The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, cax16 said:

[nomyth]

Over 10 minutes, HB made 15 appearances on Pulse while LL had a measly 2. Both are looking pretty bad but HB is at least veering away from complete disaster. With that said, it's still only selling a little over half what AB was at the same point. Still feel 15M is about best case scenario but I figure it's probably at least good for a double digit debut. Right now, I'd guess around 11-12M.

 

LL, on the other hand, is looking like a disaster. Even Wish Upon was selling more at the same point. I don't want to get carried away just yet but I'm almost certain it will debut in the single digits. And, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it grossed like 5M. Depends on its screen count as well tho.

 

 

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, nomyth said:

Over 10 minutes, HB made 15 appearances on Pulse while LL had a measly 2. Both are looking pretty bad but HB is at least veering away from complete disaster. With that said, it's still only selling a little over half what AB was at the same point. Still feel 15M is about best case scenario but I figure it's probably at least good for a double digit debut. Right now, I'd guess around 11-12M.

 

LL, on the other hand, is looking like a disaster. Even Wish Upon was selling more at the same point. I don't want to get carried away just yet but I'm almost certain it will debut in the single digits. And, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it grossed like 5M. Depends on its screen count as well tho.

 

 

I wonder how a concentration in the South & South West affects Fandango?  Are those areas more or less likely to use Fandango or even have reserve seating?
 

Quote

 Logan Lucky will open at 2,500 theaters, with a major presence in the South and Southwest, reflecting its setting. The movie will be screened in New York, but there will be no red carpet celebrations.

 

 

http://deadline.com/2017/08/logan-lucky-peter-bart-studios-wont-be-wishing-soderbergh-much-luck-as-he-plans-to-break-rules-on-new-film-1202145745/

[DAJK]

Logan Lucky set up to bomb at my theatre this weekend. God that movie just doesn't have an audience here, and I'd be beyond shocked if it did remotely well.

[dxmatrixdt]

10 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

Dunkirk continues to freefall

Annabelle - 27.6%

Dunkirk 6.8%

Nut Job - 6.4%

Dark Tower - 5.4%

Emoji - 4.7%

 

Annabelle - 24.6%

Dunkirk - 6.8%

Nut Job - 5.7%

Emoji - 5.6%

Dark Tower - 4.7%

[dxmatrixdt]

4 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

Annabelle - 24.6%

Dunkirk - 6.8%

Nut Job - 5.7%

Emoji - 5.6%

Dark Tower - 4.7%

Dunkirk STILL falling...

 

Annabelle - 22.7%

Dunkirk - 6.5%

Nut Job - 6.1%

Emoji - 5.8%

Spider-Man - 5.1%

[Premium George]

IT could have more than 95% on the day of release on MT. No big release till then.

[TwoMisfits]

Today is the $4 T-Mobile ticket for Hitman's Bodyguard on Atom...so Atom-selling theaters should see a big jump in ticket presales today.  So, I wouldn't read too much into the jump unless it keeps up the pace the rest of the week...

 

Before the sales, my Atom selling theater for HB is at 8 seats sold for Thursday (LL is still 5)...I'll report how well the sale did tomorrow morning...

Edited August 15, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Nova]

21 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Today is the $4 T-Mobile ticket for Hitman's Bodyguard on Atom...so Atom-selling theaters should see a big jump in ticket presales today.  So, I wouldn't read too much into the jump unless it keeps up the pace the rest of the week...

 

Before the sales, my Atom selling theater for HB is at 8 seats sold for Thursday (LL is still 5)...I'll report how well the sale did tomorrow morning...

I agree. 

 

This morning THB has sold 6 tickets for the one Thursday show. I didn't check the other showtimes 

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, Matrix4You said:

Dunkirk STILL falling...

 

Annabelle - 22.7%

Dunkirk - 6.5%

Nut Job - 6.1%

Emoji - 5.8%

Spider-Man - 5.1%

Annabelle - 22.4%

Dunkirk - 6.5%

Emoji - 6.3%

Nut Job - 6.2%

Spider-Man - 5.2%

 

Dunkirk finally held flat after about 15 to 20 updates of it continuously falling.  Spider-Man looks to stay ahead of Dark Tower during weekdays.  Crap like Emoji getting ahead of Nut Job 2 already, ughh.

[Rumpot]

If you search twitter for #hitmansbodyguard you'll see a large stream of automatically generated posts of people who got the $4 Tmobile ticket.  Of course, it is impossible to quantify exactly how many there are.

 

Out of curiosity - anyone know who subsidizes deals like this?  I'm assuming that Tmobile and Atom do part of it.  How about the studio and the theater/exhibitor?

