The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cax16]

They moved up stage two here by a few days so that starts next Wednesday. Even if stage 3 gets moved up by a week I don’t think theatres open here at the earliest till July 16th, but If I had to guess I think theatres will open around July 19th. 

Edited June 24, 2021 by cax16

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	168	17632	20531	2899	14.12%

 

Showings Where Cap Was Lifted	1
Total Showings Added Today	25*
Total Seats Added Today	2351
Total Seats Sold Today	439

* Includes two showings from non-reserved seating theaters

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	126.49		480	2239		21/118	2454/4693	47.71%		6.07m
F9 (adj)	---		433	2832		0/168	17579/20411	13.87%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

 

105% AQP II adj = 6.4m

 

Did slightly outpace H&S's T-1 pace I think (eyeballing an adjustment for H&S puts it at around 400 tickets sold) which could mean that F9 does something similar tomorrow that H&S did on its Opening Night.  But maybe we just have a double whammy of AQP II over-performing locally and F9 underperforming.  I'll know more once I get some comps that I can officially adjust tomorrow.  Maybe add John Wick 3??

 

(the biggest wildcard is how much of the US/Canada re-opened/had caps lifted relative to Sacramento a month ago)

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:45pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	0	170	17331	20721	3390	16.36%

 

Showings Where Cap Was Reached	2
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	190
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	491

 

T-0 *****BENCHMARKS***** (see below for explanation)

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Preview Number
AQP II *FINAL* (adj)	---		845	3084		36/139	2049/5133	60.08%		4.8m
F9 Mid-Day (adj)	---		488	3320		0/170	17281/20601	16.12%		---

 

T-0 *****BENCHMARKS***** (see below for explanation)

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Preview Number
H&S *FINAL* (adj)	----		----	2630		0/111	9423/12053	21.82%		5.8m
Wick 3 *FINAL* (adj)	---		----	2722		0/62	5225/7947	34.25%		5.9m
F9 Mid-Day (adj)	---		466	3243		0/170	13836/17079	18.99%		???

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

I was out and about when I would normally do a mid-day track for AQP II so I couldn't make an update then and I only can make approximations for H&S and Wick 3, so instead I set up benchmarks for F9 to compare to for the rest of the day.

 

If I want to spitball, it looks like John Wick 3 probably sold around 350 tickets by mid-day (versus F9's 466) and H&S probably sold around 425 tickets by mid-day (versus F9's 466).

 

So, F9 is beating both of them on day of sales, and is on pace to beat AQP II's day of sales as well.  Just have to see what the rest of the day brings.

 

Can't give much better info than that, but I do think the benchmarks are of some interest, and I'll be able to comp against all three when I do the final report.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Porthos

[WrathOfHan]

Will do my last update now since I need to run errands and get dinner:

 

7:00 Dolby: 115/236 (+3)

7:15: 20/107 (+7)

7:30: 45/107 (-1)

7:45: 20/40 (+15)

8:00 IMAX: 22/372 (+5)

8:15: 7/70 (+4)

8:30: 21/107 (-)

8:45: 2/70 (-)

9:00: 7/107 (+2)

9:15: 0/40 (-)

9:15: 8/67 (+4)

9:30: 4/67 (-)

Total: 269/1,390 (+39)

 

Comps:

 

133% of AQP2 Previews (6.4M)

251% of ITH Thurs+Fri (12.6M)

328% of Conjuring 3 Friday the day before (32.1M)

 

Showings before 8 are having good movement, but I expect the later showings to stay on the emptier side. Friday update coming shortly

[WrathOfHan]

Friday:

 

12:30: 17/107

12:45: 1/107

1:15 IMAX: 4/372

1:30: 0/67

2:15 Dolby: 32/236

2:45: 0/107

3:15: 11/107

4:00: 0/107

4:30: 0/107

5:00 IMAX: 6/372

5:15: 0/67

6:00 Dolby: 44/236

6:30: 7/107

7:00: 41/107

7:30: 2/40

7:45: 11/107

8:15: 5/107

8:45 IMAX: 40/372

9:00: 7/67

9:45 Dolby: 42/236

10:00: 2/107

Total: 272/ 3,242

 

