The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jonwo]

$18m seems to be what most people where thinking. I think it might do $20m tops

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, Alli said:

Early tracking: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, starring Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson, is tracking to open to $18M or more over the Aug. 18-20 weekend, double the tracking for Steven Soderbergh’s Logan Lucky, around $8M.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/what-matters-hollywood-i-today-entertainment-newsletter-8-15-17-1029327/item/academy-chief-defends-diversity-push-1029324

That's around what I had THB at. Although after the screening I got super excited and thought it would do $25M+ haha But I always thought it could get to $20M but $18M would be very good for it given the budget. 

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I dunno, I really think people might be underestimating Reynolds' starpower boost after Deadpool.

Might yes, but you comparing him with one of the most loved actor out there (domestic) with one of the most fidel fanbase in Denze, he is arguably the biggest domestic draw of the 2000's.

 

Reynolds starpower raised post Deadpool and will be better used in a comedy but:

3/24/17	Life (2017)	Sony	$30,234,022	3,146	$12,501,936	3,146	16
4/15/16	Criminal (2016)	LG/S	$14,708,696	2,683	$5,767,278	2,683	21

 

 

That is not Denzel I opened 16 or my 17 wide released moveis of the 2000's above 20m incredible run (something even Dicaprio didn't come close to do)

 

Between 17.5m to 19.5m is much more likely than a 26/28 like a 2 Guns scenario.

Edited August 15, 2017 by Barnack

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Might yes, buy you comparing it with one of the most loved actor out there (domestic) with one of the most fidel fanbase in Denzel.

 

Reynolds starpower raised post Deadpool and will be better used in a comedy but:

3/24/17	Life (2017)	Sony	$30,234,022	3,146	$12,501,936	3,146	16
4/15/16	Criminal (2016)	LG/S	$14,708,696	2,683	$5,767,278	2,683	21

 

 

That is not Denzel I openned 16 or my 17 wide release in the 2000's above 20m incredible run (something even Dicaprio didn't come close to do)

 

Between 17.5m to 19.5m is much more likely than a 26/28 like a 2 Guns scenario.

To be fair Ryan Reynolds was in like 5 minutes of criminal. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Nova said:

To be fair Ryan Reynolds was in like 5 minutes of criminal. 

And about 20 of Life  

[Nova]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

And about 20 of Life  

I was gonna make that comment but I knew someone else would for me 

[Barnack]

27 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Spoiler

And about 20 of Life

 

Not something audience knew going on the first weekend (I imagine in both case, didn't saw the other movie or followed is promotion), I'm purely talking opening here not legs.

 

Spoiler

The way Life was sold (junket, trailer, poster, etc...) he did seem like Jake co-leads and it was a total surprise when he die early

 

Edited August 15, 2017 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Not something audience knew going on the first weekend (I imagine in both case, didn't saw the other movie or followed is promotion), I'm purely talking opening here not legs.

I think RR was billed on Criminal's poster too  

[nomyth]

I don't know... RR really hasn't proven he's a draw outside CBM's. His other two big hits were co-helmed by undeniably bigger stars imo (Denzel in Safe House and Bullock in The Proposal).

 

I keep comparing HB to The Change-Up. R-rated comedy in August with a well-known co-star. It's been selling roughly 60% of what AB did for the past 24 hours. If that trend continues through Thursday, I would be surprised if it hit 18M this weekend.

 

I will add, however, that R-rated comedies appear to have done the most poorly on presales (outside of GT) this summer. So, I'm definitely not ruling it out. I've been comparing this to AB simply because it's another R-rated flick that was selling basically nothing the week prior to release. But I didn't track #'s for The House or Baywatch, which would be better comparisons. It'll be interesting to see how not presales heavy this weekend's releases are.

[DAJK]

I'll admit that Life's BO has baffled me ever since it opened. It was a decent movie (not great but not awful) with a decent cast and a decent release date. So why couldn't it do decent numbers?

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think RR was billed on Criminal's poster too  

He wasn't. He isn't billed anywhere and he has like one scene in the trailer? Maybe not even that.

 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, DAJK said:

I'll admit that Life's BO has baffled me ever since it opened. It was a decent movie (not great but not awful) with a decent cast and a decent release date. So why couldn't it do decent numbers?

Its reviews and WOM weren't good enough after the number of gigantic hits in March.

[Jonwo]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Its reviews and WOM weren't good enough after the number of gigantic hits in March.

I suspect it wouldn't have been much more successful had it been released in a quieter month.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

He wasn't. He isn't billed anywhere and he has like one scene in the trailer? Maybe not even that.

 

Yup. I don't remember him doing anything for that film in terms of promo. 

 

And it was pretty clear by the synopsis of the film that he's not a major player in the movie. 

8 minutes ago, nomyth said:

I don't know... RR really hasn't proven he's a draw outside CBM's. His other two big hits were co-helmed by undeniably bigger stars imo (Denzel in Safe House and Bullock in The Proposal).