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, Matrix4You said:

Annabelle - 22.4%

Dunkirk - 6.5%

Emoji - 6.3%

Nut Job - 6.2%

Spider-Man - 5.2%

 

Dunkirk finally held flat after about 15 to 20 updates of it continuously falling.  Spider-Man looks to stay ahead of Dark Tower during weekdays.  Crap like Emoji getting ahead of Nut Job 2 already, ughh.

Annabelle - 21.8%

Nut Job - 6.7%

Dunkirk - 6.6%

Emoji - 6.5%

Spider-Man - 5.1%

[DAJK]

Honestly I don't see why Hitman's Bodyguard won't open at least close to 2 Guns, action comedy with 2 big leads in a mostly dead August, and reviews don't praise it they hardly say it's dogshit.

[Barnack]

41 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly I don't see why Hitman's Bodyguard won't open at least close to 2 Guns, action comedy with 2 big leads in a mostly dead August, and reviews don't praise it they hardly say it's dogshit.

There is some reasons to think it will not be that close.

 

1) Denzel Washington is arguably the biggest domestic draw actor wise for a movie like that and is co-star scored well among Denzel weakest quadrant (white young girls) like studio often do choose for is co-stars (Pratt, chloe moretz, etc...).

2) Big studio (Universal) release vs Liongates (mini-major), only one non-IP movie ever opened like 2 Guns in all Liongates studio history with Now you see me

 

 

At least theaters count will be the same and reviews for the genre are probably not that factor (for that level of difference), but I could easily see HB doing less than 24m, even less than 19.5

 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2017 by Barnack

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

There is some reasons to think it will not be that close.

 

1) Denzel Washington is arguably the biggest domestic draw actor wise for a movie like that and is co-star scored well among Denzel weakest quadrant (white young girls) like studio often do choose for is co-stars (Pratt, chloe moretz, etc...).

2) Big studio (Universal) release vs Liongates (mini-major), only one non-IP movie ever opened like 2 Guns in all Liongates studio history with Now you see me

 

 

At least theaters count will be the same and reviews for the genre are probably not that factor (for that level of difference), but I could easily see HB doing less than 24m, even less than 19.5

 

 

 

I dunno, I really think people might be underestimating Reynolds' starpower boost after Deadpool. Before then he was rejected my a big factor of the male crowd and was then usually bigger among women. Now he's got both men and women as a fan base, and as @Nova has pointed out, the humour in this film closely mirrors Deadpool's humour, so it is targeting the same demo.

 

Not to mention just how dead the marketplace is as a whole. Something is bound to overperform, and I think people are interested enough to get this past 20M and maybe even more. That being said, if I'm wrong this weekend then oh well, I was wrong, I've been wrong before that's for sure

[TwoMisfits]

So, one theater in my area (not 1 I track) has posted it's weekend schedule and it amuses me that Nut Job Never Again is already being dropped to only THREE showings/day starting Friday...this one is gone in 2 weeks from 1/2 its theaters...that's almost guaranteed...

[Nova]

Just now, DAJK said:

I dunno, I really think people might be underestimating Reynolds' starpower boost after Deadpool. Before then he was rejected my a big factor of the male crowd and was then usually bigger among women. Now he's got both men and women as a fan base, and as @Nova has pointed out, the humour in this film closely mirrors Deadpool's humour, so it is targeting the same demo.

 

Not to mention just how dead the marketplace is as a whole. Something is bound to overperform, and I think people are interested enough to get this past 20M and maybe even more. That being said, if I'm wrong this weekend then oh well, I was wrong, I've been wrong before that's for sure

The humor is definitely Deadpool like. 

 

The problem is i dont think the marketing puts an emphasis on it. I think if they did, people would go see it because it's Ryan Reynolds playing the role people want to see him in. 

[Jonwo]

17 minutes ago, Nova said:

The humor is definitely Deadpool like. 

 

The problem is i dont think the marketing puts an emphasis on it. I think if they did, people would go see it because it's Ryan Reynolds playing the role people want to see him in. 

They should have really used the Bodyguard spoof poster image which they used in the early marketing. 

[Alli]

Early tracking: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, starring Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson, is tracking to open to $18M or more over the Aug. 18-20 weekend, double the tracking for Steven Soderbergh’s Logan Lucky, around $8M.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/what-matters-hollywood-i-today-entertainment-newsletter-8-15-17-1029327/item/academy-chief-defends-diversity-push-1029324

Edited August 15, 2017 by Alli

[Alli]

18M would be quite good for The Bodyguard