Comps:

 

168% of AQP2 Friday the day before (32.6M)

254% of ITH Thurs+Fri (12.7M)

323% of ITH Friday the day before (12M assuming Friday was 3.7M)

332% of Conjuring 3 Friday the day before (32.5M)

358% of Cruella Friday the day before (27.6M)

 

PLF sales are doing really well. Unlike AQP, this isn't selling too well in the afternoon, but evening sales are far outpacing it right now. I'm gonna go with:

 

7M Previews

30.8M Friday (23.8M True Friday, same multi F8 had on Good Friday)

21.6M Saturday

14.5M Sunday

66.9M Weekend

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

First time posting tracking!  A few notes - sales are for previews showtimes only; pulled from Fandango; Phoenix sales exclude Harkins and Alamo theaters; Raleigh excludes Marquee Cinemas. 

 

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
F9: The Fast Saga	T-0	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	853	283	10.26%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	962	239	11.32%
		Raleigh	8	44	4,882	1,242	354	25.44%
F9: The Fast Saga Total			21	149	21,692	3,057	876	14.09%

 

Updated F9 numbers for today's sales

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
F9: The Fast Saga	Night of	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	1,155	302	13.90%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	1,150	188	13.53%
		Raleigh	8	46	5,015	1,531	289	30.53%
F9: The Fast Saga Total			21	151	21,825	3,836	779	17.58%

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Menor said:

Morning update: F9 is currently at 66904 tickets sold for Thursday. Added 9k since last night. About 6k of that came during the late night/early morning hours, while it did about 3k just in the past hour and a half. 

~90 minutes after this it was at 70,452 tickets sold.

~90 minutes afer that it was at 74,649.

Currently (after another 90 minutes again) it is at 80,600.

[druv10]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

~90 minutes after this it was at 70,452 tickets sold.

~90 minutes afer that it was at 74,649.

Currently (after another 90 minutes again) it is at 80,600.

Nice, hopefully 8-9M Previews and maybe push 10M since Fast Series tend to be backloaded. 

Edited June 24, 2021 by druv10

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/23/2021 at 1:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

213

1610

13.23%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

230

2245

10.24%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1537	282	17156	8.96%	15	102
$150 PWPs:	0
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	2

 

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 1196

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 6.11M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 7.85M

 

Another disappointing day. It'll need a huge day tomorrow. The downfall here are the AMCs, they are not performing up to par compared to my Cinemark theaters(or Cinemarks are just overperforming for whatever reason).

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

370

1610

22.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

369

2323

15.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2874	1337	17722	16.22%	15	110

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 566

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 6.26M

Hobbs comp: 7.06M

 

Unfortunately I had to do the count a little early, but I don't think it'll move the needle too much. I didn't adjust for anything other than comparable theaters for the Hobbs comp to make up for it. Again, the AMCs here are underperforming for whatever reason. At least it looks better nationally. 

 

Spoiler

@charlie Jatinder I won't be able to do the Thursday Megaplex count(I'll do the Friday one late tonight), so if you can/want to do that, that'd be great.

 

[Eric the Minion]

20 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	105	2526	18482	13.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 8

Total Seats Added Today: 1,286

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 588

 

Comp

0.869x of Godzilla vs. Kong 1 Day Before Release (8.43M)

0.717x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-1 Before Release (13.89M)

 

Pretty solid day today, though, like always, the last day will really determine whether this opens in the 7M range or 8M range.

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	105	4535	18482	24.54%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 2,009

 

Comp

1.170x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (11.35M)

2.305x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Final Count (11.07M)

0.876x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri Final Count (16.96M)

 

Well...bah gawd.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/24/2021 at 1:49 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 1448(+271)/16575(+448) in 14 theaters. $20,272 with $14 ATP

 

T-2 days Friday: 2262(+431)/51703 in 14 theaters. $30,537 with $13.50 ATP

I could only do shows post 7 PM, so missed 5-7PM shows. If you have them listed, that may help.

 

In 61 shows I counted 2719/16564 booked. Number of seats are almost same as last day, so probably they added more shows. Avg occupancy for post 7 is 16.5%, almost doubled 8.7% number of yesterday.

