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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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HesAPooka Box Office Gold

HesAPooka

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/ant-man-and-the-wasp-box-office-preview-1202863737/

 

Quote

Box Office: ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ Heads to Supersized $80 Million Debut, ‘First Purge’ Aims for $25 Million

Quote

July looks to start strong as “Ant-Man and the Wasp” eyes a debut between $70 million and $80 million when it launches in 4,100 theaters on Friday.

 

Edited by HesAPooka
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
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The fourth installment in the “Purge” franchise — starring Y’lan Noel, Lex Scott Davis, Joivan Wade, Luna Lauren Velez, and Marisa Tomei — 

 

Oh my god, that's Marisa Tomei in that fucking horrendous wig??? :winomg:

 

Shit, now I kind of want to see it 🤔

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Oh my god, that's Marisa Tomei in that fucking horrendous wig??? :winomg:

 

Shit, now I kind of want to see it 🤔

lol you seriously didn't recognize her just from the trailer?

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)

For book keeping purposes obviously.

monday night before release 

 

JW2 30.3% 

I2 28.9

Sicario 7.3% 

Ant-Man 5.7% 

UD 5.4% 

 

Ill be honest and say I’m shocked that Ant-Man didn’t pass Sicario today. I think it should do it by tomorrow morning though for sure. Wouldn’t be surprised to wake up and see it in the double digits. Uncle Drew holding steady though! 

 

*i know the purge is walk up driven but I’m still kinda surprised it’s not on MT yet. Hopefully it get there by tomorrow night though. 

Edited by Nova
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

Here's the thing with Ant-Man - is it necessary before Avengers 4?  If fans think it isn't, some of the hopeful top numbers just won't deliver...

 

One thing AIW did was make Captain Marvel necessary....but nothing I saw in AIW tells me that I'll miss much if I give Ant Man a pass, so it really is gonna need to stand on its own 6 legs to make a high box office happen...

 

My kids have cooled a little on it (or they've gotten into other summer stuff), so not sure we're seeing it this weekend yet...

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Here's the thing with Ant-Man - is it necessary before Avengers 4?  If fans think it isn't, some of the hopeful top numbers just won't deliver...

 

One thing AIW did was make Captain Marvel necessary....but nothing I saw in AIW tells me that I'll miss much if I give Ant Man a pass, so it really is gonna need to stand on its own 6 legs to make a high box office happen...

 

My kids have cooled a little on it (or they've gotten into other summer stuff), so not sure we're seeing it this weekend yet...

Some AM&tW stuff will play a very important role in A4, but it seems clear that they're deliberately trying to market this as more of a stand alone palette cleanser.

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Eric is Quiet Global Phenomenon

Eric is Quiet

Posted
Posted

The First Purge (3-Day) 0 1065  
The First Purge (5-Day) 107 2042 5.24%
Ant-Man 343 3415 10.04%

 

Ant-Man comps (the following are final totals before previews, not at the same point in time):

37% of Thor: Ragnarok ($46.1M)

24% of Justice League ($22.9M)

96% of Coco ($48.8M)

8% of The Last Jedi ($18.7M)

171% of Jumanji ($62M)

7% of Black Panther ($14M)

159% of Ready Player One ($66.3M)

8% of Infinity War ($21.6M)

20% of Deadpool 2 ($25.5M)

32% of Solo ($26.8M)

13% of Incredibles 2 ($24.5M)

25% of Jurassic World ($37.2M)

 

Obviously, it's hard to compare since Ant-Man still has three full days to go. Thor and Jurassic World feel like the safest comparisons to make, both being walk-up driven franchise features with a family audience, and at least judging by  things right now, this should track to the Doctor Strange opening I've been predicting for months and months.

