The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Lothar]

Kind of strange. I noticed both Bumblebee and Marry Poppins selling together at same pace.

Whenever there's Bumblebee's ticket sold there is also MPR's ticket.

[el sid]

Just to fix it as long as it lasts :

MT at the moment:
#1 Creed II 18.6%
#2 Ralph 2 17.7%
#3 The Grinch 9.5%
#4 FB 2 9%
#5 BR 7.7%
 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours

Since: 2018-11-27 07:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

 

RANK PERCENT TICKETS MOVIE

1 21.281% 11498 Creed II

2 16.417% 8870 Ralph Breaks the Internet

3 12.904% 6972 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald

4 07.879% 4257 Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)

5 07.685% 4152 Bohemian Rhapsody

6 05.532% 2989 Widows (2018)

7 05.514% 2979 Instant Family (2018)

8 04.805% 2596 Robin Hood (2018)

9 03.824% 2066 Green Book

10 01.708% 923 A Star Is Born (2018)

11 01.340% 724 2.0

12 01.072% 579 Mary Poppins Returns (2018)

13 01.042% 563 Aquaman

14 00.790% 427 Overlord (2018)

15 00.727% 393 Boy Erased

16 00.676% 365 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

17 00.546% 295 The Possession of Hannah Grace

18 00.535% 289 The Favourite

19 00.348% 188 Nobodys Fool

20 00.329% 178 The Front Runner

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App

 

Spoiler

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922
Possession of Hanna Grace	105	285	893

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Possession of Hanna Grace	105	285	893
Dec 14st
Spider-Verse			844
Mortal Engiines
The Mule
Dec 19th
Mary Poppins	1,016	616	604
Dec 21st
Aquaman	733	570	586
Bumblebee	174	229	159

[Valonqar]

Holy shit, MPR!

[WrathOfHan]

Wow, Hannah Grace isn’t far behind Slender Man 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Wow, Hannah Grace isn’t far behind Slender Man 

Yes, but Slender Man is PG-13 and Hanna Grace is R and they tend to have different pre-sale patterns, especially in horror.

 

Then again Hell Fest is Rated R and it's doing better than that.  But if you comp it to Hereditary then it's doing much worse..

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by TalismanRing

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Yes, but Slender Man is PG-13 and Hanna Grace is R and they tend to have different pre-sale patterns, especially in horror.

 

Then again Hell Fest is Rated 5 and it's doing better than that.  But if you comp it to Hereditary then it's doing much worse..

 

I’ll be interested to see how it performs at our theaters tonight.

[ThomasNicole]

MPR pre-sales apparently are much stronger than i expect for a family movie. This movie is gonna be HUGE, and also Aquaman.

 

Bumblebee seems really weak, let’s see if it can recover...

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

When is social media and reviews dated for Bumblebee? They need to get those out like the others have. 

[filmlover]

Anything higher than the last Transformers movie would have to be considered a win for Bumblebee. Spin-offs usually perform weaker than the main series and this one is representing a franchise that completely collapsed with its most recent film.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Anything higher than the last Transformers movie would have to be considered a win for Bumblebee. Spin-offs usually perform weaker than the main series and this one is representing a franchise that completely collapsed with its most recent film.

this. people should put things into perspective.  this is a spin-off to a collapsed franchise so expectations should be reasonably low. 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Is this any chance that the Aquaman numbers are a bit deflated because of the Amazon screenings?

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Is this any chance that the Aquaman numbers are a bit deflated because of the Amazon screenings?

No

 

The Aquaman Numbers are good, nothing to worry about

[grim22]

https://deadline.com/2018/11/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-christmas-box-office-projections-1202510967/

 

Quote

‘Aquaman’ & ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ Eye $70M+ Christmas Stretch Hauls

The Christmas menu of Warner Bros.’ Aquaman, Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns, Paramount’s Bumblebee, Universal’s Welcome to Marwen and STX’s Second Act hit tracking today, and for many of these movies, it’s about the long road instead of the traditional 3-day weekend, and that’s because moviegoing surges after Christmas Day. Despite Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi hoarding most of the weekend dollars last year, such movies as Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Fox’s The Greatest Showman respectively made 91% and 95% of their business after their opening weekends last holiday season.

Mary Poppins Returns, the sequel to the 1964 musical film which won five Oscars including best actress for Julie Andrews, is launching on Wednesday Dec. 19 to get ahead of Aquaman, which opens that Friday, and industry estimates believe the Disney-branded pic could deliver a first week in the $70M range (Christmas falls on the following Tuesday after the Rob Marshall movie opens).  Total awareness and unaided awareness (the poll category where respondents bring up a film’s title without being prodded, and off which studios make their ad spend decisions) is best with women under/over 25 at this point in time.

 

Aquaman in its five day run from Friday to Christmas Tuesday is expected to bring in between $60M-$70M. Before anyone can scream that’s lower than Justice League ($111.9M first five-days), many rival distribs expect this $160M production to leg the holiday out. We’re hearing that in regards to the paid tickets for the Dec. 15 Amazon Prime preview of the James Wan-directed movie at major cinema circuits, 65%-70% have already been sold. Also working in this film’s favor compared to other DC movies is the fact that Wan brings his Conjuring fanbase. Before the arrival of Disney’s Star Wars movies over the last three Christmas, Warner Bros. held the top December opening record with 2012’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey at $84.6M.  Aquaman is solid across the board for men and women in unaided awareness, though the latter category with a number around 30 is close to where Captain America: Winter Soldier was ($95M three-day opening).

Also solid is Paramount’s Bumblebee which looks to take $40M in its first Friday-Tuesday

 

[Valonqar]

what what? didn't Aquaman track for 100M OW just a day ago? So what is this 60-70M 5 day? 

[Premium George]

Just now, Valonqar said:

what what? didn't Aquaman track for 100M OW just a day ago? So what is this 60-70M 5 day? 

No, it never tracked for $100m.

[Valonqar]

Just now, Premium George said:

No, it never tracked for $100m.

so where did that number come from? I swear people discussed it yesterday. I did not dream it. It's Bullshit. I did not dream it. I did naht. 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

what what? didn't Aquaman track for 100M OW just a day ago? So what is this 60-70M 5 day? 

 

That wasn't tracking. That was tracking analysts saying it could do 100M as opposed to actual tracking numbers. Actual tracking numbers just came in today, all movies hit tracking 3 weeks before release and studios get updated tracking Mondays and Thursday.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

I guess that's solid tracking for Bumblebee. Still hasn't upped the marketing yet though. 

 

Need 80m 3 day for Aquaman for reasons. 

 

Guess people were right about Mary Poppins being huge. At least DOM wise. 

 

Also I hate 5 day tracking.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

https://deadline.com/2018/11/aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-bumblebee-christmas-box-office-projections-1202510967/

 

 

Also says that Second Act and Welcome to Marwen are looking at low teens openings (personally I think they debut lower than that).