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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Per EC, Shang-Chi tickets go on sale next Mon:

 

 

(taken from the Shang-Chi thread)

A much shorter presale run than BW. Day 1 will be inflated as a result I guess. This one will be interesting to track as I have little clue how it's going to open, while I felt I had a better idea of the range for BW.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Menor said:

A much shorter presale run than BW. Day 1 will be inflated as a result I guess. 

 

Completely different genre, but a quick glance at my masterlist has it as the same pre-sale length as Frozen 2.

 

Shame about the pandemic, but it miiiiiight have a decent gauge on the fan-rush angle before the differing pre-sale patterns take hold.  Aside from that, not many other comps to deal with with that length of pre-sales.

 

Since I've seen some optimistic OW thoughts, probs gonna track this. Be good to get a sense of how it is out of the gate, anyways as a compare/contrast with other recent films, even with noting the compressed pre-sale period.

Edited by Porthos
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Menor said:

A much shorter presale run than BW. Day 1 will be inflated as a result I guess. This one will be interesting to track as I have little clue how it's going to open, while I felt I had a better idea of the range for BW.

I suppose it won't be all that different on day one, just that down part of U graph that films have will be higher than BW a bit relatively 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose it won't be all that different on day one, just that down part of U graph that films have will be higher than BW a bit relatively 

I agree that it will probably be par BW on day one, but that's because I think it will open less than BW. At least in 2019 there was a consistent trend of short presale periods having very inflated D1s. TS4 and F2 come to mind, although those were a different genre. I don't remember TS4's length but it was definitely significantly shorter than I2 which led to a bigger D1 despite overall presales being nowhere near. F2 I remember it's D1 was absolutely ridiculous and higher than TLK I believe, despite final PS ending up lower. 

 

Edit: Forgot Joker. That one didn't have as big of a day one iirc (but would need to go back and check to be sure). But it was more of a late bloomer in terms of hype than the other two I mentioned. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose it won't be all that different on day one, just that down part of U graph that films have will be higher than BW a bit relatively 

 

It had an even more compressed calendar than Shang-Chi will have, but one can see this with Joker's pre-sales, which only had 11 days:

 

Quote

Joker    
T-10:    666
T-9:    211
T-8:    138
T-7:    169
T-6:    174
T-5:    111
T-4:    302
T-3:    367
T-2:    532
T-1:    1041
T-0:    1792

 

And that's with Joker massively under-performing locally.

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

Posted
Posted

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 15 121 2505 4.83%

 

Comp

0.120x of Conjuring 3 T-3 (1.18M)

1.833x of Forever Purge T-3 (2.44M)

1.287x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (1.54M)

0.896x of Old T-3 (1.34M)

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

Posted
Posted
On 8/8/2021 at 10:58 PM, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 32 121 6694 1.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

1.152x of Snake Eyes T-4 (1.61M)

0.812x of Jungle Cruise T-4 (2.19M)

 

Not a great day, but this is all about Monday through Thursday, and other people reported better sales today.

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 35 155 7501 2.07%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 807

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Comp

1.033x of Snake Eyes T-3 (1.45M)

0.866x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (2.34M)

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

Posted
Posted

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 20 103 2706 3.81%

 

Comp

0.243x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-3 (906K)

0.204x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-3 (1.57M)

0.063x of Space Jam 2 Fri T-3 (824K)

 

Just to clarify, yes I know Spiral and Space Jam 2 are weird comps, but Black-led movies overindex here in Philly and these are the two best options I have. Either way, those numbers sound about right even in normal times and don't seem to signal anything bad in terms of the overall weekend.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

One thing that didn't dawn on me til now for Shang Chi.  If schools are back in your area, will the theaters be staying open weekdays for either full days or at all?  Has the industry turned the corner this summer to full normalcy, at least for regular days/hours, or do we think they might fall back to pandemic single full time shifting (which in my area either led to closed M-Th in the beginning, and then just 4/7pm shows for M-Th as things improved til this summer)...

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, free guy. You're Harkins tracking post shows nothing. Unless that was intentional, idk.

Oh. I thought you meant the post had a double meaning. I had used "Yawn emoji" Free Guy at Harkins.

 

Only 3 tickets were sold, so I didn't made a post. Need Cine1 showtimes.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 8/9/2021 at 9:32 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-3 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 16 4 1.33%
    Phoenix 4 6 612 6 0 0.98%
    Raleigh 6 11 1,199 8 2 0.67%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     15 25 3,010 30 6 1.00%
Free Guy T-3 Jacksonville 6 27 4,347 92 10 2.12%
    Phoenix 6 15 2,604 105 7 4.03%
    Raleigh 7 17 1,961 108 10 5.51%
Free Guy Total     19 59 8,912 305 27 3.42%
Respect T-3 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 14 3 0.91%
    Phoenix 6 10 1,270 13 4 1.02%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 37 4 2.28%
Respect Total     17 30 4,435 64 11 1.44%

 

Didn't have time to check next week's releases yet.  Free Guy didn't do as well on Sunday as JC did, but it still has a good lead.  Currently pacing for 3.44m against JC.  

