The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[grim22]

The Wonder average ticket price is ridiculously low. I am like 99% sure the surge it had was due to a major discounted group booking for some church or prayer group or similar.

[Subzero]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Love getting close to release week as we finally start getting to the point where comps are relevant and the same time before release. Deep Wang Saturday update:

- JL presales slightly above BvS at same point in time (Monday was the last BvS update, so that will be the final comp we get before Thursday), about 30% ahead of Suicide Squad and 90% ahead of Wonder Woman same point in time before release

- Fifty Shades does not look to be the mega presale monster anymore, sold less than 100k so far

- No idea what to make of Coco, will wait a week to see

- Wonder just stalled after that surge it had, remember last week when I said it was the same gross as Orient Express, its still almost literally the same number, added almost nothing this week

- Roman Israel up to 8 tickets sold

- TLJ is at about 75% of Rogue One's final number. Unlike other movies, Star Wars does not double on release week as presales are more frontloaded

 

 

This is exciting ...  here we go ...!!!

[MrGlass2]

6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

- JL presales slightly above BvS at same point in time (Monday was the last BvS update, so that will be the final comp we get before Thursday), about 30% ahead of Suicide Squad and 90% ahead of Wonder Woman same point in time before release

Deep Wang v EmpireCity: Dawn of Presales

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Subzero said:

 

This is exciting ...  here we go ...!!!

Wednesday and Thursday will be crucial for sure. The preview number will depend on the sales on those 2 days. The OW will depend on word of mouth (although the extended 10 day opening will tell a lot more about wom than the 3 days)

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Deep Wang v EmpireCity: Dawn of Presales

I have a hunch it's going to land somewhere in the middle of those predictions. 

 

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Wonder average ticket price is ridiculously low. I am like 99% sure the surge it had was due to a major discounted group booking for some church or prayer group or similar.

I'm surprised Sony didn't do Atom for The Star, that's going to do need all the help it can get and if Wonder beats it with lower pricing that will be super embarrassing. 

[Subzero]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wednesday and Thursday will be crucial for sure. The preview number will depend on the sales on those 2 days. The OW will depend on word of mouth (although the extended 10 day opening will tell a lot more about wom than the 3 days)

 

Yeah, WB picked a good slot for this I think (kids are out of schools)....hopefully with good WOM, these extended 10 days JL will make most of it's money.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I have a hunch it's going to land somewhere in the middle of those predictions. 

 

I'm surprised Sony didn't do Atom for The Star, that's going to do need all the help it can get and if Wonder beats it with lower pricing that will be super embarrassing. 

I’m thinking $20M OW for Wonder and $10M-$15M for The Star which is in line with tracking and similar to Sony Animation/Aardman’s Arthur Christmas.

[Brainiac5]

9 minutes ago, Subzero said:

 

Yeah, WB picked a good slot for this I think (kids are out of schools)....hopefully with good WOM, these extended 10 days JL will make most of it's money.

IMO if JL makes 160mil then 400 Domestic should be a done deal.In fact 430 Should be around its final number.

[mredman]

25 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Love getting close to release week as we finally start getting to the point where comps are relevant and the same time before release. Deep Wang Saturday update:

- JL presales slightly above BvS at same point in time (Monday was the last BvS update, so that will be the final comp we get before Thursday), about 30% ahead of Suicide Squad and 90% ahead of Wonder Woman same point in time before release

- Fifty Shades does not look to be the mega presale monster anymore, sold less than 100k so far

- No idea what to make of Coco, will wait a week to see

- Wonder just stalled after that surge it had, remember last week when I said it was the same gross as Orient Express, its still almost literally the same number, added almost nothing this week

- Roman Israel up to 8 tickets sold

- TLJ is at about 75% of Rogue One's final number. Unlike other movies, Star Wars does not double on release week as presales are more frontloaded

 

This is more like it. But what is with these conflicting reports. How was DW Thor numbers was they accurate ?

