The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

12 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

How about Respect 

 

71 tickets sold is the same that Roadrunner had Tuesday morning before release.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Deadline projection for Free Guy is actually going to happen, isn't it?

Edited August 10, 2021 by BadOlCatSylvester

[katnisscinnaplex]

Jacksonville weekend sales by day with comps.  I plugged some previews in to see where they would point to for the weekend.   All sales were pulled Tuesday morning before release

 

Don't Breathe - $650k

Respect - $200k

Free Guy - $2.2m

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Don't Breathe 2	24	35	28	5	92
The Forever Purge	24	25	5	7	61	$9,250,000
Escape Room 2	32	31	20	4	87	$8,300,000
Respect	18	67	57	20	162
Roadrunner	29	36	24	14	103	$5,040,000
Free Guy	116	116	62	54	348
Jungle Cruise	116	182	131	53	482	$20,600,000
Snake Eyes	74	63	42	35	214	$21,800,000

[charlie Jatinder]

SC sales on Sunday Night apparently. So prepare accordingly.

[Menor the Destroyer]

That's an...interesting time. Early tracking is definitely gonna be annoying to compare. Though iirc CM did something similar? (it was associated with some football broadcast I think). 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

That's an...interesting time. Early tracking is definitely gonna be annoying to compare. Though iirc CM did something similar? (it was associated with some football broadcast I think). 

 

Unless it is a super event like a SW saga film or an Avengers film, just roll them in to the next day is my motto.

[WrathOfHan]

Full showtimes are up on Thursday. The 6:00 standard show for Free Guy was converted to IMAX, so all sales have been ported over in a straight line:

 

Free Guy:

6:00 IMAX: 17/372 (+4)

7:15 3D: 7/77 (+1)

9:00 IMAX: 1/372 (New)

Total: 25/714 (+6/+637)

 

Comps:

 

7% of Black Widow Previews the day before (925k)

19% of F9 Previews three days out (1.3M)

23% of AQP2 Previews two days out (1.1M)

29% of Jungle Cruise Previews (785k)

30% of The Suicide Squad Previews two days out (1.2M)

104% of Old Previews two days out (1.6M)

104% of Snake Eyes Previews two days out (1.5M)

 

 

...Blech, and things were looking so well a couple days ago.

 

Respect:

7:00 Dolby: 12/236 (+1)

7:00 with Live Q&A: 0/107 (-)

Total: 12/343 (+1)

 

It's running at 18% of ITH Friday two days out (910k). Not bad, but I want to see standard sales increase first.

 

Don't Breathe 2: 

7:30: 8/107 (+4)

9:00: 0/107 (New)

Total: 8/214 (+4/+107)

 

Comps:

 

7% of AQP2 Previews two days out (335k)

10% of The Suicide Squad Previews two days out (410k)

32% of Old Previews two days out (480k) 

32% of Snake Eyes Previews two days out (450k)

33% of Escape Room 2 Previews two days out (400k)

133% of Forever Purge Previews two days out (1.7M)

 

Unless this has Purge-level walkups, it's fucked. Might not even hit 4M for the weekend.

[Eric Prime]

So...are we now allowed to say Delta's finally impacting stuff? Free Guy's collapse from everybody here is inexplicable and I'm getting a lot of "my fall plans/The Delta Variant" memes on my timeline today.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I'm starting to think Black Widow might just be the only Marvel movie for this year. No way in hell those Shang-Chi tickets are going on sale next week. They can't do a dual release again thanks to ScarJo.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:

So...are we now allowed to say Delta's finally impacting stuff? Free Guy's collapse from everybody here is inexplicable and I'm getting a lot of "my fall plans/The Delta Variant" memes on my timeline today.

Yes, it's very clear at this point. As cases increase, so are breakthrough infections, and more people are seeing their friends/family get it. I know at least one person who has a breakthrough infection and will probably hear about another soon.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

They can't do a dual release again thanks to ScarJo.

Of course they can, no one in Shang Chi have the same privilege of Scarlett to be able to sue them.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:

So...are we now allowed to say Delta's finally impacting stuff? Free Guy's collapse from everybody here is inexplicable and I'm getting a lot of "my fall plans/The Delta Variant" memes on my timeline today.

covid always had an impact it depends on how much , if this week we have good dailies for the movies and the next weekend the holdovers hold well then i would say that no it wasnt covid (thats in case that free guy underperforms).....

[BadOlCatSylvester]

5 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:

So...are we now allowed to say Delta's finally impacting stuff? Free Guy's collapse from everybody here is inexplicable and I'm getting a lot of "my fall plans/The Delta Variant" memes on my timeline today.

The fall slate is going to be even drier than Arrakis. ^{Ironically Dune is likely the only blockbuster guaranteed for this year now}

[john2000]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yes, it's very clear at this point. As cases increase, so are breakthrough infections, and more people are seeing their friends/family get it. I know at least one person who has a breakthrough infection and will probably hear about another soon.

the cases are relively stable and these past 2 days there was also a  decrease so.......

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm starting to think Black Widow might just be the only Marvel movie for this year. No way in hell those Shang-Chi tickets are going on sale next week. They can't do a dual release again thanks to ScarJo.

Nah, that shit's going dual release and Chapek will do anything to Papa Feige to make this happen.

 

I know people don't like me saying this, but even ScarJo isn't persuading me otherwise. And if you don't like me saying all this, just know you're free to ignore me.

[john2000]

Just now, Eric Quinn said:

Nah, that shit's going dual release and Chapek will do anything to Papa Feige to make this happen.

 

I know people don't like me saying this, but even ScarJo isn't persuading me otherwise. And if you don't like me saying all this, just know you're free to ignore me.

well their q3 is in 2 days we will know soon enough......

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:

So...are we now allowed to say Delta's finally impacting stuff? Free Guy's collapse from everybody here is inexplicable and I'm getting a lot of "my fall plans/The Delta Variant" memes on my timeline today.

Delta has been impacting things for a while, but I don't think that has much to do with Free Guy's presale trend (Delta was impacting things when its tickets went on sale, too). A lot of optimism last week came from Jungle Cruise comps, but that one had a legit draw in the Rock (compared to RR who is unproven) and was more of a family movie which tends to draw walkups. 

[john2000]

even in pre covid times free guys perfomance was always uncertain especially as an original IP imo the holdovers (-ss) and shang chi if it remains theater exlusive , will tell the tale......

[Tinalera]

Its been a busy week after the weekend, I have not had time to catch up on anything, and got crud ton of stuff this week. Don't know if Ill be doing Free Guy this week, just too much going on, don't know if Toronto sales will make that much dent one way or other for Free Guy.

 

Will definitely start following Shang Chi once tickets go on sale next week. 

[titanic2187]

Perhaps we need some canada number to know if Delta is impacting USA box office since Canada covid situation is largely contained.