also isn't going to happen enough for us to make consistent comparisons. 

No defense for 90 million being in the range though... I mean they think it's going to open lower than Aladdin despite being in a different universe in presales?

[Curtis1986]

Is Frozen really that loved or is it the soundtrack that made it an huge hit.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Ok. here's what happening, public be like, it's pre holiday weekend, so we will actually wait for holiday to start and then watch it. Then why are the pre-sales for weekend extremely high. It can't be happening both sides, if they are waiting for holiday weekend, why booking for weekend.

People are just clicking the wrong weekend when they go to book. An hour before showing they will all realize and switch to the day they really meant. 80M OW, 150M 2nd weekend  

[CaptainJackSparrow]

2 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

Is Frozen really that loved or is it the soundtrack that made it an huge hit.

I guess we will find out soon, but based on merchandise sales, I'd say the film is still loved.

[keysersoze123]

90m is very good prediction

 

 

 

 

for the seccond weekend.

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

90m is very good prediction

 

 

 

 

for the seccond weekend.

Such a good post..so sneaky! I love it

[Porthos]

Folks, could it really be something as simple as just looking at an expected Thr internal multi and not looking at the monster Sat which seems to be brewing?

 

I could see them thinking, "Well, preview number might come in well under TS4, so if the weekend plays out similarly, here's the range".

 

Either that or we are massively over-estimating the coming Sat bump. 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Porthos