Edited June 25, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

~90 minutes after this it was at 70,452 tickets sold.

~90 minutes afer that it was at 74,649.

Currently (after another 90 minutes again) it is at 80,600.

This was at 4PM PT and 7PM ET. 6K pace when shows started in East and Central zone. 

Probably another 8K in next 90.

and 8K in next 90.

 

Post that East Coast should slow.

 

Then 15K in next 4 hours perhaps. 

Give or take 115K final I guess or about $1.55M. $8.5-9M. Will need MTC 1 to be more accurate. @keysersoze123

Edited June 25, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Since avg occupancy will remain like 20% or so, having 200-300 theaters missing in US wouldn't be any headache. Though if some place has like all its theaters closed, that will impact business, instead of like something having 10 theaters and 2 of them are closed.

 

The most impact will be in Canada, which has like 1 state closed, so there it will be like 50% of box office missing. 2 cinemas not opening out of say 30 in Sacramento shouldn't be that big an issue as business will probably move to 28, unless the 2 theaters closed had like Niche audience of going just there.

 

I am not aware of local, Pacific seems like one of those chains mentioned in last line. So if any AMC or Cinemark in vicinity of these Arclight/Pacific theaters should get their business.

[Menor the Destroyer]

42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This was at 4PM PT and 7PM ET. 6K pace when shows started in East and Central zone. 

Probably another 8K in next 90.

and 8K in next 90.

 

Post that East Coast should slow.

 

Then 15K in next 4 hours perhaps. 

Give or take 115K final I guess or about $1.55M. $8.5-9M. Will need MTC 1 to be more accurate. @keysersoze123

100,337 as of about 20 minutes ago. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:45pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	0	170	17331	20721	3390	16.36%

 

Showings Where Cap Was Reached	2
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	190
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	491

 

T-0 *****BENCHMARKS***** (see below for explanation)

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Preview Number
AQP II *FINAL* (adj)	---		845	3084		36/139	2049/5133	60.08%		4.8m
F9 Mid-Day (adj)	---		488	3320		0/170	17281/20601	16.12%		---

 

T-0 *****BENCHMARKS***** (see below for explanation)

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Preview Number
H&S *FINAL* (adj)	----		----	2630		0/111	9423/12053	21.82%		5.8m
Wick 3 *FINAL* (adj)	---		----	2722		0/62	5225/7947	34.25%		5.9m
F9 Mid-Day (adj)	---		466	3243		0/170	13836/17079	18.99%		???

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

I was out and about when I would normally do a mid-day track for AQP II so I couldn't make an update then and I only can make approximations for H&S and Wick 3, so instead I set up benchmarks for F9 to compare to for the rest of the day.

 

If I want to spitball, it looks like John Wick 3 probably sold around 350 tickets by mid-day (versus F9's 466) and H&S probably sold around 425 tickets by mid-day (versus F9's 466).

 

So, F9 is beating both of them on day of sales, and is on pace to beat AQP II's day of sales as well.  Just have to see what the rest of the day brings.

 

Can't give much better info than that, but I do think the benchmarks are of some interest, and I'll be able to comp against all three when I do the final report.

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:30pm - 6:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	0	161	15341	19748	4407	22.32%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Noon-ish	9*
Total Seats Removed Since Noon-ish	973
Total Seats Sold Since Noon-ish	1017

* NOTE:  Cinemark removed a few 11pm+ showings at some locations late today.  Justified IMO, as I thot they were overbooked so it doesn't speak much to how F9 did today.

 

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	140.18%		845	3084		36/139	2049/5133	60.08%		6.7m
F9 (adj)	---		1491	4323		0/161	15305/19628	22.02%		---

 

T-0 Alternate Comp

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
H&S (adj)	159.89		----	2630		0/111	9423/12053	21.82%		9.3m
Wick 3 (adj)	154.48		----	2722		0/62	5225/7947	34.25%		9.1m
F9 (adj)	---		1428	4205		0/161	12296/16501	25.48%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

Thoughts and official "call" in next post

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:30pm - 6:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	0	161	15341	19748	4407	22.32%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Noon-ish	9*
Total Seats Removed Since Noon-ish	973
Total Seats Sold Since Noon-ish	1017

* NOTE:  Cinemark removed a few 11pm+ showings at some locations late today.  Justified IMO, as I thot they were overbooked so it doesn't speak much to how F9 did today.