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, Brainiac5 said:

IMO if JL makes 160mil then 400 Domestic should be a done deal.In fact 430 Should be around its final number.

Yeah the trends continues ... MOS-291, SS-325, BvS-330, WW-413, JL-430+ .....

[Brainiac5]

Just now, Subzero said:

Yeah the trends continues ... MOS-291, SS-325, BvS-330, WW-413, JL-430+ .....

The Dceu does a good Job at retaining its Fanbase from film to film so I will not be shock if both JL and wW both have 400mil Domestic totals.

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, Brainiac5 said:

The Dceu does a good Job at retaining its Fanbase from film to film so I will not be shock if both JL and wW both have 400mil Domestic totals.

 

With 4 Films, it managed to conquer 3 levels--> 200s, 300s, 400s .....now hopefully JL can conquer the 500s ....

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, mredman said:

This is more like it. But what is with these conflicting reports. How was DW Thor numbers was they accurate ?

 

These are actual presale numbers from ONE chain. Maybe it is way underperforming comparatively at other chains? I am building a database of these numbers for easy lookup currently. Should have it in a nice form soon, can't share publicly of course due to Deep Wang's concerns.

 

Here's the previous movies so far

 

 

On 10/28/2017 at 2:33 PM, grim22 said:

Current JL sales is about 58% of current Thor sales.

 

We probably won’t get another update till Monday or Tuesday evening. At that point I can probably comp Thor to all recent movies.

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M

- SMH was 6.4M

- WW was 5.6M

- Deadpool was 4.5M

 

On 11/2/2017 at 5:13 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

If it matches perfectly with CW ratio it should open around 109m based on final presales. Using the slight discrepancy that the above movies had and applying it to Thor 3 would give an OW of 107-113. Let's see if it sticks closely to the correlation we've seen so far or is more of an outlier in the line of Deadpool. I am still sticking with 110 right now

 

[Brainiac5]

3 minutes ago, Subzero said:

 

With 4 Films, it managed to conquer 3 levels--> 200s, 300s, 400s .....now hopefully JL can conquer the 500s ....

Hopefully, I’m more  concerned with it crossing the 400domestic mark more than anything.

[mredman]

34 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

These are actual presale numbers from ONE chain. Maybe it is way underperforming comparatively at other chains? I am building a database of these numbers for easy lookup currently. Should have it in a nice form soon, can't share publicly of course due to Deep Wang's concerns.

 

Here's the previous movies so far

 

 

 

 

so fairly close to the accurate then. Would definitely be weird this chain has great sales and another has complete oposite. You should think they are about the same no matter what chain it is. These numbers are really good for JL

 

Where would you say JL opens to considering its even ahead of BvS and SS and 90% ahead of WW ?

That sound huge to me

Edited November 12, 2017 by mredman

[grim22]

On 10/28/2017 at 2:33 PM, grim22 said:

Current JL sales is about 58% of current Thor sales.

 

We probably won’t get another update till Monday or Tuesday evening. At that point I can probably comp Thor to all recent movies.

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M

- SMH was 6.4M

- Thor 3 was 6.1-6.2M

- WW was 5.6M

- Deadpool was 4.5M

 

As a comp, if JL stops presales right now, it will be at about 2.4-2.5M on the converted scale.

[mredman]

22 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

As a comp, if JL stops presales right now, it will be at about 2.4-2.5M on the converted scale.

what would that mean basically ?

what do you predict it will open to ?

 

 

[raegr]

38 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

As a comp, if JL stops presales right now, it will be at about 2.4-2.5M on the converted scale.

That's not good...

 

Is it?

 

 

[grim22]

Just now, raegr said:

That's not good...

 

Is it?

 

 

You know, maybe you do need a time out as you overreact to everything

 

[MrGamer]

14 minutes ago, raegr said:

That's not good...

 

Is it?