The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

Final run for the first two movies (T-1 hour).  New sales = new since this morning's run.

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	1,155	302	13.90%
	Phoenix	7	58	8,498	1,150	188	13.53%
	Raleigh	8	46	4,985	1,531	289	30.71%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		21	151	21,795	3,836	779	17.60%
Free Guy	Jacksonville	6	28	4,412	288	107	6.53%
	Phoenix	7	20	3,138	286	67	9.11%
	Raleigh	7	19	2,097	295	122	14.07%
Free Guy Total		20	67	9,647	869	296	9.01%
Jungle Cruise	Jacksonville	5	32	5,417	404	166	7.46%
	Phoenix	7	28	4,233	309	103	7.30%
	Raleigh	8	32	3,646	389	151	10.67%
Jungle Cruise Total		20	92	13,296	1,102	420	8.29%
Snake Eyes	Jacksonville	5	18	3,118	217	85	6.96%
	Phoenix	7	16	3,110	197	59	6.33%
	Raleigh	8	17	2,182	273	129	12.51%
Snake Eyes Total		20	51	8,410	687	273	8.17%

 

Free Guy now down to 1.83m using the comps above.  JC puts it at 2.13 so I'd lean on the higher side (maybe up to 2m) seeing as how the other two should have been more presale heavy.

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Respect	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	51	18	3.30%
	Phoenix	7	11	1,310	80	45	6.11%
	Raleigh	7	14	1,739	112	30	6.44%
Respect Total		19	33	4,593	243	93	5.29%
Stillwater	Jacksonville	5	10	1,409	40	16	2.84%
	Phoenix	6	9	914	30	13	3.28%
	Raleigh	7	11	1,111	64	38	5.76%
Stillwater Total		18	30	3,434	134	67	3.90%
Roadrunner	Jacksonville	4	5		100	36
	Phoenix	4	6		38	7
	Raleigh	4	5		46	3
Roadrunner Total		12	16		184	46

 

Still going to say around 500k tonight for Respect.  More intrigued for the number from the Sunday shows and if they get rolled in.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Final run for Don't Breathe 2 (T-1 hour) and comps.  Sales looking good to possibly break 1m now.  

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	136	75	11.34%
	Phoenix	7	11	1,056	88	34	8.33%
	Raleigh	7	12	1,317	152	96	11.54%
Don't Breathe 2 Total		19	31	3,572	376	205	10.53%
Escape Room 2	Jacksonville	5	17	2,579	187	96	7.25%
	Phoenix	5	18	2,660	94	15	3.53%
	Raleigh	8	28	2,738	173	96	6.32%
Escape Room 2 Total		18	63	7,977	454	207	5.69%
Old	Jacksonville	5	13	2,752	181	100	6.58%
	Phoenix	7	16	2,031	264	116	13.00%
	Raleigh	8	14	1,300	215	116	16.54%
Old Total		20	43	6,083	660	332	10.85%
The Forever Purge	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	127	67	6.42%
	Phoenix	7	17	1,781	133	49	7.47%
	Raleigh	7	14	1,267	142	64	11.21%
The Forever Purge Total		19	43	5,026	402	180	8.00%

[WrathOfHan]

Well, my theater decided it'd be a good weekend to have 6 screens (including Dolby!) offline, so sales tonight are a bit wonky:

 

Free Guy:

6:00 IMAX: 28/372 (note: this is where it was around 4; final sales were probably a little higher but not by much given how light walkups are for the other shows)

7:15 3D: 14/77

8:30: 9/40

9:15 IMAX: 8/372

Total: 59/861

 

Comps:

 

9% of Black Widow (1.2M)

21% of F9 (1.5M)

40% of The Suicide Squad (1.6M)

68% of Jungle Cruise (1.8M)

118% of Snake Eyes (1.7M)

 

1.7M is my guess based on the low walkups. Hopefully the weekend fares better.

 

Don't Breathe:

7:30: 36/107

9:00: 22/107

Total: 58/214

 

Comps:

 

69% of Conjuring 3 Friday the day before (6.3M)

78% of Old (1.2M)

108% of Escape Room 2 (1.3M)

276% of The Forever Purge (3.6M)

 

 

Uhhh, walkups are big for this.... wow. It'll match the Old/Escape Room comps.

 

Respect: 32/107

 

This is on par if not slightly higher than ITH's Thursday. 10-12M for the weekend sounds right with the potential for more if it over indexes in some areas.
 

[lorddemaxus]

Don't Breathe 2 winning the wekeend would be nice. People keep underestimating horror this summer eventhough it's generally done quite well this season.

[AdrianL]

Weird Candyman tickets aren't on sale yet. Think it can do well. 

[Eric Prime]

20 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	297	3497	8.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 117

 

Comp

0.196x of Conjuring 3 1 Day Before Release (1.93M)

1.993x of Forever Purge T-1 (2.65M)

1.160x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (1.39M)

1.129x of Old T-1 (1.69M)

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	1025	3497	8.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 728

 

Comp

0.521x of Quiet Place 2 (2.50M)

0.400x of Conjuring 3 (3.92M)

1.400x of Forever Purge (1.86M)

1.773x of Escape Room 2 (2.13M)

1.200x of Old (1.80M)

 

Umm...wow.

[Eric Prime]

20 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	304	9187	3.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp

1.169x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.64M)

0.971x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (2.62M)

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	700	9187	7.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 396

 

Comp

0.356x of A Quiet Place 2 (1.71M)

1.711x of Cruella (2.40M)

1.074x of Snake Eyes (1.50M)

0.888x of Jungle Cruise (2.40M)

 

The Disney comps point in a good direction, while the older-skewing comps point elsewhere. Free Guy probably won't have as large of a family audience compared to the other two, so I guess lean more on Quiet Place 2 I suppose?

