The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC2 is quite ahead. Per Keyser MTC2 was $611K for BoP, which in reality would be around $575K, while here its $700K. So I suppose smaller chains did better than BoP. Harkins was quite strong.

Combined it's like 1.92 vs 1.8 of BOP, with the coverage we have now BOP probably would be over 2m combined.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor reminded me of possible comps with BoP. Friday PS in MTC 1 are 80% of BoP. Yikes. BoP being a feb release had SAT jump to make things a bit better, donno if in August there will be any jump in first place. Would guess 7-7.5M Friday I suppose. Worst case scenario $23M OW may be. That's Mortal Kombat numbers. How on earth that is possible. MK didn't even had Canada and much lower ATP.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor reminded me of possible comps with BoP. Friday PS in MTC 1 are 80% of BoP. Yikes. BoP being a feb release had SAT jump to make things a bit better, donno if in August there will be any jump in first place. Would guess 7-7.5M Friday I suppose. Worst case scenario $23M OW may be. That's Mortal Kombat numbers. How on earth that is possible. MK didn't even had Canada and much lower ATP.

 It's around the same unadjusted. If factoring in the greater coverage then yeah it may be only 80%-90%. Still walkups yesterday were solid, so let's just wait and see.

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor reminded me of possible comps with BoP. Friday PS in MTC 1 are 80% of BoP. Yikes. BoP being a feb release had SAT jump to make things a bit better, donno if in August there will be any jump in first place. Would guess 7-7.5M Friday I suppose. Worst case scenario $23M OW may be. That's Mortal Kombat numbers. How on earth that is possible. MK didn't even had Canada and much lower ATP.

Ooh $23m from $4m previews would be an even worse multiplier than Black Widow??
 

Hoping for $30m+ but nothing in this thread seems to suggest that now, unfortunately. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Ooh $23m from $4m previews would be an even worse multiplier than Black Widow??
 

Hoping for $30m+ but nothing in this thread seems to suggest that now, unfortunately. 

DC is more previews loaded than Marvel so not a surprise

[efialtes76]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DC is more previews loaded than Marvel so not a surprise

Aquaman did $68M From 9M in previews(7.5X).

Joker $96M From $13M(7.8X).

Even SS did 6.6X on August and with much bigger numbers.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Aquaman did $68M From 9M in previews(7.5X).

Joker $96M From $13M(7.8X).

Even SS did 6.6X on August and with much bigger numbers.

To judge preview loaded ness Friday to Previews ratio is much better measure as weekend can change due to SAT jump, which Summer movies get smaller than non-summer. 

 

DC has been preview loaded since decades. MCU is now catching up with ageing fanbase.

 

Joker was more preview than much bigger opener Captain Marvel at 33.8% as compared to 33.5% of CM.

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[el sid]

TSS counted today at 9am EST (2 hours before the first show in NY starts) for Friday, August 6:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 400 (no cheating, it was exactly that number^^, 11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 229 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 73 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 89 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 426 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 855 (20 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.095 (+535 seats).
Up 34% since yesterday. Way better.
H&S had 3.409 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters and at the same time so TSS reached 61.5% (= 36.9M OW). Problem is, I guess H&S had really good walk-ups and the recent reports for TSS went in the right direction but still, I'm only cautiously optimistic.

[Cmasterclay]

If it really gets up to $4m in previews, it would have clearly overperformed in walk ups/day of sales compared to what we expected, so it's not particularly unreasonable to expect Friday numbers to do the same. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DC is more previews loaded than Marvel so not a surprise

That’s a bit of a generalisation, we haven’t had a DC film open with previews during the pandemic until now…

 

Black Widow has the worst preview to weekend multiplier of the year and started at 5pm.
 

That’s why I said it would be a bit of a surprise if TSS was as frontloaded. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

That’s a bit of a generalisation, we haven’t had a DC film open with previews during the pandemic until now…

Ofc it's generalisation. Though correct line would be to say, DC was way more previews loaded than MCU, the gap has reduced a lot in last few years, now they are almost even.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Shouldn't we be getting Thursday numbers right about now? Or is it bad enough that studios are holding back as much as they can?

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It did fairly well in final few hours.

 

SS Previews Final

MTC1 - 78737/300279 1227843.05 1651 shows

MTC2 - 54078(DBOX adjusted) roughly 700K 2072 shows

 

~ 3.8m previews,

 

Edit: On second thoughts that seem low. May be it will do 4.2m or so. But I am not sure. I expect smaller chains to do worse relative to performance at MTC1. 

You were first to go over 4m, so well done again! $4.1m previews. 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Shouldn't we be getting Thursday numbers right about now? Or is it bad enough that studios are holding back as much as they can?

No holding back. It’s always between 4pm-5pm UK time, so it’s 4.25pm just now and the preview number is $4.1m. Bang on time. 

[Madhuvan]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Shouldn't we be getting Thursday numbers right about now? Or is it bad enough that studios are holding back as much as they can?

Warner Bros hasn't been reporting them for while now.

[Madhuvan]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

No holding back. It’s always between 4pm-5pm UK time, so it’s 4.25pm just now and the preview number is $4.1m. Bang on time. 

That's really good. Walkups were really good , which means 30m+ is still very possible.

[SnokesLegs]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

You were first to go over 4m, so well done again! $4.1m previews. 

Good walk ups then just like the UK saw last week despite the weak presales. Hopefully the US follows suit. Fingers crossed for at least $30 million.

[Inceptionzq]

14 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow comp: 4.10M

 

The Black Widow comp is pretty encouraging to me for 4M previews, but I'll play on the safe side of my comps and go with 3.8M.

Guess that BW comp was a good indicator. I was wrong in the end though

[Menor the Destroyer]

It may end up hitting my 26 million projection from a couple of days ago (before the weak Wednesday made me drop it). Hoping for low 8s Friday, that would require pretty strong walkups but given yesterday I think it is doable. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Menor

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/3/2021 at 10:44 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Jacksonville weekend sales by day (taken Tuesday morning)

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
Suicide Squad	241	161	126	61	589
Fast & Furious 9	489	674	443	197	1,803
Black Widow	1,310	972	584	278	3,144
Jungle Cruise	116	182	131	53	482

 

I ran a few projections with different preview numbers to see where they would mult out to; here are the averages:

 

Preview - Avg Projected OW

3m - 20.37m

3.5m - 23.76m

4m - 27.15m

4.5m - 30.55m

5m - 33.94m

 

If we jump forward to where each of these ended up, we're looking for around 1,600 for TSS to stay on pace.

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
Suicide Squad	?	?	?	?	?
Fast & Furious 9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553
Black Widow	2,333	2,445	1,206	582	6,566
Jungle Cruise	404	758	387	119	1,668

 

Filled in the weekend sales for TSS for Jacksonville.  As you can see, much more frontloaded (th/fri ratio) than any of the comps.  While walk-ups definitely played a part in that, it'll need that to continue throughout the weekend to come anywhere close to $30m.  

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Suicide Squad	665	492	289	115	1,561
Fast & Furious 9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553	$24,085,566
Black Widow	2,333	2,445	1,206	582	6,566	$20,819,921
Jungle Cruise	404	758	387	119	1,668	$30,233,406
Space Jam	0	1,557	460	148	2,165	$22,389,976

 

 

Notes: Th sales in chart are from 1hr before previews started; Fr, Sat and Sun sales are taken on Friday mornings.  The comp predictions use sales/gross ratio factoring in the preview sales/gross ratio from TSS as it compared to the others.