 

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	140.18%		845	3084		36/139	2049/5133	60.08%		6.7m
F9 (adj)	---		1491	4323		0/161	15305/19628	22.02%		---

 

T-0 Alternate Comp

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
H&S (adj)	159.89		----	2630		0/111	9423/12053	21.82%		9.3m
Wick 3 (adj)	154.48		----	2722		0/62	5225/7947	34.25%		9.1m
F9 (adj)	---		1428	4205		0/161	12296/16501	25.48%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

Thoughts and official "call" in next post

 

Well then. 

 

Juuuuuuuust a bit better in Sacto than it originally looked like.

 

So we got two clear worlds here.  One where, somehow, AQP II is the leading indicator.  Another where everything is peaches and creme.   But things aren't peaches and creme, if only for the lack of Ontario plus some lingering caps.  

 

Still... 

 

If I adjust the Wick 3/H&S comp downward by 5%, I get 8.7m-8.8m.  If I adjust AQP II up by 5%, I get 7.1m.  If I adjust each by 10% up and down, I get 8.2m-8.3m and 7.4m respectively.

 

You know what?  AQP II really sounds like the outlier.  I'm realize I'm sticking my neck out a bit, but considering what other trackers have (aside from @Inceptionzq), I'll go for 8.4m +/- .4m.  

 

That error bar is hella high, but I still don't know how much to adjust for lack of Ontario and the other missing screens in the US.

 

Maybe it will be 9m+.  Just don't feel comfortable calling for that. 

 

Now?  Now we wait. 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Porthos
Darn fat fingers slipped - minor edit made

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

100,337 as of about 20 minutes ago. 

20K in 140 minutes?

 

Well, guess 120-130K is happening. $8.5-10M. 

 

That will mean THU had 2.5x PSm at high end, Friday shall have that much for sure. This thing is opening 65-70.

Edited June 25, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

F9 currently has 108k tickets sold for Thursday. At the same point Keyser had AQP2 at 69k (64k adj). But walk-ups seem pretty strong for F9 and I think it will have an advantage in ATP. So I will go with 8.5-9.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

F9 currently has 108k tickets sold for Thursday. At the same point Keyser had AQP2 at 69k (64k adj). But walk-ups seem pretty strong for F9 and I think it will have an advantage in ATP. So I will go with 8.5-9.

But AQP2 had better MTC1 ratio. Hopefully @keysersoze123 makes an appearance.

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1767	16722	10.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp

0.456x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (4.42M)

2.121x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-15 Before Release (20.58M)

0.898x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Final Count (4.31M)

0.341x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri Final Count (6.61M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1850	16722	11.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 83

 

Comp

0.477x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (4.63M)

2.074x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-14 Before Release (20.13M)

0.940x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Final Count (4.51M)

0.357x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri Final Count (6.92M)

[keysersoze123]

On 6/23/2021 at 5:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:

I unfortunately dont either have the time or energy to debug at this point. 

 

Anyway MTC1 data for F9. 

Previews - 67647/506916 965359.00 3034 shows

Friday -  91549/1083834 1174406.00 6086 shows

 

Dramatic increase in showcount as expected. If MTC1 is around 20% then high single digit or even double digit previews are possible with good walkups. Since Fast movies target audience outside big markets as well, I expect MTC1 share to be lower than for other blockbusters. Friday looks like 15m+ at this point, may be even close to 20m if walkups are good. So somewhere around 50-65m OW at this point. Still meh relative to what Fast series have done previously but this looks like beating AQP2 for sure. 

 

F9 MTC1

Previews - 131637/518700 1770173.00 3198 shows

Friday PS - 143293/1103847 1765561.00 6282 shows

 

I am thinking 9m previews. OD PS is not bad at all. Based on walkups seen today, I think it should have a mid to late teens friday. 60m+ OW is happening I think .