[Eric Prime]

20 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	256	3910	4.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

0.329x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-1 (1.23M)

0.321x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-1 (2.47M)

0.097x of Space Jam 2 1 Day Before Release (1.27M)

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	480	3910	4.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 298

 

Comp

0.373x of Spiral Thu+Fri (1.39M)

1.174x of Cruella's Thu (1.64M)

0.109x of Space Jam 2 (1.42M)

[Nikostar]

Wait so now don’t breathe 2 and respect may overperform?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Free Guy at 20,046 in the last run at MTC2. That's 0.7x JC at the same point which comps to 1.89m. Walkups have been pretty good. 

[ThomasNicole]

Well if FG do over 20M (which is very possible with around 2M previews) and both Don't Breathe and Respect actually overperform while JC drop just a little i think we can call this a good weekend.

 

The only doubt here is TSS since we don't have even dailies.

 

Anyway, if everything goes right maybe we can have some relief and positive headlines after the doom and gloom of last weekend. Fingers crossed.

[ThomasNicole]

33 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Weird Candyman tickets aren't on sale yet. Think it can do well. 

If DB2 seems like it could do well i think Candyman will too, timing as bad but people was excited about this when trailers drop.

 

I think tickets will go on sale next week like SC.

[lorddemaxus]

Free Guy doing just around $20 mil while something like Don't Breath 2 reaches within $5 mil of that just shows that releasing high-budget shit is just still not sustainable. I guess its a better result than last weekend. But still pretty bad.

[Cmasterclay]

Don't Breathe 2 overperforming would be a big win for the ole trailer views partisans. 

[Inceptionzq]

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 433 tickets sold in 13 theaters

 

 

Thursday would need to go almost 4x from now to match Jungle Cruise. Didn't track it for Friday

Free Guy Megaplex:

 

T-0 days Thursday: 1186(+753) tickets sold in 14 theaters

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.89M

Black Widow comp: 1.89M

 

Same number here as @Menor...

Edited August 13, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Jamiem]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Free Guy doing just around $20 mil while something like Don't Breath 2 reaches within $5 mil of that just shows that releasing high-budget shit is just still not sustainable. I guess its a better result than last weekend. But still pretty bad.

Yeah agreed, lower budget films are still not doing that great but at least a decent percentage of them are making a profit.

 

Only big budget blockbuster I can think of that has been a hit is F9. AQPII and Conjuring 3 also did great but neither had a $100m+ budget. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

67

536

12.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

91

580

15.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 26 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
430	118	9513	4.52%	14	51

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 1215

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.50M

Fast 9 comp: 1.99M

Cruella comp: 1.99M

Adjusted Sonic comp: 1.90M

 

Just threw some comps in there. They are likely slightly inflated since I counted so late. The underperformance of Jungle Cruise here is showing. Unfortunately I may not be able to count on time tomorrow, so just throw me in the under 2M camp for now.

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

187

536

34.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

168

580

28.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1071	641	9284	11.54%	14	50

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.77M

Black Widow comp: 2.22M

Fast 9 comp: 2.65M

Cruella comp: 2.21M

AQP2 comp: 2.33M

Adjusted Sonic comp: 1.87M

 

Jungle Cruise underperformed here, and Fast 9 was counted an hour early, so I'll ignore those. The Megaplex data and Sonic really makes me wanna go against most of the comps, and say under 2M. But then again, my Denver comps were mostly pointing towards 4M+ for SS last week. I'll give a little leeway, but trust the comps and go with 2.1M.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Free Guy Harkins California T-1 Day

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	13	3,286	81	2.47%	$1,037	$12.80
Total	13	3,286	81	2.47%	$1,037	$12.80

 

So its confirmed that it won't release on Cine1 on THU with TSS holding all of the shows. That makes it incompatible with any other comp I had. Even using the normal screenings only, it is 30% of TSS and 33% of Jungle Cruise. 

 

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	80	12.68%	$960	$12.00
IMAX	2	890	18	2.02%	$270	$15.00
Total	11	1,521	98	6.44%	$1,230	$12.55

 

Completely opposite, in these two normal screenings are beating TSS by 38% though IMAX is well behind at 14%. Overall without Cine1, these two theaters are 47% of TSS.

 

Since release size is small I may track more theaters to get idea of whole chain as CA seems outlier.

 

Edit:

Arvada 14, CO - 21 (3 shows) 13.2% of BW

Arrowhead Fountains, PNX - 31 (4 shows) 11.9% of BW

 

The above two are actually quite solid considering BW had a very low multi, so 12-13% of BW T-1 day is equivalent of 18-20% final of BW.

 

No idea why CA is being so low. Just 7% of BW in normal screening, and just 3.8% when Cine1 are added.

 

At 17:30, Free Guy $3,328 on 16 shows with 261 admits. At same time 20.7% of The Suicide Squad. Already 3.22x it was in morning.  7.28% occupancy, with first 4 shows being 200 at 16.5%. Final number may be $6-6.5K. 

 

In Phoenix 2 theaters, $2,364 on 5 shows. 26.5% of TSS at same time.

 

Not so different in two now.

 

Addendum: In Arrowhead Fountains, PNX $1,440.

Edited August 13, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, Menor said:

Free Guy at 20,046 in the last run at MTC2. That's 0.7x JC at the same point which comps to 1.89m. Walkups have been pretty good. 

If so $2M is quite likely. Let's see where MTC1 ends.

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy Megaplex:

 

T-0 days Thursday: 1186(+753) tickets sold in 14 theaters

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.89M

Black Widow comp: 1.89M

 

Same number here as @Menor...

This seems really healthy. Assuming walk-ins take it to 1700+, that will be $24,500+. Even if it was 1% of Nationwide, that will be $2.4M