 

I keep comparing HB to The Change-Up. R-rated comedy in August with a well-known co-star. It's been selling roughly 60% of what AB did for the past 24 hours. If that trend continues through Thursday, I would be surprised if it hit 18M this weekend.

 

I will add, however, that R-rated comedies appear to have done the most poorly on presales (outside of GT) this summer. So, I'm definitely not ruling it out. I've been comparing this to AB simply because it's another R-rated flick that was selling basically nothing the week prior to release. But I didn't track #'s for The House or Baywatch, which would be better comparisons. It'll be interesting to see how not presales heavy this weekend's releases are.

I don't think THB and AB are good comps. The only similarities is that they're both R-rated.

 

 Baywatch had decent presales but was sunk by how horrible it was...but remember that's a franchise film and not an original comedy like say The House, Girls Trip or THB are 

[Jonwo]

Just now, Nova said:

 Baywatch had decent presales but was sunk by how horrible it was...but remember that's a franchise film and not an original comedy like say The House, Girls Trip or THB are 

Baywatch had Dwayne Johnson to sell it as well as the Baywatch brand. It did okay OS probably the rare comedies that do better OS than domestic.

[Nova]

Life was good for what it was but I didn't go watch it because Reynolds was in it. I liked it because I enjoy Alien movies. I'd consider myself a Reynolds fan and I would not have watched it if I didn't like Alien movies 

 

Now his wife on the other hand....I'd watch her in anything 

[nomyth]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

 

I don't think THB and AB are good comps. The only similarities is that they're both R-rated.

 

 Baywatch had decent presales but was sunk by how horrible it was...but remember that's a franchise film and not an original comedy like say The House, Girls Trip or THB are 

It's certainly not an ideal comp but it's the best one I have hard #'s for from the past month. Everything else was too presales heavy to compare it to. Girls Trip, for example, was selling like 5 times as much at the same point.

 

I do expect HB to have weaker presales and I'm trying to make an appropriate compensation for that in my predictions. Say, if it stays around 60% of AB through Thursday, a direct comparison would put its OD at around 4.2M. But I wouldn't think it would go quite that low, so I'm adding another 25% or so to that # for a Friday in the lower 5M range.

[WrathOfHan]

On 8/8/2017 at 4:11 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Wonder Woman is gone.

 

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature: 6 (4 2D/2 3D; 2nd Biggest and Average)

Annabelle: Creation: 5 (2nd Biggest and Average)

 

The Dark Tower: 6 (Flat; Biggest)

Atomic Blonde: 5 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

Detroit: 5 (Down 1; Average)

Dunkirk: 5 (Flat; Average)

The Emoji Movie: 5 (Flat; 3 2D/2 3D; Average)

Girls Trip: 5 (Flat; Average, 3rd Smallest, and Smallest)

Kidnap: 5 (Flat; Average and 3rd Smallest)

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 5 (Flat; 3 2D/2 3D; Average)

Despicable Me 3: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

The Lion King: 3 (Down 3; 2 Standard/1 Sing-Along; 2nd Smallest)

War for the Planet of the Apes: 2 (Down 3; 2nd Smallest)

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: 1 (Down 3 and lost 3D; Average)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

 

 

 

Despicable Me 3, The Lion King, and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets are gone.

 

The Hitman's Bodyguard: 6 (Average)

Logan Lucky: 5 (Biggest)

 

The Dark Tower: 6 (Flat; 2nd Biggest and Average)

Annabelle: Creation: 5 (Flat; 2nd Biggest and Average)

Atomic Blonde: 5 (Flat; Average)

Dunkirk: 5 (Flat; Average)

The Emoji Movie: 5 (Flat and lost 3D; 4th Smallest)

Girls Trip: 5 (Flat; Average)

Kidnap: 5 (Flat; Average)

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature: 5 (Down 1 and lost 3D; 3rd and 2nd Smallest)

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 5 (Flat and lost 3D; Smallest)

War for the Planet of the Apes: 5 (Up 3; 3rd and 2nd Smallest)

Detroit: 1 (Down 4; Average)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited August 15, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

LMFAO NUT JOB IS ALREADY IN THE SMALLER AUDITORIUMS AND LOST 3D  

How the FUCK is The Dark Tower hanging onto the second biggest auditorium during the day (and Annabelle at night for that matter)? At least Logan Lucky is in their biggest.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

LMFAO NUT JOB IS ALREADY IN THE SMALLER AUDITORIUMS AND LOST 3D  

How the FUCK is The Dark Tower hanging onto the second biggest auditorium during the day (and Annabelle at night for that matter)? At least Logan Lucky is in their biggest.

Logan Lucky in their biggest seems like an awful decision. Either moving Annabelle to there or put there The Hitman's Bodyguard seemed like a better choice.

 

And why not just have Annabelle and Dark Tower in a screen each instead of mixing them? I can understand when that happens with kids movies, but considering both probably aren't doing much during the day (especially Dark Tower)...