 

Don't Breathe is <50% of where ER2 and FP were at this point.  The closest comp I have is...Stillwater, which was at 26 tickets sold.  A little surprised with how well the first one performed.  I guess this is another unwanted sequel coming out too late.

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-2 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 24 8 2.00%
    Phoenix 4 6 612 13 7 2.12%
    Raleigh 7 12 1,317 15 7 1.14%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     16 26 3,128 52 22 1.66%
Free Guy T-2 Jacksonville 6 27 4,347 116 24 2.67%
    Phoenix 6 15 2,604 112 7 4.30%
    Raleigh 7 18 2,055 123 15 5.99%
Free Guy Total     19 60 9,006 351 46 3.90%
Paw Patrol (Friday) T-10 Jacksonville 3 10 1,080 10 10 0.93%
    Phoenix 6 16 2,557 26 26 1.02%
    Raleigh 2 8 676 40 40 5.92%
Paw Patrol (Friday) Total     11 34 4,313 76 76 1.76%
Reminiscence (Friday) T-10 Jacksonville 5 18 2,646 3 3 0.11%
    Phoenix 6 23 3,008 0 0 0.00%
    Raleigh 6 24 3,285 0 0 0.00%
Reminiscence (Friday) Total     17 65 8,939 3 3 0.03%
Respect T-2 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 18 4 1.17%
    Phoenix 6 10 1,270 13 0 1.02%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 40 3 2.47%
Respect Total     17 30 4,435 71 7 1.60%
The Night House T-9 Jacksonville 5 8 811 3 3 0.37%
    Phoenix 5 8 878 2 2 0.23%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,484 3 3 0.20%
The Night House Total     16 28 3,173 8 8 0.25%
The Protégé T-9 Jacksonville 5 8 970 3 3 0.31%
    Phoenix 6 9 1,370 2 2 0.15%
    Raleigh 6 11 1,328 8 8 0.60%
The Protégé Total     17 28 3,668 13 13 0.35%

 

Had a little free time this morning so I took a look at next week's openers.  Paw Patrol seems to be the only one doing much; I saw a couple of shows for next Tuesday but didn't think they'd be worth tracking.  No Thursday shows for Paw Patrol or Reminiscence but there are plenty of other Friday openers to compare to by now. 

 

Free Guy is quickly losing the lead it had over Jungle Cruise.  It's still ahead 351-328 which would give it around 2.89m, but I don't see that sticking at all - especially with how MTC sales are looking overall.  

 

Don't Breathe 2 is staying around 50% of Forever Purge and Escape Room 2, both of which had sold 102 tickets at this point. 

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Nikostar Sleeper Hit

Nikostar

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Don't Breathe 2 T-2 Jacksonville 5 8 1,199 24 8 2.00%
    Phoenix 4 6 612 13 7 2.12%
    Raleigh 7 12 1,317 15 7 1.14%
Don't Breathe 2 Total     16 26 3,128 52 22 1.66%
Free Guy T-2 Jacksonville 6 27 4,347 116 24 2.67%
    Phoenix 6 15 2,604 112 7 4.30%
    Raleigh 7 18 2,055 123 15 5.99%
Free Guy Total     19 60 9,006 351 46 3.90%
Paw Patrol (Friday) T-10 Jacksonville 3 10 1,080 10 10 0.93%
    Phoenix 6 16 2,557 26 26 1.02%
    Raleigh 2 8 676 40 40 5.92%
Paw Patrol (Friday) Total     11 34 4,313 76 76 1.76%
Reminiscence (Friday) T-10 Jacksonville 5 18 2,646 3 3 0.11%
    Phoenix 6 23 3,008 0 0 0.00%
    Raleigh 6 24 3,285 0 0 0.00%
Reminiscence (Friday) Total     17 65 8,939 3 3 0.03%
Respect T-2 Jacksonville 5 8 1,544 18 4 1.17%
    Phoenix 6 10 1,270 13 0 1.02%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,621 40 3 2.47%
Respect Total     17 30 4,435 71 7 1.60%
The Night House T-9 Jacksonville 5 8 811 3 3 0.37%
    Phoenix 5 8 878 2 2 0.23%
    Raleigh 6 12 1,484 3 3 0.20%
The Night House Total     16 28 3,173 8 8 0.25%
The Protégé T-9 Jacksonville 5 8 970 3 3 0.31%
    Phoenix 6 9 1,370 2 2 0.15%
    Raleigh 6 11 1,328 8 8 0.60%
The Protégé Total     17 28 3,668 13 13 0.35%

 

Had a little free time this morning so I took a look at next week's openers.  Paw Patrol seems to be the only one doing much; I saw a couple of shows for next Tuesday but didn't think they'd be worth tracking.  No Thursday shows for Paw Patrol or Reminiscence but there are plenty of other Friday openers to compare to by now. 

 

Free Guy is quickly losing the lead it had over Jungle Cruise.  It's still ahead 351-328 which would give it around 2.89m, but I don't see that sticking at all - especially with how MTC sales are looking overall.  

 

Don't Breathe 2 is staying around 50% of Forever Purge and Escape Room 2, both of which had sold 102 tickets at this point. 

How about Respect 

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