 

Purge only just added in showtimes for Thursday to Sunday about two or three hours ago, so all of its business is from Tuesday and Wednesday. It probably won't get a whole lot of business for the 3-Day weekend since the franchise is very frontloaded, but time will tell.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Jurassic World

3. Ant-Man

4. The First Purge

5. Sicario

I'm mostly curious how big the Wednesday-the other 4 days ratio of The First Purge's 5-day opening will be.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed
       
A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665
Blockers  504 1106 2931
Rampage 705 1508 4109
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133
Super Troopers 2825 3447 6881
I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423
Avengers: Infinity War 49836 54892 68826
Overboard 84 409 1044
Breaking In 727 1204 2899
Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010
Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212
Show Dogs 6 128 369
Book Club 836 1599 3283
SW: Solo 15855 15855 28533
Action Point  17 48 197
Upgrade  9 119 522
Adrift 63 308 1268
Oceans 8 3009 4372 11114
Hereditary 659 1178 3181
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520
Incredibles 2 20872 23430 39337
Tag 314 660 1448
Jurassic World 2 9310 12761 23,266
Sicaro 2 788 1282 3403
Uncle Drew 274 473 1201
Antman & The Wasp  6613    
Purge (WED OD) 2885    

 

AM&TW started picking up at the end of the day, averaging almost twice as many tickets from 10-12pm as during mid afternoon. Let's see if that continues tomorrow.

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Finnick Box Office Gold

Finnick

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Nova said:

For book keeping purposes obviously.

monday night before release 

 

JW2 30.3% 

I2 28.9

Sicario 7.3% 

Ant-Man 5.7% 

UD 5.4% 

 

Ill be honest and say I’m shocked that Ant-Man didn’t pass Sicario today. I think it should do it by tomorrow morning though for sure. Wouldn’t be surprised to wake up and see it in the double digits. Uncle Drew holding steady though! 

 

*i know the purge is walk up driven but I’m still kinda surprised it’s not on MT yet. Hopefully it get there by tomorrow night though. 

SMH didn't show up until Wednesday (02 days before its release ) on  MT.  AMATW already show up on Monday. Taking on account SMH is more front-loaded than Ant-Man and the tracking between 70-$80M. I think Ant-Man is looking just fine and maybe doing more!!

Edited by Finnick
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Did a seat count for AM&TW tonight because I had the time and was curious.  Probably just go ahead and bite the bullet and post one the rest of the week through Thr.

 

I don't have the daily sale info for today (though I know approx how much it sold in the last four days).

 

====

 

Ant Man & The Wasp Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

95

8000

10023

20.18%

 

Seats sold in the last four days:        586

 

.2002x as many tickets sold as Infinity War three days before the premiere.

.4483x as many tickets sold as Black Panther three days before the premiere.

.4630x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 three days before the premiere. 

.4743x as many tickets sold as Solo three days before the premiere. 

.7041x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 three days before the premiere. 

 

Full Comparison of Stat Blocks in Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

IW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

6

151

3858

13963

72.37%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          549

 

BP:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

6

81

3766

8279

54.51%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          311

 

DP2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

127

9812

14181

30.81%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          374

 

Solo:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

103

6745

11010

38.74%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          196

 

JW2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

118

9224

12097

23.75%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:           443

 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, TalismanRing said:
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed
       
A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665
Blockers  504 1106 2931
Rampage 705 1508 4109
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133
Super Troopers 2825 3447 6881
I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423
Avengers: Infinity War 49836 54892 68826
Overboard 84 409 1044
Breaking In 727 1204 2899
Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010
Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212
Show Dogs 6 128 369
Book Club 836 1599 3283
SW: Solo 15855 15855 28533
Action Point  17 48 197
Upgrade  9 119 522
Adrift 63 308 1268
Oceans 8 3009 4372 11114
Hereditary 659 1178 3181
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520
Incredibles 2 20872 23430 39337
Tag 314 660 1448
Jurassic World 2 9310 12761 23,266
Sicaro 2 788 1282 3403
Uncle Drew 274 473 1201
Antman & The Wasp  6613    
Purge (WED OD) 2885    

 

AM&TW started picking up at the end of the day, averaging almost twice as many tickets from 10-12pm as during mid afternoon. Let's see if that continues tomorrow.

The Purge being behind Hereditary is a tad concerning, but it’s bound to be extremely walkup based.

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